To be clear, I’m not saying Kansas is not going to get Tyran Stokes.
That caveat has to go at the top because Stokes’ recruitment has been the sort of high-scrutiny, high-stakes affair in which the mere brand of athletic apparel he wears in an Instagram story can send three fan bases into a frenzy. So a published article considering a worst-case scenario needs to acknowledge that it is not in fact predicting the apocalypse.
But preparing readers for the possibility that KU does not sign the No. 1 player in the 2026 class — how faint it might be depends which recruiting sites you read at which hours on which days of the week — seems to me a valid and worthwhile pursuit, especially with Stokes having recently suggested in a cryptic X post that he will make his intentions known soon.
For months upon months, the prevailing sentiment around this recruitment has put KU ahead by a nose in a two-horse race with Kentucky. Recent days, and a recent ESPN report, have brought some additional buzz for Oregon, the third and vastly less discussed member of Stokes’ official top three schools. Over the recruitment, at least since last October, has loomed the specter of Stokes’ name, image and likeness deal with Nike Basketball — which according to common sense would favor Kentucky and Oregon and according to Stokes in January will not be much of a factor in his final decision.
Whatever the case, the 6-foot-7 wing visited KU in January and then Kentucky after its staff changes earlier in April and still hasn’t announced his decision as his prospective teams work to build rosters in the transfer portal.
To this point, I would argue, KU’s actions in the portal have suggested a certain level of confidence in acquiring Stokes. Remember in 2024 when it wasn’t 100% clear if Hunter Dickinson was coming back for a second season in Lawrence, but the Jayhawks weren’t seriously pursuing a lot of centers in the portal? Well, in a similar vein, KU has not put itself in the conversation for a lot of wings, especially not marquee ones, since the transfer window opened on April 7, at least as far as we in the media know.
Before the commitment of Toledo transfer Leroy Blyden Jr., KU was entertaining a lot of on-ball guards like Terrence Hill Jr. of VCU (committed to Tennessee) and Terrence Brown of Utah (committed to UNC). Then there were some center visits. Robert Morris’ DeSean Goode (committed to Miami), whom the Jayhawks reportedly hosted before signing Utah’s Keanu Dawes, was more of a power forward like Dawes than a wing. Oklahoma State transfer Vyctorius Miller, a 6-foot-5, 190-pound shooting guard, is probably the closest in terms of positional fit … to the 6-foot-7, 230-pound Stokes.
Sure, KU has received a cursory mention or two on 247Sports and On3 in connection with Wake Forest transfer Juke Harris (6-foot-7, averaged 21.4 points and 6.5 rebounds last year, a target of Michigan and Tennessee). But not so with Miles Byrd (San Diego State to Providence) or Jalen Haralson (Notre Dame to Tennessee) or Nikolas Khamenia (Duke to UConn) or Stefan Vaaks (Providence to Illinois) or the rest. And evidently, the quantity of top-tier wings still on the market is dwindling.
So what might KU do if Stokes goes the Nike route for his college destination?
— It is safe to say, without knowing exact numbers, that KU has set aside a sizable chunk of its revenue-sharing and NIL budget for the No. 1 player in the class. If they don’t wind up with Stokes, the Jayhawks could dispense that money on a high-caliber consolation prize.
They could have an entirely different conversation with the still-uncommitted Harris, the ACC’s most improved player and still a rising junior, than whatever they may have done earlier in the portal window. They could — depending on the timing of this hypothetical decision — still get involved fairly early in the process with a last-minute portal entry like Tounde Yessoufou, a massively talented wing from Benin who didn’t quite play his way into the lottery with Baylor (although multiple reports already suggest UCLA is the favorite for his services). Iowa State sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic is a very different sort of player with an incredibly obvious NBA-caliber talent beyond the arc, but he may be on track for the second round of the draft — could KU promise a payday for its former adversary?
It wouldn’t have to be a one-to-one replacement, of course. The Jayhawks could go for a lower-tier wing and, say, splurge for yet-uncommitted Moustapha Thiam if they haven’t lured a true center by then.
But the player pool for 2026 is dwindling, which is why the Jayhawks could also look to 2027.
— Essentially from the moment class of 2027 wing Javon Bardwell committed to KU, rumors have swirled about a potential reclassification to 2026.
That wouldn’t make a lot of sense from a roster-management standpoint if the Jayhawks do get Stokes, especially given the decreased likelihood of retaining any given player from year to year these days. But if they find themselves with a sudden void on the wing, the 6-foot-6 five-star wing from Harlem, New York, No. 22 in his class in the 247Sports Composite and already experienced playing with Taylen Kinney in Overtime Elite, would be a great means of filling it. KU has had little issue accommodating late-stage reclassifications in recent years, like those of Johnny Furphy and Kohl Rosario.
— A Stokes-less KU could also find itself rewarded for its patience (one could also say bailed out) thanks to another seismic change in the world of college athletics. The long-discussed proposal to allow college athletes to play five seasons in a five-year span, beginning either with their high school graduation or when they turn 19, is picking up steam and support from NCAA President Charlie Baker.
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer wrote on Wednesday that “Baker acknowledges the topic of implementing such a policy shift and grandfathering in current athletes remains a topic to sort through before getting this over the line in short order.”
To say nothing of the effects this might have on future careers, it might finally validate the numerous athletes over the last two years who have — heretofore futilely — entered the transfer portal with no remaining eligibility. If the NCAA does approve the proposal very soon with a clause that retroactively applies it to existing athletes, suddenly a whole bunch of new talent could flood the transfer portal. If it doesn’t provide such a clause it might find itself, as it so often is, besieged by lawsuits — and then a whole bunch of new talent could flood the transfer portal regardless.
In short, any situation in which the NCAA implements this rule is likely to shake up the ongoing eligibility of plenty of players, many of whom might have thought they were done with college basketball.
Fischer wrote that the NCAA Division I Cabinet “discussed the idea last week and could vote on emergency legislation as soon as mid-May (it would go into effect the following month).” If such a vote ends up on the calendar, it could dramatically change how teams approach the portal in the weeks and months ahead — teams like, for example, a hypothetical Stokes-less KU.
While all schools would be affected by such a change, none of this is nearly as relevant to KU if it finds a way to earn Stokes’ commitment, something it has been trying to do since even before he announced the Jayhawks had offered him a scholarship on July 11, 2023.
