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Posted
by Jesse Newell
November 27, 2009 at 8:27 a.m.
Six wins might not be enough to get KU into a bowl
From the sounds of it, Kansas coach Mark Mangino believes his Kansas team is a near-lock to make a bowl game if it defeats Missouri on Saturday.
“Everything I’m hearing from my sources, which I think are pretty credible, (tells) me that 6-6, for us in the Big 12, would qualify for a bowl,” Mangino said Tuesday.
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Is it that simple for the Jayhawks, though?
According to Bob Burda, the Big 12’s assistant commissioner in charge of communications, the Jayhawks perhaps aren’t a slam dunk to qualify for a bowl even if they picked up their sixth victory.
Let’s start with the scenario that would 100 percent put the Jayhawks in a bowl game: If KU picked up its sixth win and two Big 12 teams also qualified for BCS bowls.
The Big 12 conference receives seven automatic bids to non-BCS bowls. If KU picked up its sixth victory this weekend, it would be the ninth bowl-eligible Big 12 team.
So the math is simple. If two Big 12 teams make BCS bowls, then seven Big 12 teams are left for the other seven bowls.
If only one Big 12 team makes a BCS bowl, though, then the other eight bowl-eligible teams would be left to fight it out for the final seven spots. More on that a little later.
So what would need to happen for the Big 12 to get two teams in the BCS? It could actually occur two different ways.
If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma on Saturday, then most likely the Big 12 would get both Texas and Oklahoma State into BCS bowls, as both would currently have BCS rankings in the top 12.
There’s another zanier way for the Big 12 to get two teams in the BCS: if Texas lost to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. In that scenario, Nebraska would get an automatic berth into the Fiesta Bowl as the Big 12 championship game winner, and Texas would still most likely receive an at-large BCS berth with only one loss.
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What should be scary for KU fans is another likely scenario that would only put Texas in a BCS bowl.
If UT wins against Nebraska, and Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma on Saturday (OU opened as a 9 1/2-point favorite; another way of looking at this is that Vegas believed if the two teams played four games, OSU would approximately win once), then Texas would be the only Big 12 team eligible to play in a BCS bowl, as BCS bowl teams have to finish 14th or better in the final BCS poll. Oklahoma State, which is currently 12th in the BCS, would likely drop more than two spots with a loss to OU.
So, let's say OSU has a 25-percent chance of beating OU on Saturday*. And let’s say Nebraska has a 10-percent chance of beating Texas in the Big 12 championship (though that number might be a bit optimistic).
Assuming those numbers and probabilities, the Big 12 would have two BCS teams in 13 of 40 possible outcomes. That would give KU a 32.5 percent chance of being assured a bowl game.
That’s hardly a slam dunk.
* — The line has since moved to OU being an eight-point favorite, so perhaps you can bump the numbers up a couple percentage points.
There are other scenarios, of course, but they’re much more risky. If KU did pick up its sixth win, it would be fighting for the Big 12’s final two bowl slots with Texas A&M and Iowa State (assuming OU beats OSU). The two final bowls with Big 12 ties are the Independence Bowl (Shreveport, La.) and the Texas Bowl (Houston, Texas).
It would be hard to imagine a bowl not taking Texas A&M, especially with its devoted football fans.
Iowa State also would be a compelling draw, as the Cyclones haven’t played in a bowl game since 2005. A bowl game also could provide a nice reward (and extra month of practice) for first-year coach Paul Rhoads.
Consider this as well: If the Independence Bowl took ISU, the Texas Bowl would jump at the chance to take A&M, as College Station and Houston are less than 100 miles apart*.
* — And, this is pure speculation on my part, but I guess it’s possible the two bowls could come to a gentleman’s agreement to allow the Texas Bowl to take Texas A&M.
KU’s only hope here would be for the Independence Bowl to take Texas A&M and then have the Texas Bowl decide between KU and ISU.
Even then, it might not work out for KU. Everyone saw two years ago how important an athletic director can be in this process, as Lew Perkins helped convinced the Orange Bowl to take Kansas over Missouri even though MU had defeated KU a few weeks earlier.
Would Perkins be willing to go to bat for this year’s team? Especially when the Jayhawks might fire their coach in the next few weeks?
KU’s only other hope would be to grab an at-large bid from a lower-level bowl that is affiliated with a conference that can’t fill all its bowl slots.
The chances here aren’t great, either*.
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Burda says that two bowls for sure will have an at-large spot available, and based on the rest of the season’s results, there could be the potential for two to four more spots to open up.
When picking at-large teams, though, bowls are required to take teams with seven or eight wins before they take six-win teams.
Middle Tennessee State (8-3) and Northern Illinois (7-4) will automatically take two of those at-large spots.
Here are some other six-win teams that could help their bowl chances with another win this weekend: Bowling Green, UCLA, Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe.
If those teams win this weekend, they would automatically move in front of KU in the bowl pecking order by getting to seven wins.
Here’s another problem for KU: Notre Dame (6-5) will not qualify for the BCS and will clog up another at-large bid. Even if the Fighting Irish are 6-6, you can bet they will be the first ones chosen among any six-win teams.
KU also has to worry about another group: those teams that have five wins now but could still pick up their sixth win.
According to Burda, as of today, there are 69 bowl-eligible teams and 68 bowl slots. There also is the potential for nine more teams to become bowl eligible. They are: Kansas (5-6), Toledo (5-6), Kent State (5-6), UAB (5-6), Wyoming (5-6), Hawaii (5-6), Duke (5-6), Army (5-6) and UConn (5-5 with two games left).
So even if an at-large spot was available for a six-win team, KU potentially could be competing against the six-win teams above (most notably UCLA) and also the five-win teams above that get to six wins. UConn could even get to seven wins, which would allow the Huskies to leapfrog the Jayhawks for an at-large bid.
It’s not impossible for KU to sneak in, as ESPN’s Bruce Feldman has KU as an at-large team in the Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho, in his latest bowl projections.
After breaking it all down, though, a whole lot would have to go right in the final two weeks for a six-win team like KU to have a chance at an at-large bowl. And even then, the Jayhawks would have to be chosen over a team like UCLA and probably would have to make a great pitch to get themselves in a bowl.
* — I posted this two weeks ago in the comments section of one of my blogs: “Other bowls have spots to fill because some conferences do not have enough bowl-eligible teams. If KU goes 6-6, it will 100 percent go to a bowl.” Yep, I was wrong, too. Can I get a retraction?
The point is this: KU fans wanting their team to make a bowl need to cheer their hearts out Saturday for the Jayhawks at 2:30 p.m.
But they also need to make sure to cheer for the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 11:30 a.m.
Comments
hirschtodd (anonymous) says…
If we beat Mizzou and are 6-6...And ISU is 6-6. There is no way a bowl game takes ISU over us. Sorry. I don't care HOW long its been since they went to a bowl game.
PikesPeakSmitty (anonymous) says…
Who cares... just beat Mizzery. That's better than a bowl.
KU (anonymous) says…
Jesse, it's been years and years since I studied probability theory so forgive me if I am wrong. I don't think the way you calculated KU's chances of getting a bowl (32.5%) is correct in your scenario where--assuming ku beats MU--we need UT and OSU to both win their games in order for KU to get a bowl game. (I will use your assumptions about the odds on these games.)
To determine the combined probability of two outcomes occurring: You ADD probabilities if the odds of two outcomes are mutually exclusive; you multiply probabilities if the odds of two outcomes are independent of one another.
Clearly, the odds of OSU beating OU (1/4) and the odds of UT beating NU (9/10) are independent of one another, so you multiply the chances of these outcomes to arrive at the probability of the two outcomes both occurring.
1/4 x 9/10 = 9/40 chance OSU and UT both win
Therefore, assuming KU beats MU, the chances of KU getting a bowl bid are 22.5%.
Now, if you throw into the equation the odds of KU beating MU--we will assume it's 50-50 in a rivalry game on a neutral field--you see KU's chances of getting a bowl bid are pretty slim based on this formula (KU, OSU, and UT all winning).
1/2 x 1/4 x 9/10 = 9/80, or 11.25%.
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
KU — If OSU wins, the Texas-Nebraska game is irrelevant. UT could win or lose and it wouldn't matter: Two Big 12 teams would still be in a BCS bowl. Even if NU beat UT, then NU would go to a BCS bowl and UT would be the at-large team, not OSU.
hometownhawk (anonymous) says…
Wow, KU. You messed that up beyond recognition. I don't even know where to start.
First, in Jesse's scenario the beneficial scenario for KU would be NU beating UT, not vice versa as you used. Second, you are working under the scenario where KU needs BOTH to occur, whereas it should be 'either or'.
IF the odds of OSU beating OU are 1/4*, and the odds of NU beating UT are 1/10, you add the two together to find that the odds of KU automatically qualifying for a bowl with 6 wins is 10% + 25% = 35%
*- issue with the original article: Seriously, the team ranked #12 in the BCS has a 25% chance of beating an unranked 5-loss team coming off a complete throttling by a mediocre team that was beaten by OSU the week before? And that's an "optimistic" percentage?
hometownhawk (anonymous) says…
If you put it that way Jesse, your 32.5% does make more sense mathematically, but you'll have a hard time convincing me of that 25%.
KU (anonymous) says…
hometownhawk:
Jesse's first scenario--the one I based my calculations on--is that UT and OSU go to BCS bowls, which requires UT and OSU to win their games.
You are basing your critique of my comment on the scenario where NU and UT go to BCS bowls. This scenario only requires the outcome of a single game--the NU-UT game. It doesn't have anything to do with the OSU-OU game. So your addition of the probabilities of those two games makes no sense on two levels: 1) it's not necessary to include the OSU-OU game in the probability of the scenario where UT and NU go to BCS bowls, and more importantly,
2) you don't ADD probabilities in cases where the outcomes are independent. To take this to the extreme case to prove my point: if you have a 60% chance that OSU beats OU and a 90% chance that UT beats NU and you ADD the probabilities as you have, you will get a 150% chance that KU goes to a bowl. There can never be a scenario where you have more than a 100% chance of an outcome, so this disproves your assertion that you add the probabilities.
The only time you ADD probabilities is if the outcomes are mutually exclusive. The winner of the OSU-OU and UT-NU games are independent of one another, so you multiply.
Hopefully, we'll have a REAL mathematician--I don't claim to be one--settle this dispute!
KU (anonymous) says…
Jess said: "KU — If OSU wins, the Texas-Nebraska game is irrelevant. UT could win or lose and it wouldn't matter: Two Big 12 teams would still be in a BCS bowl. Even if NU beat UT, then NU would go to a BCS bowl and UT would be the at-large team, not OSU."
There are only two ways the Big 12 can get 2 teams in BCS bowls as I see it:
1) OSU and either UT or NU: (1/4 chance of OSU winning multiplied by the chance that either NU or UT wins their game which is 1/1 or 100%): 1/4 x 1/1=25% chance of OSU plus either UT or NU being in a BCS bowl. NOTE: In this scenario, if NU wins OSU could be out in the cold and the two Big 12 teams in BCS bowls could be NU and UT.
2) UT and NU, assuming OSU loses to ou: if osu loses to OU, the chance of there being two Big 12 teams in the BCS bowls is 10% because it only depends on the chances of NU beating UT. Only if NU beats UT can there be two BCS teams in this scenario. This assumes UT doesn't drop out of contention for a BCS bowl with a 12-1 record.
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
KU — Here's how I got my number.
I'm basing it all on this assumption: There will be two Big 12 teams in the BCS if OSU beats Oklahoma OR if NU beats UT.
Based on our projection, OSU will win one out of every four games against OU. That means if we played this out 40 times, OSU would win 10 times.
In those other 30 instances (where OSU does not win), there will be three times that NU will beat UT (10 percent).
So if you add the two together (10+3), there are 13 simulations out of 40 where two Big 12 teams make it into BCS bowls.
KU (anonymous) says…
Jesse:
We agree when you say "There will be two Big 12 teams in the BCS if OSU beats Oklahoma OR if NU beats UT."
So what we are trying to do is figure out the chances of OSU winning and/or the chances of NU winning. This is the "union of two probabilities" which requires us to add the two probabilities. That should be 25% + 10% = 35%.
In my first post, I was figuring the chances of OSU winning AND UT winning (the "intersection of two probabilities"). In that case, I stand by my math that the chances are 25% x 90% = 22.5% of both OSU and UT winning.
I don't know where your 32.5% comes from, but it's not from the laws of probability.
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says…
2 things:
1) “'Everything I’m hearing from my sources, which I think are pretty credible, (tells) me that 6-6, for us in the Big 12, would qualify for a bowl,' Mangino said Tuesday."
--Of course Mangino is going to say we are a solid bid for a bowl with the sixth win, what else is he going to say? He has guys he needs to motivate. If he says, "Yeah, even if we win I don't know how good of a chance we got," what's that going to do for team morale? Coach speak. You can't really listen to it in this situation.
2) While the odds calculation based on Vegas numbers is certainly an interesting discussion -- one befitting a Newell blog -- there is something you need to keep in mind which most forget when dealing with Vegas' odds: they (Vegas oddsmakers) could give a crap what actually happens between the two teams. Lines have nothing to do with a teams actual odds on winning the game.
Now, certainly Vegas odds tend to be the most accurate measurement out there (then again, they are really about the only thing out there). However, they base these numbers on one thing: money. It has nothing to do with a teams chances of winning; rather it's about the (gambling) general public's assumption on how a team will perform in the given circumstance. Vegas wins when there are equal bets on both sides of a line. Therefore, it behooves them to understand what the public THINKS is going to happen and adjust the line accordingly. If half the people believe OU will win by 9 points or more and the other half think it's 8 or less, viola, you have a line of 8.5. Now, obviously, Vegas is not polling their betters in order to discover how they will place their money (although it's important to point out that the line adjusts as bets come in -- just as the OU line has done -- in order to even out the bets) so, clearly, performance plays a part. This line, however, is more based on the public's perception of things like performance, publicity of a teams performance (because no matter how crazy fanatical you are of a gambler, you cannot watch every game out there), and assumptions about the game itself (i.e. the idea that people believe OU plays better at home... more so, perhaps, than the average team). Plus, people often bet on their own teams. So a team with a large fan base (like OU) will probably garner more bets than those without as much of a fanatical base. It's about how people SEE the game, not the teams actual chances of winning.
[continued]
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says…
That may seem like splitting hairs -- how the majority of people view the game will often be at least close to accurate -- but it needs to be taken into account in a blog like this. This is because other factors cause people to place bets besides simply the talent and ability of a team. The history of a team like OU and how well it has played at home in the past will sway a large number of betters whether it should or not. And Vegas needs to take that into account even if it's not truly something that will affect the outcome.
It's about even bets on both sides, however they may come.
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says…
One more thing:
If you are going to calculate using Vegas odds, KU's odds of beating MU need to play a part in the above discussion (and I apologize if you did include this Jesse, I'm simply going off of KU's point of calling it a 50-50 game in his post above, and I'm too lazy to see if you added it in to your calculations).
Currently, as I type this, the money line has Kansas at +140 to MU's -160 (the spread is 3.5 right now, just FYI). This puts KU at a 3 to 2 underdog. So, you need to include KU at a 40% chance of winning into your above calculations, both of you.
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
KU — You can't simply add the two, and here's why.
Let's go back to my previous example. OSU will win one out of every four games against OU. That means if we played this out 40 times, OSU would win 10 times. No matter what happens in the NU-UT game, two BCS teams will come out of the Big 12 in those 10 instances.
If we played the UT-NU game 40 times, NU would win four times. But one of those times, OSU would have already beaten OU, meaning that two Big 12 teams already would have been in BCS bowls and that the NU win wouldn't have any affect on KU's chance of making a bowl game. So you can't add four new possibilities for KU. You have to add three, because in one of those four, KU had already clinched a bowl spot.
You're adding (10+4) to make 14/40. That's where you get your 35 percent. That's one instance too many.
I'm counting (10+3) to make 13/40. That's where I get 32.5 percent.
The math on your first post is right, though, if you wanted to find the odds of OSU and UT winning.
LA — Good point on the Vegas odds. Can you at least agree that the opening line is a good start when trying to determine how a game might end up? Usually, Vegas has a way of still being close enough to where not many people can make a living by simply gambling on games.
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
LA — Because I made my headline "Six wins might not be enough to get KU into a bowl," I decided to base the whole blog on the assumption that KU defeats MU.
patrick_raftery (anonymous) says…
jesus, mary, and joseph! please stop the nerd fest
This team does NOT deserve to go to a Bowl Game - period! Just beat the Tiggers and worry about getting better next year.
One last thing ... those posts are 100% obnoxious!
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says…
Jesse-
"Can you at least agree that the opening line is a good start when trying to determine how a game might end up?"
-- I can. I believe they are often scary accurate, so I do think it's the best way out there to calculate such things. It's just important to remember they are not created specifically to calculate odds of winning. Otherwise mathematicians would be super rich....
"Because I made my headline 'Six wins might not be enough to get KU into a bowl,' I decided to base the whole blog on the assumption that KU defeats MU."
-- Oh yeah. Good point. :-) I guess if KU loses, their odds on making a bowl drop a bit. Something like 0%, right? I guess I got a little carried away...
Rock Chalk.
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says…
patrick_raftery-
I suggest you remember the next time you click on a Newell blog that you remember it's all about nerdery.
Intelligent discussions have a place too.
Thank God.
jayhawkboogeyman (anonymous) says…
A friend of mine in the marching band is being told by the band director to plan on a trip to Idaho for the Humanitarian Bowl if we win tomorrow.
KoolKeithFreeze (anonymous) says…
You guys are all mathy and stuff.
AzHawk97 (anonymous) says…
I strongly agree with the sentiment of "just beat Mizzou." I personally do not care if KU is the 68th team in a bowl game this season. I understand the extra practices, revenue, swag for the players, and minor publicity it brings. But when 68 teams out of the 120 that play in the FBS go to bowls, it is a not an acheivment that should carry much excitement.
milwaukeeJAYHAWK (anonymous) says…
yeah, let's just beat Mizzou. i'm almost embarrassed to get a bowl date at 6-6. what a watered-down accomplishment.
it's like being the loser kid at school field day and getting a green "participation" ribbon. it's just lame.
we like to say, "yay! KU's made it to so many bowls lately compared to the old days! True, we're better. But there's also 30+ freakin' bowls to choose from.
lalawguy (anonymous) says…
I think the controversy surrounding Mangino actually might help in this regard. Bowls want to draw ratings, and am embattled coach fighting for his job always brings people to watch. I think there are several bowls out there that like having this "story" behind the game.
nettiepie (anonymous) says…
Beat mizzu to save some pride. But after that, the bowl gods will not ask us to play anywhere. The trend of the team isn't winning, the fans are fading and the coach is under attack by some whiners and the AD. Who would court that hot mess?
PikesPeakSmitty (anonymous) says…
Maybe they'll move the Humanitarian bowl to the beach in Cancun if we all get a petition. Let Reesing go out in style on the sand with all of Jayhawks there!
brownhawk (anonymous) says…
In the words of "100"
Just beat Mizzou.
phoggy_style (anonymous) says…
To Do List:
1. Beat Mizzou
2. No Bowl. Let's let this embarrassing season end, ASAP!
3. Pick new coach.
4. Remove old coach.
5. Hire above mentioned new coach.
6. Fresh start in 2010.
milwaukeeJAYHAWK (anonymous) says…
7. Scrap Gridiron Club idea
8. Take out the track and lower the field
ty4cy (anonymous) says…
I think you are underestimating the cyclones. The cyclone fan base hasn't been this energized in a long time. If you were choosing from two 6-6 teams would you want the team who was picked to finished last in the conference or the team who came in ranked 15th in the nation at the beginning of the year? Would you also choose between a first year coach who is beloved by fans and players or a coach who is under allegations of player mistreatment and whose fans want him out?