Record in close games bodes well for NCAA tournament for Kansas

By Staff Feb 9, 2017

Kansas guard Frank Mason III (0) roars after hitting the final shot for a 77-75 win over Duke during the Champions Classic on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2016 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Earlier this week, [Lunch Break looked at][1] the average point margins in each of Kansas basketball coach Bill Self’s 14 teams. This year’s plus-5.1 margin in Big 12 regular-season games easily is the smallest of any Self team.

The Jayhawks are 21-3 and leading the Big 12 by a game over second-place Baylor, so the smaller margin doesn’t bother Self.

“I think sometimes fans equate parity or closeness to not playing well, and that’s not been the case at all,” Self said. “I think any win is a good win regardless of where you play. I think we’ve been behind at least eight points in five our wins, and behind double figures in at least four of our wins.”

Average margins are a decent predictor of NCAA tournament success, but not as accurate as performance in close games. For comparison purposes, let’s define “close” as any game decided by six or fewer points, plus all overtime games.

In the six seasons Self’s teams have advanced to at least the Elite Eight, his teams have gone 40-10 in close games (all games, not just Big 12 counted). In the seven seasons his teams didn’t reach the Elite Eight, the record in close ones has been 37-32. This year’s squad is 7-2 so far. Good sign. Not surprisingly, Self had young guards in the only three seasons he had losing records in close ones.

Here’s how each of Self’s teams has performed in close games and how far each team advanced in the NCAA tournament.

**Year** **Rec.*** **NCAA**

**2003-04:** 4-3 Elite Eight

**2004-05**: 7-3 First round

**2005-06:** 2-4 First round

**2006-07:** 9-2 Elite Eight

**2007-08:** 7-2 National championship

**2008-09:** 2-4 Sweet 16

**2009-10:** 6-1 Second round

**2010-11:** 7-0 Elite Eight

**2011-12:** 7-2 National runner-up

**2012-13:** 7-4 Sweet 16