With both winning it outright and sharing the Big 12 regular season title still among the possibilities for the Kansas men’s basketball team, here’s a quick look at what all will go into the final three days of the regular season that will decide this year’s Big 12 champ.
The possibility of missing out on even a share of the title does still exist, as well, but the Jayhawks will be favored in their final two games and would have to finish the regular season at 1-3 or 0-4 in their last four games for that to happen.
The guess here is that it won’t, but, as they say, that’s why they play the games.
Here’s a look.
**• KU at TCU on Thursday night at Allen Fieldhouse**
After getting dominated in Fort Worth, Texas on Tuesday night, the Jayhawks return to Allen Fieldhouse for the rematch as a 10.5-point favorite.
That’s a heck of a swing, from losing by 10 to being favored by 10, but playing at home and some of the particulars of the loss likely factored into the oddsmakers’ thinking on this one.
For one, Ochai Agbaji is not likely to go 4-of-17 from the floor again as he did on Tuesday night. He’ll either make more and shoot a better percentage or shoot less and try to get others involved a little more. Agbaji had just one assist in Tuesday’s loss, and even though set-up man is not in his job description, he can and should be expected to do more of that on nights he’s not feeling it or shooting the ball well.
Beyond Agbaji, the Jayhawks as a whole figure to have a completely different mindset going into this one. First of all, they’re embarrassed by Tuesday’s effort and eager to make up for it. Beyond that, losing streaks are not something Kansas basketball does very well or very often.
KU lost three in a row last season before righting the ship, but, prior to that, the program had suffered a losing streak of two or three games just two times in the previous six seasons and just four times in the previous 14 seasons.
Of the three things that need to happen for KU to win a share or the Big 12 title outright, this one is by far the easiest.
KenPom.com has it as an 11-point edge for KU.
**• KU vs. Texas at 3 p.m. Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse**
Assuming KU gets the win on Thursday night — and I get it; the way things went on Tuesday that’s far from a guarantee — the Jayhawks will need to knock off Texas on Senior Night to secure a share of the title.
That’s easier said than done, of course, but consider this: KU had Texas beat in Austin until a banked-in 3-pointer changed the final minute. And the guy who banked that shot in is no longer with the Longhorns program.
UT still has plenty of other talented players who are more than capable of giving Kansas everything it could want and more. But the Jayhawks will have a couple of things going for them in this one that they did not have in Austin.
For one, adrenaline and emotion. In addition to Saturday being a must-win game in the league race, the Jayhawks will be at home and they’ll be honoring their six seniors. The Jayhawks always play well in those games and have won 38 consecutive Senior Night contests.
For two, KU knows it will have to bring it’s A-game to beat Texas. Chris Beard teams have fared well against the Jayhawks in recent years, and Beard’s Longhorns, though just 10-7 in Big 12 play, have shown they can play with anyone, anywhere, anytime.
If this one is for the Big 12 crown, the Jayhawks — and, perhaps most importantly, their home crowd — will be more than fired up for it, three games in five days be damned.
KenPom has it as a 6-point edge for the Jayhawks.
If KU wins Thursday and finds a way to win Saturday, that will put all of the pressure on Baylor, which plays Iowa State at 5 p.m. in Waco, Texas.
A Baylor win after those two KU outcomes means a shared title. An Iowa State win means the Jayhawks win the title outright.
Baylor’s players might not know the Kansas outcome before they take the court, but they’ll likely go into that one thinking they need to win to bring home some Big 12 hardware.
Speaking of that game…
**• Baylor vs. Iowa State at 5 p.m. Saturday in Waco, Texas**
Most have determined that Baylor beating Iowa State at home on Saturday is a foregone conclusion. And there’s no doubt that the Bears should be heavy favorites.
But it’s not impossible to see Iowa State winning this game, even if the Cyclones did just score 36 points in a loss to Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. Eek!
In the first meeting between ISU and Baylor, the Bears left Ames, Iowa with a 77-72 victory. Baylor led by eight at halftime but the Cyclones outscored BU in the second half.
Beyond that, ISU shot just 1-of-14 from 3-point range that day and also turned it over 17 times. Everywhere else, things were pretty equal. On the glass, in transition and in steals and assists.
Two of the eight Baylor players who played in that game likely will not play in the rematch in JTT and LJ Cryer.
Baylor will be the favorite. KenPom has the Bears with a 12-point edge. But the Cyclones should be motivated and looking for a signature NCAA Tournament resume win much the way TCU was in recent nights against Kansas and Texas Tech.
TCU has better talent than Iowa State, with its No. 42 NET ranking. And I wouldn’t bet even $20 on Iowa State winning this game.
But it’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities, especially since the two teams have not seen each other in two full months.
