It’s Big 12 tournament time and I know I don’t even have to ask who’s excited.
We all are. And we should be. For a couple of reasons.
In addition to finally getting the tournament back, which would be reason enough to celebrate, — remember, it was canceled because of COVID-19 before the quarterfinals could even get started last season — this year’s field is absolutely freaking loaded.
The top seven seeds are all ranked in this week’s Associated Press poll. And all seven are locks for the NCAA Tournament, which begins next week.
Pause. Rewind. Say that last sentence again!
While many conference tournaments feature teams hoping to make a run to bolster their NCAA Tournament resumes, the Big 12 tourney is all about jockeying for position.
Baylor’s a No. 1 seed. And the four or five teams behind them in the standings are likely to be somewhere on the 3, 4 or 5 line.
A couple of wins this week by any of them, including Kansas, could improve their seeding prospects significantly.
But all of that will be sorted out in due time. And none of it matters today. What matters today is that the tournament is back, it starts in just two days and it promises to be an absolute dog fight, with all seven of the conference’s top teams sitting in the position of being able to make a reasonable case that they will be the team that cuts down the nets in Kansas City, Mo., on Saturday.
With that in mind, here’s my annual breakdown of the Big 12 bracket.
Round 1
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**5:30 p.m. Wednesday, No. 8 TCU vs. No. 9 Kansas State**
The Wildcats and Horned Frogs split the season series, so this one truly is a toss-up. But I’ll go with the ‘Cats because of the way they finished the regular season. Dating back to a near-upset of Texas on Feb. 9, KSU played five quality games in their final seven down the stretch and won three of them. One of those was against TCU. **The pick: Kansas State, 71-65.**
**8:30 p.m. Wednesday, No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Iowa State**
The Cyclones played well at times and gave a couple of teams a real scare. But if a team finishes the season at 0-18, it’s hard to envision them picking up a win now. **The pick: Oklahoma, 75-59.**
Quarterfinals
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**10:30 a.m. Thursday – No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State**
I absolutely love it when teams play each other to end the regular season and then face off again in the conference tournament a few days later. That’s the situation these two are facing following OSU’s 85-80 win in Morgantown, W.Va., last weekend. Without freshman sensation Cade Cunningham, by the way. One team’s hot and should be getting its star player back. Beyond that, the Cowboys, who are still awaiting word from the NCAA about their appeal of 2021 postseason ban, could be energized by just playing. If no ruling is handed out before this game, OSU will be allowed to play throughout the rest of the postseason, as well, which means taking their spot in the NCAA Tournament field and trying to ride Cunningham to a deep run. That’s too much momentum to bet against, even though it seems like a safe assumption that Bob Huggins will have his team hungry for this rematch. **The pick: Oklahoma State, 89-85.**
**1:30 p.m. Thursday – No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 9 Kansas State**
There’s too many other good matchups in this blog to waste your time breaking down this one. After all, in two games against K-State this season, Baylor outscored the Wildcats 207-128. **The pick: Baylor, 91-68.**
**5:30 p.m. Thursday, No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 7 Oklahoma**
Another pair of teams that split the regular season series, I’m going with the Jayhawks here simply because of their improved defense and the fact that they’ll be able to carry a little chip into this game since OU won the most recent matchup between the two. Beyond that, the Sooners are in a little bit of a free fall, having dropped the final four games of the regular season entering the tournament. OU had all kinds of confidence when they beat Kansas in Norman, Okla. And Kansas did not. Things have flipped since then and the Jayhawks are without question the hotter team. **The pick: Kansas, 70-60.**
**8:30 p.m. Thursday, No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Texas Tech**
This one’s tough because the Red Raiders swept the season series with the Longhorns, but both were tight games that could’ve gone either way. Beyond that, it’s hard to envision someone beating a team like Texas for a third time, just as it could be hard for some to picture Texas, in the next round, beating Kansas for a third time this season. But I’m going with the Longhorns here, simply because there’s an easy area you can identify that easily could have flipped both of those losses into wins — free throw shooting. Texas Tech hit 42 of 54 (78%) free throws in the two games combined and UT made just 36 of 58 (62%). If Shaka Smart’s team can make a few more and send TTU to the line a little less, the game’s theirs for the taking. **The pick: Texas, 73-70.**
Semifinals
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**5:30 p.m. Friday – No. 5 Oklahoma State vs. No. 1 Baylor**
Even with Cade Cunningham and Isaac Likelele returning to the OSU lineup, the Cowboys appear to be overmatched against this Baylor team. In two games against them this seaosn, OSU lost by 15 and by 11, one coming before BU’s long pause and the other after. Cunningham did not play in the 15-point loss. But he was there a couple of weeks ago, when Baylor won by 11 in Waco. And he scored 24 points, grabbed 7 rebounds and dished 4 assists in 39 minutes. The WVU win will have taken a lot out of OSU. Topping K-State won’t have done the same for Baylor. And the top seed moves on. **The pick: Baylor, 82-73.**
**8:30 p.m. Friday – No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 3 Texas**
The Jayhawks were rocked by 25 against Texas at home and then took UT to overtime before losing the rematch. So clearly Kansas is trending in the right direction in this series. But it’s still a bad matchup for the Jayhawks. The trio of long, athletic Texas big men is incredibly disruptive for KU junior David McCormack inside. And when he gets out of sorts and plays too sped up, the Jayhawks suffer. Texas torched Kansas for 12 3-pointers in the win in Allen Fieldhouse, and then made just five but still won in Austin. The reason? Texas made free throws and killed KU on the boards in both meetings. Those are hard factors to ignore. **The pick: Texas, 77-73.**
Big 12 Championship Game
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**5 p.m. Saturday – No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 3 Texas**
They played just once this season because of COVID-19 delays, and Baylor won easily, 83-69, after winning each half by seven points. Consider this: Texas shot 55% from the floor and 46% from 3-point range in that game and still lost by double digits. A big reason for that was the 17 UT turnovers and the seven more shots that Baylor got as a result. It also did not help that the Bears topped Texas’ hot shooting in both categories, knocking in 59% from the floor and 52% from 3-point range. This Baylor team is scary good defensively and can be so good offensively, as well. The Bears’ three-week COVID pause may have led to a temporary hiccup. But this team is absolutely national championship good and the mere fact that people began to question that in recent weeks only added fuel to their fire. **The pick: Baylor, 84-71.**
*– Should the Big 12 tourney play out as written above (not likely), here’s my final guess at NCAA Tournament seeds for all seven Big 12 programs –*
• Baylor – 1 seed
• Kansas – 3 seed
• Texas – 3 seed
• Oklahoma State – 4 seed
• West Virginia – 5 seed
• Texas Tech – 5 seed
• Oklahoma – 7 seed
Let the Madness begin!
