Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Red River tossup: Oklahoma, Texas favorites in early preseason poll

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Big 12 Spotlight podcast

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Texas guard A.J. Abrams, center, pulls away a rebound from Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin in last year's Big 12 tournament at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. At right is Texas center Dexter Pittman. The return of Griffin and Abrams to their respective schools has Oklahoma and Texas aiming high for next season.

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Cole Aldrich, Center, hugs Sherron Collins as Mario Chalmers (15) hoists his fists, signaling Kansas' 59-57 victory over Davidson in the Elite Eight. Collins and Aldrich will provide the most experience on the KU roster next season.

What Keegan says

Texas was loaded when Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush and Julian Wright were freshmen. The Longhorns had P.J. Tucker, LaMarcus Aldridge and Daniel Gibson. Still, KU, relying mostly on freshmen and sophomores, played UT to a tie in the Big 12 regular season, then avenged the loss and won the Big 12 title.

It's Oklahoma that's loaded now the way Texas was then. Oklahoma's the favorite with good reason, but don't count out Kansas again doing with a young roster what it did in the 2005-2006 season.

In Sherron Collins, KU has a potential first-team All-American. If the Morris twins qualify, they will help Cole Aldrich. Bill Self will have a number of perimeter players from which to choose, including do-it-all Mario Little, the top-ranked junior-college player in the nation.

- Tom Keegan

Rivals poll

Here's the Rivals.com Preseason Top 25 Poll:

1. North Carolina

2. Connecticut

3. Pittsburgh

4. Purdue

5. Notre Dame

6. Duke

7. Oklahoma

8. Louisville

9. UCLA

10. Tennessee

11. Georgetown

12. Michigan State

13. Gonzaga

14. Texas

15. Memphis

16. Kansas

17. Villanova

18. Wake Forest

19. Florida

20. Marquette

21. USC

22. Davidson

23. UNLV

24. West Virginia

25. Arizona

Others considered (listed alphabetically): Arizona State, Baylor, Kentucky, Miami, Ohio State, San Diego, Wisconsin, Xavier

OK, so the 2008-2009 men's college basketball season is 31â2 months away. But we know which key players from the Big 12 Conference left early for the NBA Draft and which key players stayed in school.

Rosters are beginning to take shape. Incoming freshmen, for the most part, have arrived on their campuses.

Heck, there's even a preseason 2008-2009 poll, courtesy of Rivals.com, to make hoops zealots across the nation more pumped for next season than Tony Parker watching "Desperate Housewives" in high definition.

The Rivals poll tabbed three Big 12 teams in the Top 25: Oklahoma (7), Texas (14) and defending national champion Kansas (16).

Here's a breakdown of each Big 12 school and its outlook for next season:

Oklahoma

Key players lost: C Longar Longar, G David Godbold.

Key newcomers: PG Willie Warren.

What it means: The losses of Longar and Godbold don't mean much, if anything, when you consider Blake Griffin's decision to stay in Norman for his sophomore season, along with Warren, a rare five-star recruit the team labeled as the most anticipated recruit in the history of Oklahoma basketball. Griffin, arguably the best returning Big 12 player, establishing his power near the basket, combined with Warren's perimeter prowess, should make the Sooners a Big 12 favorite. Expectations for coach Jeff Capel will be to eclipse last year's trip to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Texas

Key players lost: G D.J. Augustin.

Key newcomers: G J'Covan Brown, G Varez Ward.

What it means: Augustin's absence is big, but Texas still returns four starters. Damion James should average close to a double-double in points and rebounds, while A.J. Abrams could be the most clutch shooter in the conference next season. Getting back to the Elite Eight will be difficult, but the experience is there.

Kansas

Key players lost: G/F Brandon Rush, F Darrell Arthur, G Mario Chalmers, F Darnell Jackson, F/C Sasha Kaun, G Russell Robinson.

Key newcomers: F Marcus Morris, F Markieff Morris, G Travis Releford, G Tyrone Appleton, F Mario Little, F Quintrell Thomas, G Tyshawn Taylor.

What it means: When scouts talk about a recruit's "ceiling," they're predicting the future in terms of that recruit's talent level. In many ways, KU will be like a recruit next season: young and inexperienced, but its ceiling is extremely high.

A starting five of already-proven Collins and Aldrich, plus the nation's No. 1-rated junior-college transfer in Little, one of KU coach Bill Self's most anticipated recruits to Lawrence yet in Marcus Morris, plus a shooting guard (Travis Releford or Tyshawn Taylor) doesn't sound as bad as some might think after losing all five starters from the title team. Expect KU to challenge for its seventh Big 12 regular-season crown in eight years.

Baylor

Key players lost: G Aaron Bruce.

Key newcomers: SF Anthony Jones.

What it means: The Bears could be scary next year, considering the following returning players: Curtis Jerrells, Kevin Rogers, LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter. BU is a perimeter-oriented team and will continue to hold this identity. With so much experience returning, plus the four-star recruit in Jones, Baylor could challenge Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas for the Big 12 title.

Missouri

Key players lost: G Keon Lawrence (transferred to Seton Hall), G Stefhon Hannah, G Jason Horton.

Key newcomers: G Miguel Paul, F Laurence Bowers.

What it means: Rivals.com ranked Paul as the incoming Big 12 freshman with the most speed. Missouri should stay true to coach Mike Anderson's quick pace of play, but the Tigers still don't have enough playmakers to challenge for a Big 12 crown.

Nebraska

Key players lost: C Aleks Maric, G Jay-R Strowbridge (transferred to Jacksonville State).

Key newcomers: G Eshaunte Jones.

What it means: Losing Maric's 15 points and 10 rebounds per game is significant, but the Big 12 North is weak enough for Nebraska to challenge for the second spot.

Kansas State

Key players lost: F Michael Beasley, F Bill Walker, F David Hoskins, G Clent Stewart, G Blake Young.

Key newcomers: F Curtis Kelly (University of Connecticut transfer; must sit out next season).

What it means: Well, virtually everything. Sophomore point guard Jacob Pullen is the only returning player who averaged more than 3.9 points per game last season.

Colorado

Key players lost: G Richard Roby, G Marcus Hall.

Key newcomers: F Toby Veal.

What it means: Rivals.com ranked Veal as the best incoming freshman leaper in the Big 12. Whether he can mold that athletic ability into a basketball setting has yet to be seen.

Iowa State

Key players lost: F Wesley Johnson (transferred to Syracuse), C Jiri Hubalek.

Key newcomers: G Dominique Buckley, G Wes Eikmeier.

What it means: Johnson and Hubalek led the Cyclones with 12.4 points per game last year. Time to rebuild.

Oklahoma State

Key players lost: G/F Marcus Dove.

Key newcomers: None.

What it means: With the return of Byron Eaton, James Anderson and Obi Muonelo, the Cowboys should have no problem erasing last season's NIT memory with an NCAA Tournament berth. Competing for the Big 12 title, however, is far-fetched.

Texas A&M

Key players lost: C DeAndre Jordan, F/C Joseph Jones, G Dominique Kirk.

Key newcomers: PG Dashan Harris, PF David Loubeau.

What it means: Jordan didn't give the Aggies valuable minutes in the first place, but Jones and Kirk are significant losses.

Texas Tech

Key players lost: G Martin Zeno.

Key newcomers: None.

What it means: Returning senior Alan Voskuil will have to shoulder the majority of the scoring load.

Comments

delo (anonymous) says...

i hope k state enjoyed their one neato season, they're going to be terrible.

July 16, 2008 at 8:18 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

JayViking (anonymous) says...

Bring it!

July 16, 2008 at 8:23 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

yates33333 (anonymous) says...

The Big 12 will be down a lot from last season.

July 16, 2008 at 8:24 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

fan408785 (anonymous) says...

K-state certianly won't be as good next year as this past year, but their recruiting class for 09-10 is starting look like last years. Assuming K-Suck doesn't fire Martin and Hill they may actually build a competitor in 2-3years.

July 16, 2008 at 9:02 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

FlaHawk (anonymous) says...

Big XII looks pretty weak next year. There is no high profile player in the whole league! This might give KU a chance to come together late in the year. THey could easily content for 2-4 in regular season and be a real force at Big XII tourny time!

GO HAWKS!

July 16, 2008 at 9:42 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

crooner (anonymous) says...

Denis Clemente will be one of the biggest key newcomers in the Big XII, and should have been mentioned in his team's breakdown.

For which team will he be playing? Well goodness, KUSports.com, I have to make you do SOME research!

July 16, 2008 at 9:45 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

kmatlage (anonymous) says...

Definitely a down year. Only about 4 teams that can really be considered "decent" or better. Might help us ease through this reloading period though. Our bench next year could probably outplay half of these teams even...

July 16, 2008 at 10:15 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

KUFan90 (anonymous) says...

Golly...the Big 12 North will suck. KU should sweep the North. With Texas, OU, and OSU beating on each other, I think KU has a strong shot at the title again.

July 16, 2008 at 10:41 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

lalawguy (anonymous) says...

I agree with KUFan90. I don't think KU will match the caliber of last year's team, but I think this "new" team has been underestimated in the preseason polls. I predict that by tournament time, this KU team will be in the top 10.

July 16, 2008 at 11:52 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

bmkjayhawk (anonymous) says...

In late March, Jacob Pullen was quoted to say that Denis Clemente will be the fastest point guard with the ball, in all of college basketball next season. The reporter asked if that was assuming that Lawson and Augustin (to name a couple) would be going pro, and he said it didn't matter. I do hear he's pretty decent, but I really doubt he's better than Lawson, Augustin, Collins, etc.

KSU will be okay next year. I predict that they won't get last in the conference, and finish with at least a 6-10 record (which isn't good, but not as bad as this conference has seen). The year after that, with some of these younger players getting some experience and bringing in a few highly-touted recruits, if they end up going to KSU, they could be pretty decent. Maybe about like this past season.

But as I tell my KSU friends: Just because KSU might get a few players doesn't mean KU will stop being KU. I look for good things in the future in Lawrence.

July 16, 2008 at 12:14 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

tis4tim (anonymous) says...

I know pre-season polls don't mean much, but KU should start the season #1 and remain there until they prove otherwise.

I realize UNC has all their guys, save one transfer, coming back plus some 5-star recruits coming in. I also know KU lost all five starters.

But I also know an overall #1 ranking didn't keep them from getting waxed by us in the Final Four.

They should have to earn the #1 spot. Until then, KU should stay at the top.

July 16, 2008 at 12:43 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jhawkclassof02 (anonymous) says...

Wow, tis4tim, your UNC hatred must run pretty deep. I pretty much called a truce with Roy and UNC after we whooped them in the Final Four. I think we're WAY better off with Self anyway. But you're very wrong if you think we should be an automatic #1. I have no love for UNC or Roy either, but I think they've probably got a legitimate shot at going undefeated. On the other hand, despite our incoming recruits and a soft conference we've got a helluva lot of rebuilding to do. There's no way we should be the pre-season #1. I'd love to see us do better but I think we'll be looking at a 6-8 loss season and no better than a four seed come tourney time. All things considered I don't think that's half bad after losing 8 players from a NC team.

July 16, 2008 at 1:17 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jaybate (anonymous) says...

The glaring thing here is how many Big 12 teams have one or no key incoming recruits; this does not bode well for the B12's strength. It is strange how conferences ebb and flow. The B12 goes from being one of the toughest conferences in the country last season to pretty weak this year. KU, UT and OU are good enough to do damage. But the rest of the B12 is really hurtin'. And what the heck did KSU give Dalonte a big salary bump when he brought nothing in for this year. Talk about a ship headed to the bottom.

July 16, 2008 at 3:01 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Eurekahwk (anonymous) says...

A 6-8 loss season with a 4 seed and no worst than 2nd in the Big 12 is what I see in the cards. But don't dog on someone for talking trash on Carolina. It has nothing to do with RW. I've always disliked UNC. They won't go undefeated because they don't know how to play real man on man defense. They are the Texas Tech of college basketball. That used to be us before Roy left for his calling. Any team with the bigs to crash in on Hansbrough and the long physical guards to disrupt the guards will beat them.

July 16, 2008 at 3:11 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jhawkclassof02 (anonymous) says...

I am by no means predicting an undefeated UNC team, just saying that if anybody can do it this year it'll be them. But enough about UNC, yeah they'll be good blah blah blah. I'm still pumped up about next year. Things tend to be even more exciting given all of the unknowns. One thing for sure though is that our incoming players look outstanding and ready to contribute right away. Thanks to Sherron for staying and I can't wait to see Aldrich turn into the beast he's destined to become. Lots of potential for this team and I can't wait.

July 16, 2008 at 4:05 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

tis4tim (anonymous) says...

jhawk02,

Dislike for UNC...yes. Having any ill will to RW...no.

It does get tough living at the intersection of Tobacco Road and I don't give a sh*t about the ACC Avenue when you're a Jayhawk fan :)

My point (as pointless as it is) was that maybe the rankings should be more like boxing. Until you get beat or fail to defend your title in a reasonable amount of time, you stay on top.

July 16, 2008 at 4:42 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jhawkclassof02 (anonymous) says...

Yeah, I get it. Defending the title, just like boxing. But college athletics is a dynamic thing - constantly changing. At least in theory in the pros you can keep your teams more or less in tact year after year, but in college teams changes almost constantly. To defend a title as it were, you'd have to bring back the same team in more than name. Having lost 75% of the contributing players we'll be a whole new team. Yeah, still Jayhawks through and through, but a very different team indeed. I don't think it'd be fair to anybody else to be an automatic #1 just like I don't think it'd be fair for LSU to be an automatic preseason #1 in football. Seems a little condescending to the fans. Maybe a fun idea, but something I'd never want to see in reality.

July 16, 2008 at 9:23 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jayhawksnumber1 (anonymous) says...

Whoa boys, I think article was a bit short on information. I believe Nebraska has several players that would have started last year had they not been red-shirted. They now have a year of strength and conditioning as well as a year of coaching by Doc and his staff. I venture to say they should be better than last year. What other information was not in the review of the teams???? I will be doing my own research before I do any betting on the upcoming season (not that I bet...wink)

Rock Chalk Jayhawk GO KU!!!!!!!!

July 16, 2008 at 10:15 p.m. ( | suggest removal )