Never one to count his chickens before they hatch, Kansas basketball coach Bill Self was in full hedge mode on Saturday evening, following his team’s 83-59 clubbing of No. 8 Baylor.
That win, in and of itself, did not deliver the Jayhawks a single concrete thing.
Confidence, momentum, relief and euphoria all came rolling into the home locker room after the win. But in terms of actual achievements — conference championships, postseason seeding, national championships, etc. — the Baylor win was little more than a part of the puzzle.
How it felt, however, was something entirely different.
It felt like the 10th-ranked Jayhawks (19-3 overall, 8-1 Big 12) just took a stranglehold on the Big 12 race. It felt like a flexing of the muscles that showed, clearly and emphatically, that this Kansas team is the team to beat.
It may be. But Self isn’t banking on that.
“We’re in a very favorable position right now,” he acknowledged. “But, you know, if we don’t take care of business (Monday at Texas), now you’re only up one game on two teams. So this deal is a long ways from being over, even though we probably (couldn’t) be a lot better than what we are right now.”
Saturday’s win moved KU to 8-1 in Big 12 play, two games up in the loss column on Baylor and Texas Tech at 7-3. The fact that those two programs have played one more game than Kansas is interesting both ways.
The one extra game remaining for KU means one more opportunity to take a loss. The one less game remaining for Baylor and Tech means both of those teams have a little less time to make up ground.
We’re only at the midway point. So, Self’s right. There is still plenty of time for anything still to happen.
“That thing can turn on a dime,” he said Saturday. “And this league is so good. … I don’t know if you guys remember, we were 10-0 one year and lost four of six to tie (for first during the 2004-05 season). I mean, that can happen easily.”
The schedule certainly says that’s possible. One big advantage the Jayhawks have, however is that they already have played Texas Tech twice. So the Red Raiders, who split with KU, do not have any more opportunities to have any direct say in whether KU loses. Mark Adams’ club needs help.
As things stand today, just three of KU’s remaining nine Big 12 games are against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25 — at Texas on Monday night, at Baylor on Feb. 26 and home versus Texas to close out the regular season on March 5.
Two of Texas Tech’s final eight conference games will come against ranked teams, while Baylor’s remaining schedule features five games against teams currently ranked in the final eight.
After that, it’s Texas at 6-4 and TCU at 4-4, who are currently three games back of the Jayhawks in the loss column. TCU has the most time to make up ground. But a whopping seven of the Horned Frogs’ final 10 Big 12 games come against teams that are currently ranked, including KU twice.
Texas currently has four games against ranked teams remaining — two against KU and two against Baylor.
Win all four of those, and Chris Beard’s team could find itself sitting on top.
But the fact that Baylor and Texas still have to play each other twice means that they both could have at least one more loss coming or one of them has two. Those types of things start to matter when you look at how likely it is for someone to catch Kansas.
No one outside of that group of four has much of a prayer. K-State and Oklahoma State are currently tied for sixth, but those two already have six losses apiece in conference play. It’s hard to imagine KU losing five of its last nine to allow those two to find their way into the race.
Even KU losing three of nine, which would help Texas and TCU immensely, seems like a bit of a stretch at this point, although the Longhorns could change that outlook in a hurry if they were to win on Monday night in Austin.
Regardless of who has what remaining and what the likely outcomes of those games may be, Self and the Jayhawks are moving forward with one mindset — that every game KU plays is the most important game of the season and critical for KU’s chances of winning the conference.
“We need to go steal another one or two on the road, at least, and then we need to hold serve at home,” Self said Saturday. “If we do that, we’ll have a great conference season. But it’s still too early to think anything other than we’ve got a lot of work to do.”
Critics of the emphasis KU puts on winning the Big 12 might say that none of what happens in the next four weeks matters in the grand scheme of things and that it’s what takes place in the NCAA Tournament that determines how you’re remembered.
And while that may be universally true across college basketball, history shows that performing well in Big 12 play and winning the Big 12 regular season title leads to higher seeds in the Big Dance, which, on paper, creates an easier path to a deeper run.
No one knows how hollow that concept can be better than Kansas fans. But the goal, year in and year out, still seems to be to play your way into as high a seed as possible and winning the Big 12 plays a big factor in that quest.
**Here’s a quick look at KU’s nine remaining regular season Big 12 games:**
Monday, Feb. 7 – at Texas
Saturday, Feb. 12 – vs. Oklahoma
Monday, Feb. 14 – vs. Oklahoma State
Saturday, Feb. 19 – at West Virginia
Tuesday, Feb. 22 – vs. Kansas State
Saturday, Feb. 26 – at Baylor
Tuesday, March 1 – at TCU
Thursday, March 3 – vs. TCU
Saturday, March 5 – vs. Texas
