2024 NCAA Tournament Preview: Reasons why KU could or could not win the national title

By Henry Greenstein     Mar 17, 2024

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Kansas guard Kevin McCullar Jr. (15) and the Kansas bench applaud Kansas guard Dajuan Harris Jr. (3) as he leaves the game late in the second half on Tuesday, March 5, 2024 at Allen Fieldhouse. Photo by Nick Krug

It’s harder to make a case for Kansas to win the NCAA Tournament than it is in most years, given some of the uncharacteristic losses it has sustained this season, but on the other hand few teams are clear-cut favorites this season and it’s hard to definitively dismiss the possibility of a long run by a Bill Self-coached team. Here’s a quick overview of some points for and against this year’s Jayhawks.

Why it could win

– Veteran leadership: The Jayhawks’ roster is littered with players who have spent years playing in big moments, some even at multiple schools. Kevin McCullar Jr. is in his sixth season of college basketball, Dajuan Harris Jr. his fifth, Hunter Dickinson his fourth and KJ Adams his third — and Harris and Adams, of course, were on KU’s 2021-22 national championship team. They obviously won’t be intimidated by the lights and the national spotlight.

– Just look at its resume: Negatives frequently outweigh positives in the minds of fans and commentators, but while KU lost to teams like UCF and West Virginia, it also beat high-seeded Baylor and Houston. That’s not to mention its nonconference slate, in which it handled a presumptive favorite, UConn, as well as the likes of Tennessee and Kentucky. There’s plenty of reason to believe it could take on a higher-ranked team, even if the Jayhawks don’t usually have to do that, and emerge victorious.

– Depth is less of a factor: KU’s bench has been a complete nonfactor in many of its games, particularly since Self moved Johnny Furphy into the starting lineup, and particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The prospect of a tighter rotation in the NCAA Tournament, aided by longer TV timeouts and a halftime break, means that even if the bench is struggling its role can be successfully minimized and the focus placed on the Jayhawks’ reliably effective starting lineup. That goes for whether the rotation is tighter as a result of a voluntary decision by Self or due to the injuries that have troubled KU late in the season.

– Still waiting to peak: Nick Timberlake shot nearly 38% on 3-pointers in his career at Towson, and that includes high-volume fourth and fifth years in which he shot 40.6% and 41.6%. This year he has fallen vastly short of that mark and did not make more than two 3s in a game the entire conference season. Between him and Elmarko Jackson — a former McDonald’s All American who started 15 games to open the year and averaged just 5.4 points — there remains plenty of untapped potential. A breakout game or series of games could elevate KU far above its regular-season peak.

article imageAP Photo/Julio Cortez

Kansas’s Elmarko Jackson (13) shoots against Baylor’s Jalen Bridges during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, March 2, 2024, in Waco, Texas. Baylor won 82-74.

Why it could not

– Two-day turnarounds: The Jayhawks did not provide much evidence that they could win games one after another during the conference season, as they lost one game in each of their three Saturday/Monday turnarounds: at West Virginia before beating Cincinnati, at Kansas State after beating Houston and at Texas Tech (by a lot) after beating Baylor. Yes, those circumstances all involved travel, and yes, there are more opportunities for in-game rest at the tournament, but KU’s track record does not provide much optimism for Thursday/Saturday games and the like.

– The resume is misleading: Sure, KU beat UConn, but it was by a razor-thin margin, and the Huskies were without Stephon Castle; the Jayhawks also got Kentucky without its big men. The victory over the Huskies in December was also at Allen Fieldhouse, which feels particularly noteworthy given KU’s struggles away from home. The resounding win over Houston in February looks a lot worse considering the Jayhawks lost by 30 when they had to battle the Cougars again at the Fertitta Center on March 9.

– Historical precedent: KU lost more conference games than in any other year under Self. Generally those records have been pretty good predictors of how they will fare in the postseason. The last two teams that lost six games each in the conference schedule (2018-19 and 2020-21) didn’t make it past the first weekend. The last one to lose eight games, 30 years earlier, didn’t make the tournament at all. It makes it harder to talk oneself into the prospect of a deep run, especially given that KU did not win more than two games in a row at any point during the conference season.

– 3-pointers: The Jayhawks are one of the best 2-point teams in the nation, but 2 is less than 3, and at times this year they have simply gotten outscored by teams that make the 3-point shot a more prominent part of their arsenal. The home loss to BYU, even in a game that featured pretty good defense by KU, was an example of that phenomenon, albeit a rather extreme one. For much of the year the Jayhawks attempted the fewest 3s in the Big 12 and among the fewest in the nation. One hot shooting performance by an opponent could kill them.

2024 NCAA Tournament Preview

KU men to take on Samford

KU women paired with Michigan

A look at the rest of the Midwest Region

Why KU men’s basketball could or could not win the NCAA title

Forgotten regular-season moments

Venues, seeding could make for atypical postseason run

KU progresses toward milestones affected by IARP

Can Johnny Furphy come of age in the tournament?

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Written By Henry Greenstein

Henry is the sports editor at the Lawrence Journal-World and KUsports.com, and serves as the KU beat writer while managing day-to-day sports coverage. He previously worked as a sports reporter at The Bakersfield Californian and is a graduate of Washington University in St. Louis (B.A., Linguistics) and Arizona State University (M.A., Sports Journalism). Though a native of Los Angeles, he has frequently been told he does not give off "California vibes," whatever that means.