Charlie Creme, who projects the NCAA women’s basketball tournament field as part of ESPN’s Bracketology feature, [offered some insight on Tuesday][1] about Kansas’ chances of being selected for the first time in nine years.
The Jayhawks have won seven consecutive Big 12 games for the first time since the end of the 1996-97 season, and they will close the regular season with games against the four ranked teams in the conference beginning Wednesday at home against No. 9 Iowa State.
Creme, who has the Jayhawks as a No. 9 seed [in his latest projection][2], gave his thoughts about Kansas’ postseason possibilities in a lengthy phone conversation. It touched on the tournament selection process, why the Jayhawks are virtually a lock to make it regardless of how their regular season ends and their strength of schedule.
**On Kansas’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament:**
“I’m pretty confident about them making it for a couple reasons. One, they’re having a really good season, and they’ve done something that not everybody can say even in the league (can say): They’re taking care of the games they’re supposed to win, and there’s something to be said for that.
“But primarily, between the season they’re having and the fact that teams below them — there’s not really anybody stepping up to pass them. I mean, they’ve elevated, even a little more in my mind, than they were even a couple of weeks ago, but other teams have also not risen up. They have quite a bit of a cushion.
“That said, these next four games are obviously against elite teams and they’re huge. Honestly, I think one win in these four would ensure they’re in. Four blowout losses and then not doing what’s expected in the Big 12 tournament could spell some trouble. I don’t think they’re completely clear yet, but I have a lot of confidence.
“Honestly, even if they play well but lose all four of these games, that says something. That says it’s a team that can compete with the best in the country. I look back at the Baylor game that they really could have had and if that was already in their back pocket, that would be something else that would give them even more breathing room right now.”
**On what happens if Kansas were to lose all four of its remaining regular-season games:**
“That’s why I say they’re not quite out of the woods yet. There’s a level of concern if that happens, but as I do pretty much on a daily basis now, I break this down. Because if a team like Kansas falls out, someone’s got to move in. Well, even with five straight losses by Kansas, what teams are doing enough or have a good-enough resume to move ahead of them? So, it’s kind of that whole, well, ‘if one thing goes up, another must come down,’ and vice-versa. There’s a whole lot of ups and downs for a whole lot of other teams, and some of these teams have opportunities to move up — just like Kansas does.
“The opposite could be true. They could win two of these next four games end elevate to a seed that no one would have expected at the beginning of the year. So, it’s also a numbers game, too. … There’s some number of teams that would have to elevate past where they’ve been and that’s why I just see it mathematically unlikely that they would fall out of the field. But it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
“The other advantage that Kansas has — two advantages that Kansas has this year, or any team in its situation — is obviously there are four more at-large bids [in an expanded 68-team tournament] and the fact that there’s really not a lot of depth in the non-Power 5-plus-Big East conferences. There’s really only a couple of leagues — the Summit, the Ivy League, with South Dakota and Princeton, respectively — where if a team that wins the league in the regular season doesn’t win the tournament, those two teams have resumes that are at-large-worthy. But that doesn’t exist in other leagues, and that gives teams like Kansas more cushion because there’s not a lot of funny things that might happen in the last week.”
**On whether Kansas could appear in one of the First Four games:**
“I don’t think it would be impossible for them to be playing in that First Four game, but I think it’s more likely that they won’t be. But I think it could still be part of the equation. But, I think they’d still have to drop about, in my board, almost 10 spots — which, with a five-game losing streak, is certainly possible, but again, other teams would certainly have to do some winning, too — teams like Missouri State and Gonzaga, for instance. Those are two non-power conference teams that I have in the tournament right now. They’re good, but there are no guarantees.”
**On whether 10 conference wins is truly the benchmark that it’s said to be:**
“Coaches desperately want, in this process, some quantitative measure that they can cling to that shows they’re in, and that doesn’t exist. … As just a raw number, no, it doesn’t mean anything. Now, there might be a committee member that says when they look at that, it jumps off the page and it influences how they vote, but there’s nothing formally, or even discussed, ‘Well, so and so won 10 games in the Big 12. You’ve got to put them in.’ That kind of conversation doesn’t even come close to happening. …
“But [Kansas has] a win over Kansas State, and they beat Texas at Texas, looking back. … If you get to 10 wins, along the way, you’re going to have to beat somebody good, so from that perspective, yeah, I guess — but I always laugh about that because coaches want to be able to say that because they want to know and there is no knowing. It’s an objective process wrapped in subjective bacon, if that’s how you want to look at it, because there are set criteria and the committee members use that criteria to evaluate the teams, but an individual person might look at certain pieces of that criteria differently or with more weight than the person sitting next to them in the room.”
**On what makes a team appealing for NCAA Tournament selection:**
“The committee this year seems to be emphasizing quality wins. In the two reveals that have come out, the evidence shows — and being able to talk to and ask the committee chairs some questions — the resounding feedback I keep getting on answers is quality wins, top-25 NET and top-50 NET. Strength of schedule has popped up a little bit but hasn’t been as huge a factor as I have heard in other years. It doesn’t mean that when they sit down over the weekend, people again are going to have different perspectives, but the theme that I get back and all the questions that I’ve been able to ask is quality wins keeps coming back. ‘What is the reason X team was put in this spot?’ ‘Well, they beat so-and-so and they beat so-and-so, and other things like strength of schedule or … conference wins, things like that, those have not come up at all.”
**On the importance of strength of schedule, and how Kansas lags in that area:**
“I think that it’s less important with the NET versus the RPI. There were certain coaches who completely missed the boat on how they scheduled when the RPI was used because it didn’t take much, or honestly, what it took was just avoiding the real dumpster-fire games. Don’t play the eighth-place team in the Northeast Conference. Don’t play the last-place team in The Summit. Play the fourth-place team in The Summit. Grab a game — basically, middle to upper-echelon teams in some of these smaller leagues. Don’t play a team that’s 323 in the RPI. But, with the NET, you have the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings factoring in, and there’s slightly less emphasis on the idea of strength of schedule.
“However, I do think it’s in every coach’s best interest to get something on the schedule that’s not 11 or 12 drecks an then, when you don’t get in, complain about ‘Oh, well, we have 21 wins.’ Well, 12 of them came against teams that, if this were the Premier League, these teams would have been relegated a long time ago. That’s something that you can control to some degree as a coach.
“And I know scheduling is an art and it’s not always easy, but the idea of — let me pull up Kansas’ schedule here — don’t schedule Tennessee Tech or Omaha. Schedule North Dakota — if you can. Obviously, that’s easy for me to say. Instead of playing Rio Grande, play California Baptist, one of the best teams in the WAC. You should still be able to beat California Baptist if you can get California Baptist to come to Kansas. That would be my suggestion. Stuff like that.
“Little tweaks make that strength of schedule number a lot better and those teams are on peoples’ radar at the end of the year because they’re competing for the conference championships and it just reflects a lot better to anybody who looks at a piece of paper and is checking out the schedule.
[1]: http://www2.kusports.com/news/2022/feb/22/kansas-womens-basketball-set-hardest-four-game-str/
[2]: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/ncaa-women-bracketology-2022-women-college-basketball-projections
