Kansas’ chances of a postseason berth took a significant hit when the Jayhawks let an eminently winnable game slip away on the road at TCU.
Now KU has little wiggle room with which to operate, as it sits at 3-5 heading into a home matchup with UCF, set for Saturday at 2:45 p.m.
“We definitely want to make a bowl game,” cornerback Roman Pearson said. “We want to win every game from here on out. Again, just focusing on the little things each and every week and doing our job the best we can, not worrying about outside things is going to help us.”
It wouldn’t be a UCF game without uncertainty at the quarterback position.
When the Jayhawks and Knights first met in 2023, it wasn’t clear whether John Rhys Plumlee would return from injury to lead UCF or if Timmy McClain would remain at the helm; Plumlee ended up coming back for the KU game, only to leave it, reenter and then leave again. The Jayhawks won that one in a blowout.
Last year at the Bounce House, the Knights had three separate quarterbacks dealing with injury. One of them, Tayven Jackson, started, then got hurt after halftime. The Jayhawks ended up denying his replacement Cam Fancher multiple times deep in their own territory to preserve a 27-20 victory.
This time around, UCF opened the season with a highly touted transfer in Alonza Barnett III from James Madison, but he hurt his hamstring late in a 12-7 loss to Pittsburgh in the second game of the year. Keyone Jenkins, a lefty who previously played at Florida International, performed admirably in his absence, most notably throwing for 293 yards with three touchdowns and rushing for one more in a stunning 39-31 double-overtime victory over then-No. 2 BYU. Jenkins earned national player of the week honors and head coach Scott Frost stuck with him as what he called the “hot hand.”
The Knights then proceeded to get blown out 41-9 by a Baylor team that had just fired its coach after losing KU, and during that game Jenkins went just 14-for-21 for 82 yards passing with an interception before suffering his own ankle injury. He has been ruled out for this week, so it look like Barnett will retake the controls this Saturday in Lawrence.
UCF still has yet to win a road game during Frost’s second tenure as head coach.
As KU coach Lance Leipold said this week, much like a typical Frost team, the Knights have “excellent team speed”; defensive coordinator D.K. McDonald noted that they’re doing similar things to what they were on offense last year, but doing them with faster people. The receiver nicknamed “Speedy,” Duane Thomas Jr., is only now working his way back into action. But UCF has plenty of other weapons, led by wideout Josh Derry (37 catches, 428 yards, three touchdowns) and running back Duke Watson (92 carries, 597 yards, three touchdowns).
“They want the ball around the perimeter, want you to make sure you defend the whole field,” Leipold said.
UCF has been a mid-level defense this year, better against the run than the pass and not particularly successful at stopping opponents on third down (they convert 40.3% of the time, which ranks 13th in the Big 12). Both associate head coach Andy Kotelnicki and wide receiver Nahzae Cox noted the Knights’ ability to vary and disguise coverages.
Linebacker Tackett Curtis leads UCF with 48 tackles and also has two sacks, two interceptions and a fumble recovery. UCF has battled injury issues, and that includes at Curtis’ position, where veteran Lewis Carter has not played since Sept. 19. Leipold praised the Knights’ interior defensive line, currently headlined by Jeffson Lafontant and Horace Lockett: “You talk about defenses being built up the middle, I think again their defensive tackles can compare with anybody in the league.”
It’ll present a challenge for a KU offense that has been explosive but erratic, and one that has its own quarterback concerns after starter Isaiah Marshall missed the TCU game due to a lower leg injury and backup Cole Ballard — only recently healthy himself — turned in an uneven performance. Marshall looks likely to return, but he, Ballard and Chase Jenkins all showed up on availability reports this week, and whoever ends up leading the offense will need to produce better results despite likely missing practice time.
“The highs are high,” Kotelnicki said of the Jayhawks’ offense. “The lows are too low right now. And that’s been our problem.”
Meanwhile, KU’s defense has performed well virtually all season, but even in its finest showings has allowed key drives to opposing teams when it matters most.
“We were on the field to win it and we didn’t do it, and (it’s) our job to stop people,” McDonald said in reflecting on the TCU game. “No matter how many times we’ve stopped them during the game, we need to stop them one more time to win that game, and we didn’t do that.”
KANSAS JAYHAWKS (3-5, 1-4 BIG 12) VS. UCF KNIGHTS (4-4, 2-3 BIG 12)
• David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, 2:45 p.m.
• Broadcast: ESPN2
• Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network (in Lawrence, KLWN AM 1320 / K269GB FM 101.7 / KKSW FM 105.9)
• Betting line: KU -3.5; over/under 47.5
• Series history: KU leads 2-0
KEEP AN EYE OUT
1. Red alert: The Jayhawks struggled in the red zone against TCU, squandering multiple opportunities to increase their lead before they eventually lost it. KU missed a 26-yard field goal on its opening drive after stalling inside the 10-yard line and turned the ball over on downs at the goal line in the third quarter, before fumbling at the edge of the red zone in the fourth quarter for good measure. Leipold said that the execution issues in these areas were multifaceted: “Andy continues to analyze what we’re doing down there, what we’re calling down there. Like I’ve said, we’ve got to coach it better. I’ve got to be able to put them in better situations (with) some decisions and all those things. We take complete ownership in that, that we can continue to work to get better.” They will need to do so in a hurry, because KU’s offense has not been so productive as to let opportunities fall by the wayside.
2. Nickel back: KU will likely get Elijah Cannon back this week after he missed the TCU game as a game-time decision, but the Jayhawks appreciated Jalen Todd’s willingness to help out in a pinch at nickel — revisiting a position he had played at similarly desperate times in 2025 — because Cannon was unexpectedly unavailable. It worked well for KU to slide him inside against the Frogs in large part because of improved play from Pearson and Austin Alexander, who have taken significant steps forward over the course of the year even as injuries have depleted the secondary overall. It wouldn’t be surprising for KU to return to this look at some point even when Cannon returns.
3. Running out: KU continues to operate at a severe deficit in its backfield with four injured running backs. At this point, its primary backups to Dylan Edwards — who has already exceeded his single-season career-high carry total by 49 with four games to go — are a midseason addition in Chase Belcher and converted safety in Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman. Edwards handled a 30-carry workload well to pick up 156 yards against one strong defensive front, Baylor, and then got held to 42 on 20 carries against TCU. Kotelnicki found something with jet sweeps to wide receiver Keaton Kubecka against the Frogs; how will he attempt to revitalize the run game going forward, even with a depleted and fatigued group of backs?
SPOTLIGHT ON…
Nahzae Cox: Cox had something of a breakout game last weekend with five catches for 145 yards after he previously hadn’t caught more than three passes in a game all season. The Middle Tennessee transfer’s contested-catch abilities have been consistently impressive, and he’s been such a deep-ball threat as to average 26.9 yards per catch, which ranks second in the nation, according to ESPN. Of course, that also attests to the fact that he hasn’t caught all that many passes. Against a team that does not have a distinguished pass defense or particularly exceptional length at corner, the 6-foot-3 wideout could play a prominent role once again.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS
13: The Jayhawks’ total number of sacks this season (despite strong defensive-line play), which is second-worst in the Big 12.
2.4: Yards-per-carry average for KU running backs in the loss to TCU.
1: Number of quarterbacks in the Big 12 with College Football Playoff experience — it’s only Barnett, who led James Madison to the playoff last year.
PREDICTION
KU wins 28-21. Whoever plays quarterback for the Jayhawks will be healthier than he was last week and lead the offense to a somewhat more consistent performance. Broadly, KU will play like a team with its back against the wall and consign UCF to another loss away from home, giving itself some hope at a late-season run heading into next week’s road date at West Virginia.
