He Will, He Won’t, He Might: Carlton Bragg

By Matt Tait     Sep 28, 2016

Kansas forward Carlton Bragg Jr. (15) puts up a three against Baylor forward John Heard (13) during the second half, Saturday, Jan. 2, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.

It’s time to move on to the fourth entry in our He Will, He Won’t, He Might series that examines the upcoming season for the Kansas men’s basketball team, and today we take a closer look at a fourth Jayhawk projected to be in this year’s starting lineup — sophomore Carlton Bragg.

As you’ve surely read or heard, [Bragg spent the offseason adding serious bulk to his frame.][1] He’s up and inch from last year’s height and has added nearly 30 pounds to his body, which is absolutely noticeable when you look at him.

Bragg says that neither addition has had a negative impact on his athleticism or the way he plays the game and both should allow him to have more success when he’s forced to hang out close to the rim and compete for buckets and rebounds with the other big bodies in college basketball.

Many college basketball analysts and prognosticators have Bragg on the short list of players at big time programs who could be in for a monster year and it’s the young man’s skill set along with the opportunity that’s now in front of him that has so many people predicting big things for Bragg.

With that said, let’s take a quick look at what we should expect from Bragg during the 2016-17 season.

Kansas forward Carlton Bragg Jr. (15) catches a pass down low against Kentucky forward Skal Labissiere (1) during the first half, Saturday, Jan. 30, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.

In case you missed the first three entries in the series, here’s where you can find them.

He Will, He Won’t, He Might: Frank Mason

He Will, He Won’t, He Might: Devonte’ Graham

He Will, He Won’t, He Might: Josh Jackson

Now, on to Carlton Bragg…

He will: Rebound and block shots better than Perry Ellis
—————————————-

So much of the talk this offseason regarding Bragg was how he was slated to slide into the role created by the departure of Perry Ellis and pick up where the three-year starter and No. 8 all-time scorer in Kansas history left off. And while that certainly is a worthy if not ambitious goal for the sophomore from Cleveland, there are at least a couple of areas where Bragg figures to fare better than Ellis ever dreamed.

The two biggest are rebounds and blocks. It’s no secret that KU coach Bill Self always wanted more from Ellis in the rebounding department. He should get it from Bragg. A season ago, Ellis finished with 222 rebounds in 1,150 minutes, good for a respectable average of 5.8 rebounds per game. Bragg, in just 338 minutes finished with 94 rebounds.

Average those out over 40 minutes and you’ll find Ellis’ number sits at 7.7 rebounds per 40 minutes while Bragg’s climbs to 11.1. I doubt Bragg will average double-digit rebounds per game this season, but he should be able to be more of a factor on the glass than Ellis was. Same goes for blocks, where Ellis averaged 0.66 blocks per 40 minutes and Bragg .83.

Those two stats alone should help this year’s group become a better defensive team than the 2015-16 squad and the suddenly bulkier Bragg figures to be a big reason for it.

He won’t: Be the scorer Perry Ellis was.
—————————————-

Having said all of that in the “He Will” section of this entry, it’s still hard to see Bragg being the same consistent scorer that Ellis was. For one, he’s nowhere near as gifted and as versatile as Ellis was by his senior season. A year ago, Ellis was a threat everywhere on the offensive half of the floor, able to catch and shoot, knock down three-pointers, drive to the rim to get his own buckets or operate in the high post to pick up points in the paint.

Bragg, though gifted and ever improving, still has a long way to go before he’s on that level. And the one trait he’s lacking that might hurt him the most in his quest to replace Ellis is assertiveness. Although Jayhawk fans constantly begged for Ellis to get tough and dunk the ball, the guy was a force of nature on the offensive end when he made up his mind that he was going to attack and no one was going to stop him.

Bragg has yet to show that type of drive and killer instinct. That’s not to say it’s not in there. But to expect it to be in Year 2 what Ellis’ was in Year 4 is a bit of a stretch.

He might: Leave KU to become a lottery pick
—————————————-

Earlier this summer I reached out to Jonathon Givony of DraftExpress.com to inquire about why Bragg was nowhere to be found on the site’s 2017 NBA Mock Draft. Givony said he didn’t think Bragg was quite there yet but that he certainly could — and likely would — be added to the first round if he got off to a hot start.

Such is the beauty of mock drafts, which can and do change often throughout the course of the year and can quickly make up for a mistake or an oversight in the next update. I’d expect that to happen with Bragg and DraftExpress.

At 6-10, 245 pounds, Bragg is just starting to come into his own size wise. Add to that solid frame the fact that he moves and shoots it well enough to be considered a legit offensive weapon in the NBA and it’s easy to see how Bragg could bolt KU after his second year for his shot at professional basketball. It’s possible, of course, that Bragg could decide to leave and not be picked in the lottery, even if he is a first-round pick and, therefore, gets guaranteed money.

The guess here, though, is that if Bragg goes — a likely scenario according to those who know him best — it’ll be because he’s projected to be one of the first 14 picks in the June draft.

[1]: http://www2.kusports.com/news/2016/sep/19/ku-sophomore-carlton-bragg-confirms-bigger-bulkier/?mens_basketball

PREV POST

Devonte? Graham talks Late Night, recruiting

NEXT POST

49477He Will, He Won’t, He Might: Carlton Bragg

Author Photo

Written By Matt Tait

A native of Colorado, Matt moved to Lawrence in 1988 and has been in town ever since. He graduated from Lawrence High in 1996 and the University of Kansas in 2000 with a degree in Journalism. After covering KU sports for the University Daily Kansan and Rivals.com, Matt joined the World Company (and later Ogden Publications) in 2001 and has held several positions with the paper and KUsports.com in the past 20+ years. He became the Journal-World Sports Editor in 2018. Throughout his career, Matt has won several local and national awards from both the Associated Press Sports Editors and the Kansas Press Association. In 2021, he was named the Kansas Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. Matt lives in Lawrence with his wife, Allison, and two daughters, Kate and Molly. When he's not covering KU sports, he likes to spend his time playing basketball and golf, listening to and writing music and traveling the world with friends and family.