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Did Perry Ellis exceed expectations in 2012-13?

If you watched a lot of NCAA Tournament games last year, you most likely heard the story of Butler graduate manager Drew Cannon.

In short, Cannon was put on Brad Stevens' staff as an advanced statistics expert, going through numbers to help Butler put its best lineup on the floor at all times.

Before Cannon was snatched up by one of the game's smartest coaches, though, he was guest-writing for KenPom.com, submitting blog posts last summer that gave statistical projections for the nation's top players.

He used different formulas for returners (taking into account past stats, basic demographics, team stats, high school rankings, mock draft projections and awards) and freshmen (basic statistical information along with a few other secret ingredients added in), but in essence, he gave us a baseline on what to expect statistically from individual players.

I want to use this blog post to evaluate KU freshman Perry Ellis' performance last year to see if he went above or below what was expected of him, but first, let's look at just how close Cannon was to projecting KU center Jeff Withey's actual performance.

Kansas center Jeff Withey puts up a shot over North Carolina forward James Michael McAdoo in the first half on Sunday, March 24, 2013 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo..

Kansas center Jeff Withey puts up a shot over North Carolina forward James Michael McAdoo in the first half on Sunday, March 24, 2013 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo.. by Mike Yoder

Jeff Withey: Projection vs. Performance

Jeff Withey: Projection vs. Performance by Jesse Newell

No wonder Cannon is on Stevens' staff; it's almost like he had the answers to the test given to him beforehand. Cannon's projections almost are the exact replica of Withey's production at KU his senior year. Perhaps the only exceptions are that Withey fouled a touch less than expected and made a few more twos.

Still, it's amazing to think that a formula could so closely predict human performance.

Switching over to Ellis, let's take a look at his projections compared to his performance a year ago.

Kansas forward Perry Ellis comes in for a dunk against Iowa State during the first half of the semifinal round of the Big 12 tournament on Friday, March 15, 2013 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

Kansas forward Perry Ellis comes in for a dunk against Iowa State during the first half of the semifinal round of the Big 12 tournament on Friday, March 15, 2013 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri. by Nick Krug

Perry Ellis: Projection vs. Performance

Perry Ellis: Projection vs. Performance by Jesse Newell

Though Ellis' minutes were limited (he averaged 13.6 minutes per game), we can see from the numbers that he greatly exceeded Cannon's projections, especially on the offensive end. He averaged 1.14 points per possessions used while taking on a larger offensive load (ending 21.9 percent of KU's offensive possessions when he was on the floor) than expected.

Here are a few other positives from Ellis' numbers:

Turnovers: This is where Ellis overachieved most. He gave the ball away on just 10.7 percent of his ended possessions, and though it's often overlooked, that kind of ball security from a big man greatly enhances his offensive value. Ellis had just 20 turnovers in 503 minutes last season.

• Free throws: Ellis also helped his offensive output by getting to the free-throw line often (a 52.5 free-throw rate is a solid number) and making those shots once he was there (his 73.8-percent accuracy was nearly 10 percentage points better than his projection).

Defensive rebounding: Though KU coach Bill Self often pushed Ellis to be more aggressive, his defensive rebounding percentage ended up well above average. Ellis' 19.9-percent defensive rebounding percentage was second on the team behind Withey and much higher than his projected total of 16 percent.

If we're using the projections as a guide, here are two areas of improvement for Ellis in the offseason:

Kansas forward Perry Ellis gets up to block a shot by Baylor center Isaiah Austin during the first half on Monday, Jan. 14, 2013 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Kansas forward Perry Ellis gets up to block a shot by Baylor center Isaiah Austin during the first half on Monday, Jan. 14, 2013 at Allen Fieldhouse. by Nick Krug

Overall defense: Ellis wasn't a disruptive defensive player last season. His block percentage was barely half of his projection (2.1 percent), while his steal percentage also wasn't as high as you'd expect for a player with his quickness (1.8 percent).

Two-point shooting: Ellis finished with below-projection two-point numbers despite an impressive end to the season. In his final seven games, Ellis was 30-for-46 on twos (65.2 percent), which lets you know just how much he struggled early. As an undersized 4, Ellis will have to continue his evolution offensively, learning how to create space and also avoid blocks against taller competition than he faced in high school.

The numbers above indicate that Ellis is ready to take the next step for KU in 2013-14. He's already a good offensive player — thanks to his low turnover count and ability to create and make free throws — and with some improvements defensively and on two-point jumpers, he could quickly turn into an all-conference-type player with an increase in playing time next season.

More from Jesse Newell

  • Here's what KU's 2013 recruiting class would have looked like in previous years
  • Seen it? The nation's reaction to top recruit Andrew Wiggins choosing Kansas
  • Here's what type of player KU is getting in Hunter Mickelson
  • Ranking the top 10 dunks of 2012-13
  • How a fingertip, a late rotation and a great player contributed to Michigan's frantic comeback over KU
  • ;

    Comments

    clevelandjayhawker 1 year, 2 months ago

    Did Perry Ellis exceed expectations in 2012-13?

    Nov: Yes

    Dec and Jan: No

    Feb and March: Yes

    2

    Suzi Marshall 1 year, 2 months ago

    Jan (about half), Feb, March (and April) all all that matters. Nov, Dec and some of Jan is alll about getting prepared for Conference and the NCAAs. You can't expect a Freshman to pickup the intensity of Conference play immediately.

    0

    GabrielMichael 1 year, 2 months ago

    I'm curious what the projections are for next year...

    2

    Mike Barnhart 1 year, 2 months ago

    You'll have to ask Brad Stephens!

    0

    Chris Bailey 1 year, 2 months ago

    Perry did a great job last year. I was impressed with him more and more as the season progressed. I think he will improve quite a bit this season and by the time he's a senior he will be an all-american and own many of KU's records. Yes I said senior. I don't think he will leave early. How fitting a kid from Kansas ends up writing the record books. Rock Chalk Perry Ellis!

    7

    fearthephog512 1 year, 2 months ago

    Agreed. I think a year with Withey and Young did great things for him too, particularly in the confidence and basketball IQ realm. Such an great ambassador for KU in general and is very friendly on campus — very glad he decided to be a Jayhawk!

    2

    Kevin Huffman 1 year, 2 months ago

    I ALMOST agree. I think there's a slight possibility that he could leave after three years IF he's already earned his degree after that time.

    1

    jhawkrulz 1 year, 2 months ago

    How about all the starters?

    And next year...Selden and Wiggins. Those would be interesting before and after...although that could say whether or not Self is doing what is expected, better, or worse for his OAD.

    0

    Dirk Medema 1 year, 2 months ago

    Made me wonder if Withey was the only player with stats that corroborated the theory.

    0

    jhawkrulz 1 year, 2 months ago

    I meant to note, this was very helpful, but a few things that would have made it even more valuable is if we had an average for that position, a range for that position. I looked at the 10.7 and didn't know whether that was bad or good. You explained it was good. However, if I had some note that said for 4s 9.3-12.2 was the percentage, but 11.1 was the average, it would mean more.

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    Jesse Newell 1 year, 2 months ago

    Sure, have no problem giving more context.

    The average turnover percentage is about 20 percent.

    According to KenPom, if Ellis had played 40 percent of KU's minutes instead of 33 percent, he would have ranked fifth in the Big 12 in turnover percentage out of 67 qualifiers last year. Only Baylor's Cory Jefferson would have been better among big men in the conference.

    Another way to look at it: Out of KU's rotation players, Ellis had the best turnover percentage at 10.7 percent. Ben McLemore was second at 17.2 percent.

    It sounds obvious, but if a player can produce offensively without turning it over, he greatly enhances his value to the team.

    3

    jhawkrulz 1 year, 2 months ago

    Thanks Jesse...Again I didn't mean that as a criticism...your piece is awesome. I'm sure your looking for more and more ways to give insight. You just feed our want for more and more sports.

    Thanks for the article...especially in the middle of June when basically the CWS is the only thing on. July is a dead period, so please start thinking of some articles, we junkies need it.

    1

    nuleafjhawk 1 year, 2 months ago

    I think expectations for this young man were exceedingly high last year. Sure, he was an awesome high school player, but we all know that the University of Kansas plays at a little different level.

    I liked him right away, and once the light bulb came on (as far as being more aggressive) we saw the guy on the court that some thought we would see from day one. I was always glad when Perry was in the game. I felt confident that he would play well, and if nothing else, not give the game away with mental errors. I could not say that about everyone on the team last year. Even guys with much more experience. But enough of that.

    Yes, he definitely exceeded my expectations last year. I expect him to exceed them again this year.

    2

    Mark Lindrud 1 year, 2 months ago

    The reason I say he didn't exceed expectations is we really thought he'd come in, start and average double digits. The potential really started to show late season, but a lot of major growth comes between the freshman and sophomore year.

    We know he's going to be really good in time. Now with a lot of athletic players around him, a year in the system, the spotlight on Wiggins along with the incoming freshman, Perry will continue to grow and shine even more this season.

    0

    thmdmph 1 year, 2 months ago

    It'd be interesting to see what the projections are for next year's crew. Wonder how Self's meeting with Wiggins about his summer schedules and his timing for coming to Lawrence played out.

    0

    REHawk 1 year, 2 months ago

    Ugly stuff. Lategame stuffage!

    0

    beaujvanbeek 1 year, 2 months ago

    Fabulous article. Obviously it is your job to write these articles, but your level of analysis is amazing. You are definitely going above and beyond.

    5

    Colby Hebert 1 year, 2 months ago

    I think Perry Ellis is a very intriguing and unique player. He has a face up / drive around you game, at the 4. I think it just took awhile to adjust his style to the college level. By the end of the year he was putting it all together. The sky is the limit for him I believe.

    Jesse, you cannot leave us to be a advanced statistics expert for any college program unless it is KU, ok? :)

    1

    hailtoku 1 year, 2 months ago

    Perry did not exceed expections for the 2012-2013 season.

    He exceeded expections in the 2012 Big 12 Tournament. That's all.

    2

    KUFan90 1 year, 2 months ago

    I wish there was a thumbs down button for posts like this one.

    2

    hailtoku 1 year, 2 months ago

    So in Decemeber you were thinking to yourself, "Man, Perry Ellis is a force!"?

    0

    nuleafjhawk 1 year, 2 months ago

    He was probably thinking "Man, Perry Ellis is a freshman".

    3

    Sam Constance 1 year, 2 months ago

    What reasonable and/or intelligent fan was expecting Perry Ellis, freshman PF, to be a "force" last year?

    Clearly not even the EXPERT on such matters thought he would be a "force", so perhaps your expectations were either unrealistic, uninformed, or some combination of the two.

    0

    actorman 1 year, 2 months ago

    No, I think what most of us were thinking is, "He's a freshman and he's learning." Most people are smart enough to realize that it's extremely difficult to just step in and be brilliant from your first day in Division 1.

    0

    DCLawHawk 1 year, 2 months ago

    Great article Jesse! I would love to read more along these lines. The retrospective on players over Self's first decade will be good too, but if you can generate more articles like this one I will read all of them.

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    Joe Baker 1 year, 2 months ago

    I would like to see Tharpe's #s and if possible, the entire projections for the team or at least the starters and mabye 2-3 backups:

    Tharpe - Mason, RS, could bump Frankamp to backup PG Selden - Greene, the 2 will be a frosh either way or you could have White (speed?) at 2 Wiggins - White or Greene Ellis - Traylor, Greene will play some 4, unless Traylor works on his shot Lucas - Embiid

    White and maybe Mason RS

    Does anyone else see a RS? I guess it depends on who wins out during preseason. Greene is the most versatile with his size and skills. Most of all, his bball IQ is above normal.

    0

    Joseph Kuebel 1 year, 2 months ago

    Embiid redshirt?!? No. Just no. White possibly, maybe even Greene although I don't expect it. I give Mason the most likely to redshirt.

    0

    Tony Bandle 1 year, 2 months ago

    If HCBS redshirted the #1 rated center and 6th rated player in the class of 2013, I think a few more things would red or redder than Jo Jo's jersey.

    That would include Bill's face, the fans eyes and Big Man U's butt!!!!

    Frankly, I am more worried about JoJo playing himself into a OAD rather than a Red Shirt!!

    0

    clevelandjayhawker 1 year, 2 months ago

    Im cool with him Selden and Wiggins being OAD on one condition....take a guess what that is.

    0

    David Leathers 1 year, 2 months ago

    How about 2 conditions? National Championship AND Tyus Jones/ Jahlil Okafor combo...

    0

    KUFan90 1 year, 2 months ago

    I think White more than Mason is the RS candidate.

    1

    Joe Baker 1 year, 2 months ago

    No Embiid redshirt. We need all our bigs. I'm thinking either White and/or Mason. Frankamp is Heinrich 2.0. White is really passive and seems to need a bit more time at the D1 level to adjust. He's a great player and has a huge upside. However, developmentally, a RS would serve him well and like Rel, would serve the team well too.

    0

    Chris Shaw 1 year, 2 months ago

    Can we see EJ's projections? Let's correct that...please don't ever show EJ's projections because I don't won't to break my computer and ipad.

    0

    Joe Baker 1 year, 2 months ago

    LOL- I love EJ and he was a great Jayhawk. I will always appreciate much of what he did. However, I mentioned in another post that he was never the same after his knee, losing some quickness and pop. He was never the same as his frosh and soph yr. I would go a bit further and say he lost his competitive edge, becoming a bit complacent at times. The ISU game was the EJ that we all knew and wanted, but didn't get him the whole year. I'm really disappointed for his senior yr and hope he finds a place either in the NBA, CBA or even Europe.

    1

    actorman 1 year, 2 months ago

    I know you mean that as a compliment, right Geezer?

    0

    Steve Gantz 1 year, 2 months ago

    The real question is did Jesse exceed expectations in 2012-2013?

    1

    Sam Constance 1 year, 2 months ago

    I would have gone with no. But only because my expectations for Jessie are always quite high, based on my experience with what great work he does.

    So I would say no, he simply met my incredibly lofty expectations.

    What a bum! /sarcasm

    1

    Jack Jones 1 year, 2 months ago

    Yes,yes,yes,no, yes,no,yes, yes, yes, no,yes.......

    0

    Hawk8086 1 year, 2 months ago

    I believe that Perry exceeded expectations in the last part of the season. His production during this time, given the minutes he played, was fantastic. His quickness for his size, and shooting touch are unbelievable, I think. Also, although some have disagreed, I think his jumping ability is good. I'm very confident that he will continue to get better this year. Heck, if for no other reason, Self will have to allow him to play through his mistakes.

    0

    jaybate 1 year, 2 months ago

    I am less interested in how accurate Drew Cannon was in predicting how Perry performed than in why my expectations (and so many others') for Perry were so much higher than Drew Cannon's were.

    Drew Cannon's realistic expectations were arrived at by analyzing data. It only makes sense that his expectations were reasonably accurate.

    But my too-high expectations for Perry Ellis were based almost entirely on views of Perry acquired through the filter of mainstream media.

    Put more succinctly, my too high expectations were triggered by media hype that I did not try to temper with empirical research.

    The reason this phenomenon interests me so much is that it feeds directly into a hypothesis of mine about the interplay between media hype and gambling.

    I have hypothesized for quite a few years now that the main stream media over-hypes certain teams and players and coaches in the big media markets, especially those on the eastern seaboard, while underhyping other teams, coaches and players. Further I have hypothesized that this hyping stimulates betting by loyal fans of these teams. But I have also suggested that the hyping not only stimulates bettors, but it also builds in a false, overly optimistic expectation in fans of these overhyped teams. In short, the hype makes more bettors bet and bet over optimistically on these teams.

    Jesse, this story of yours makes clear the awesome power of mainstream media to hype up unrealistic expectations that the gaming industry can then exploit.

    Drew Cannon was right to go to work for Butler. The media-gaming complex was probably never going to embrace and promote a statistician whose work would fundamentally dilute the hype effect, if his stories were widely disseminated.

    2

    Matt Kenton 1 year, 2 months ago

    I have often thought the same thing and the '07 football team pretty much proves it. They covered the spread 10 games IN A ROW. You would think after about 5 or 6, Vegas would wise up, but no.

    I am mindful of the slight and ready to take advantage of the delay in Vegas coming around. But then you have the Royals. A month ago, I was kicking myself for not betting the over on season wins, which was set at 79. With the overhauled rotation a .500 season is a sure thing, right? Not the sad little team from the Midwest that barely gets a mention on Sportscenter, and can only dream of playing a game on national TV.

    0

    JayHawkFanToo 1 year, 2 months ago

    You have the common misconception of how Vegas works. Vegas does not care who wins or who loses, how many times a team has covered the spread and they don't even care what the spread is as long as the bets are balanced. Vegas is not in the business of hyping teams, they are in the business of making money.
    You probably know that the spread moves depending on how bets are placed. If too many people are betting on the under, then Vegas lowers the spread so more people will bet on the over and the money is balanced. If bets are uneven in the wrong side, they can end up taking a bath. The only time Vegas is guaranteed to win is when the bets are perfectly balanced and they make money on the "vig" i.e. the commission they charge from everyone that bets.
    Vegas does not buy the hype, they have they have their own researchers and sources of "inside" information. Unlike reporters, they truly put their money where their mouth are.

    3

    Matt Kenton 1 year, 2 months ago

    Where are the people placing the big bets that move lines?

    By "Vegas" you are referring to sportsbooks. I am referring to the entire machine.

    0

    jaybate 1 year, 2 months ago

    JHFT,

    You appear to have the common, naive misconception that the gaming industry operates entirely based on mathematics. Your POV is what I like to call the Orthodox Gambling Religion POV. You swallow all of their rationalizations hook line and sinker without remembering that the bottom line of the gaming industry has always been and will always be about shearing sheep. My, god, stop believing in these sheep shearers and start understanding they are bunch of cost shifting hustlers that are endlessly looking for ways to play suckers. Did you not ever read Damon Runyon, or what? He's a good Kansan, albehe from the Little Apple, before making his name in the Big Apple. Runyan laid it all out between the laughs for anyone that cares.

    In all risk management games from gambling games, to insurance, the heuristics of effective and savvy management are:

    a) devise a means of ensuring solvency (mathematical probabilities)

    b) then devise a means of leveraging up from solvency to minimum yield (use of media hype to increase bettors; and

    c) then situationally exploit misinformed expectations for profit maximization (rigging games with asymmetric information).

    Welcome to the real world, JHFT.

    0

    JayHawkFanToo 1 year, 2 months ago

    Jaybate,
    Are you actually quoting Damon Runyon, the writer that penned Guys and dolls in 1932 and died in 1946, as a source of how the betting works in 2013 Vegas?
    A lot has changed in Vegas since the 1940s, and by Vegas I mean the legal gambling industry and not the bookies outside strip joints. The mob does not run the casinos and they do not send thugs to fix games. Casinos are run by corporations accountable to shareholders and with strict adherence to the law. The gambling industry in Nevada is probably the most heavily regulated business and enforcement is stringent; it has to be to maintain credibility. You are aware that in recent memory, all attempts to influence betting were not perpetrated by the gambling industry; in fact, they are the ones most negatively affected by it. Welcome to the Real world circa 2013, Jaybate.
    In my post I referred uniquely to sports betting which depends solely on proper placement of the betting lines to generate profits. The gambling portion including slots and board games is tilted towards the house and they will make money by gamblers just showing up; Blackjack gives you the best odds, by the way.
    One interesting thing is that in you long winded post, you failed to rebut or prove wrong any of the points I made. Interesting.
    Now, you can have the last word with an essay on the influence of 1920s flappers in relation to flopping in the 2013 NBA. No malice intended.

    1

    Allen Shepard 1 year, 2 months ago

    The odds bet on the come line in craps is better than blackjack depending on how high the allowed table multiple.

    0

    Phognatic 1 year, 2 months ago

    Agreed Jaybate. The interesting question is not Drew Cannon's accuracy (which is impressive with the small sample size provided by Jesse), but understanding the disconnect between our expectations and Ellis' freshman production.

    Oh, how I do love your "hypotheses" which often make for intertaining reading, but sadly this one will need to remain on the cutting room floor. Undeniably mass media outlets shape our opinions and overhype some and underhype others with underlying media market and monetary considerations. (Hyping the mediocre Knicks/Jets makes more money than talking about the Pacers/Seahawks) But if you are suggesting there is a mastermind behind the scenes manipulating all these enumerable media outlets I'm not sure I can be convinced. I can (and do) believe/agree that there is an association, but intentional cause and effect, eh? I think writers and Jayhawk fans alike get the hype machine going all to well on their own. Oh how the masses are excitable (especially during offseason speculation about incoming freshman).

    0

    jayhawker97 1 year, 2 months ago

    great article, Jesse. thanks for the insights. I wonder if minutes played taken into account in the formula. also, those two points, it would be nice if it's broken down to inside the charge circle. he surely missed a bunch of bunnies - something he's improved of late games, if i recall.

    0

    leonard 1 year, 2 months ago

    Perry Ellis in 2013-2014?

    Easily 16ppg and 10 rebounds.

    0

    Kevin Huffman 1 year, 2 months ago

    10 Rebounds?!?!?!

    I doubt that. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Black averages more Rebounds than him.

    Also a bit high on the ppg.

    I'd expect something more like 14.6 & 7.9

    0

    Kevin Huffman 1 year, 2 months ago

    While his turnover rate was low, he had an AWFUL LOT of times where he fumbled the ball but didn't turn it over....got it back, but it disrupted the offensive flow.

    1

    Kevin Huffman 1 year, 2 months ago

    Most Dynamic Passer Josh Perkins (Aurora, Colo./Regis Jesuit) 2014, PG, 6-foot-3, 175 pounds Status: Took a visit to UCLA this weekend and has Kentucky, USC, UConn, and Syracuse getting seriously involved. Perkins is the hottest name on the west coast after an electrifying spring. The point guard can stroke the 3-point shot and easily blew by most defenders (with the exception of Mudiay) with his slick crossover. His passing is as high-level as is his vision, but he has a tendency to have a flair for the spectacular rather than execute the efficient play. Overall though, he is a major talent.

    ****Huh?!?!?! I knew of the UCLA interest as he had interest in New Mexico before Alford left for UCLA. But had NEVER heard of interest from ANY of the other four before. Yet the author makes NO mention of interest that had been ovious in the past from Kansas, Gonzaga or San Diego State. Nice!!!!

    ****This was on a write-up of some Pangos Camp out at Long Beach. The good news is in their list of schools for Rashad Vaughn we were listed 1st!! If they landed him or S. Johnson (mutual interest in player & univ. also expressed...though sounds like he's going to eliminate KU or Duke form his consideration), could be interesting in minutes breakdown if Selden weren't to be an OAD.

    I still think Jones & Okafor for the recruiting class for the '14/'15 season is a "pipe dream", but I'd be ecstatic if we could say land Perkins & Vaughn.

    Ideally, they land a PG that can be groomed to take over for Tharpe and yet still be with the team another 3-4 years down the road (why Perkins is a better fir than Jones, who COULD actually be an OAD). Then if you can't land a top 25 - 30 SG/SF to fill the departing spot of Wiggins, then effort should be made to find a big for the departing T. Black....of course, that could be less of a concern w/ Mickelson coming in the following season too though so.....

    Again, I'm STILL really hopeful on Josh Perkins......then one of Rashad Vaughn, S. Johnson, M. Pope, Leron Black, Ahmed Hill, Kelly Oubre, or Craig Victor

    Of course, I'd most want Justise Winslow (to me him & Perkins would be PERFECT fits), but he's seemed to have made no secret of his preference for EITHER Arizona or Duke.

    0

    Greg Lux 1 year, 2 months ago

    The Question is WILL Perry exceed next years expectations? With all the recruits coming in and a guy named AW on board. What do you expect from Perry next year? My answer is: I expect Perry to be a very quick skilled player who compliments the other players with balance scoring because of his excellent scoring range. Perry has great speed and with the other members of the young team will excel at quickness and fast-break opportunities. I see next years team being extremely fast with exceptional range. Knowing HCBS it will be a lock down defensive team and Perry has shown his ability to block out and rebound. He will only be better this year. The future is bright and getting brighter. I understand AW will be here only one year, but the national attention he will garner will be extremely helpful in future recruiting. UK's time is limited once players see the difference between a school that only recruits and a school that recruits and coaches players making them better and giving them a better chance of a future in the NBA. The future is bright for KU, Perry and a whole team of talent we have not seen for a few years.

    Rock Chalk

    0

    Alex Peekeaton 1 year, 2 months ago

    "UK's time is limited once players see the difference between a school that only recruits and a school that recruits and coaches players making them better and giving them a better chance of a future in the NBA."

    You must be on to something - Calipari can't coach or develop players. Have you heard of Josh Harrellson or Willie Cauley-Stein? I'm sure no one here would have thought Cauley-Stein would have been a projected mid 1st round pick in 2013 NBA draft and a projected lottery selection in 2014? Do you think Bill Self gives players a better chance of a future in the NBA than John Calipari?

    0

    JayHawkFanToo 1 year, 2 months ago

    BBall2012. Cauley-Stein WAS a projected "Lottery" selection in 2013 before he decided to stay, and he STILL IS a "Lottery" selection in 2014 (as high as #5). I don't like Calipari either but in this one you are way off.

    0

    Sam Constance 1 year, 2 months ago

    Jeezus H.

    You mean this Josh Harrellson? http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6439/josh-harrellson http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Har...

    You mean the one who has been waived twice in two years and now plays in Puerto Rico? Man, what a PLAYER!

    He sure had a nice little run in the 2011 tournament, but clearly he was playing above his head, likely pushed on by the fact that Calipari had him practicing against a professional basketball player (illegally) in Enes Kanter.

    This particular subject is one where UK fans like yourself look the stupidest. Calipari is a great recruiter, and consistently gets the top talent in any given class, yet you try to act as if he has "developed" these players, most of whom would have gone to the NBA straight out of high school were it not for the rule. That's the reason you have to cite pushovers like Harrellson, because on some level, you know that it's disingenuous to give Calipari credit for "developing" guys like Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins.

    Also... what happened with Daniel Orton? Is he a product of the Calipari school of player development?

    0

    lv_jhwk 1 year, 2 months ago

    I think a lot of posters are confusing their own projections with the statistical ones. Many expected Perry to come in last year and immediately become a vital part of the rotation, and made their disappointment known when it took him some time to show signs of doing just that.

    I could be wrong, but the numbers Jesse gives from Drew Cannon predicted a slightly above average season for Perry as a freshman (a 100 rating being the norm). All in all, just about how his year did in fact wind up.

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    Hawk8086 1 year, 2 months ago

    I hope you are right about this team being a lock down defensive team. I agree that with the athletic ability, and, it appears, the right attitude from the young guys that we have the potential to develop into one. But, can the young guys learn quickly enough to achieve this? Will Embiid develop quickly enough to earn the minutes to help achieve this? If not, protecting the rim will be a weakness. Certainly, the future is bright and either way it will be fun watching this team develop.

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    Tom Richmond 1 year, 2 months ago

    The most favorable odds in Vegas are at the craps table not blackjack, provided you take the odds on each bet and do not take sucker bets e.g. Big 6 Big 8 etc.

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    pizzashuttle 1 year, 2 months ago

    I think we see a big jump in performance for Ellis this season. He won't have to think so much and will start the season much more confident. He also will play at a higher level to match the higher skill levels of the new players, Wiggins, Selden, Embiid, Black. Ellis will make a name for himself at the national level this season.

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