Kansas coach Lance Leipold said Monday that his team needs to respond better in road games after big, emotional wins.
This one will be a doozy. Not exclusively because of any on-field qualities of Iowa State’s — though certainly the Cyclones’ 3-3-5 defense has posed problems in the past, and their strong special teams could provide an edge — but both because of the magnitude of last week’s win over Oklahoma, and mainly because KU is now faced with a night game at Jack Trice Stadium.
Since 2017, during a six-plus-year period in which Matt Campbell had led the Cyclones to five straight bowl appearances before last year’s down season, ISU is 8-3 in night games at Jack Trice. The venue has hosted at least 50,000 fans for 76 straight games and will welcome 61,500 more for a homecoming sellout Saturday night.
“I think that’s one of the great things about (it) being this time of year and playing really special football games, is you give back to our fan base who’s been very loyal to us,” Campbell said this week. “And playing meaningful games this time of year in Jack Trice makes it really, really special.”
The game is rendered all the more meaningful because, as Leipold has noted throughout the week, Iowa State is a first-place team, one of five competitors with a 4-1 record in Big 12 Conference games this year. The Cyclones’ lone loss did come in a 50-20 drubbing by OU, however.
In order for the Jayhawks to get the transitive property to apply here, they will need to figure out how to play better on the road, particularly on defense. Their lone road night game of the year so far (albeit with time-zone and altitude factors at play) saw them enter as four-touchdown favorites and scrape by with a 31-24 victory at Nevada. Their away matchups in conference play saw them start out by conceding scores on each of Texas and Oklahoma State’s first three drives, then ultimately allow 40 and 39 points, respectively.
“We don’t sit there and go, ‘Let’s see how slow we can start on the road this week,’ OK?” Leipold said. “Again, you talk about it, you look at your travel plans, you look at what you do with the hotel, how you get them going, what we’re trying to do. You do that each and every week.”
He also noted that if KU can start fast it can help minimize the impact of the crowd.
If the Jayhawks don’t manage to do so, it does not bode well for their prospects by the time the third and fourth quarters roll around. Iowa State has won 19 consecutive games when leading at halftime.
Iowa State Cyclones (5-3, 4-1 Big 12) vs. No. 21 Kansas Jayhawks (6-2, 3-2 Big 12)
• Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa, 6 p.m.
• Broadcast: ESPN
• Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network (in Lawrence, KLWN AM 1320 / K269GB FM 101.7 / KKSW FM 105.9)
• Betting line: ISU -2.5; over/under 53.5
• Series history: KU leads 51-45-6
What to watch for
1. Special teams: A KU unit that initially appeared vastly improved under Taiwo Onatolu, and with the additional hiring of Sean Snyder, has hit some bumps in the road of late, including a series of extra-point blunders against UCF and Oklahoma State and a fumbled kickoff and missed field goal against Oklahoma. Meanwhile, new Iowa State special teams coach Jordan Langs has overseen plenty of standout special teams performances, including a pair of conference special teams player of the week honors for kicker Chase Contreraz (who has gone 8-for-10 from beyond 40 yards this year), a blocked punt by Darien Porter and the nation’s third-best kick return average (29.1 yards). KU will need to return to at least its early-season standard.
2. Age and wisdom: The Cyclones have just 10 seniors on scholarship as part of an extremely young roster. Every player listed on its depth chart at quarterback and running back, including redshirt freshman starting quarterback Rocco Becht, is an underclassman. Its left tackle and center are sophomores. That forms a stark contrast with a KU team that had the greatest proportion of returning production in the nation entering the season and, generally, has played with the composure and efficiency to prove it this year.
3. Coin toss: Yes, the coin toss. Leipold said this week that prior to the Oklahoma game, KU had toyed with the idea of taking the ball first if it won the coin toss in order to get off to a strong start, but then found that OU had done a good job stopping teams on opening drives. Of course, Leipold added, “usually we lose the toss like we did and it doesn’t even matter” — as happened against Oklahoma, and KU turned the ball over on downs on its first drive. The episode at least demonstrates that the Jayhawks are willing to experiment with those minute aspects of strategy. And for what it’s worth: This year, Iowa State has won every game in which it wins the coin toss and lost every game in which it loses it.
Spotlight on…
Lawrence Arnold: The Jayhawks’ wide receivers have taken a backseat for much of the season as KU has sought (with much success) to establish the run, but Arnold was in the driver’s seat for the biggest play of the Jayhawks’ season so far, a 37-yard reception from Jason Bean on fourth-and-6 that set up KU’s game-winning touchdown against Oklahoma. He finished with three catches for 79 yards after five for 68 at Oklahoma State and is building some midseason momentum. He’ll be tested, though, by a potent Cyclones secondary.
Inside the numbers
76: The disparity in positioning between ISU’s rankings in total defense (25th) and total offense (101st). KU isn’t far behind in the opposite direction, at 98th in total defense and 29th in total offense.
21: KU’s first-ever College Football Playoff ranking, officially awarded Tuesday night, in the 10th season of the CFP’s existence. In essence, the Jayhawks had not previously been good enough at this point in a season to receive a ranking since the Bowl Championship Series folded.
13: The Cyclones have picked off 13 passes on the year, including five picks by Cooper and three by Freyler. ISU’s team mark is third in the nation and Cooper’s individual mark is second.
Prediction
KU wins 26-21. Quarterback Jason Bean is expected to start once again for the Jayhawks after Leipold, asked about Jalon Daniels assuming the starting role again, said that when Daniels is healthy he will start, but “We’re not at that point.” That means Bean will face possibly his biggest challenge of the season against the Cyclones’ robust, effective secondary, at least since finding out 30 minutes before the Texas game that he had to start.
If it comes down to a battle in the trenches, KU should have the edge, between its experience on the lines and its red-hot running-back duo. The Jayhawks’ run defense has made everyone look good over the last month, but this needs to be the week it finally clamps down. Neither Eli Sanders, Cartevious Norton nor Abu Sama III has run for 100 yards in a game this year. Leipold’s KU teams are 2-14 when allowing a 100-yard rusher and 12-5 otherwise. It’s on the Jayhawks’ defensive tackles and linebackers to ensure this game falls in that latter category and give the offense the best possible chance to grind out a win on the road.
Mike Gunnoe/Special to the Journal-World
