No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (25-5 overall, 13-4 Big 12) at No. 9 Texas Longhorns (22-8 overall, 11-6 Big 12)
Time: 3 p.m., Saturday, March 4, 2023
Location: Moody Center, Austin, Texas
TV: ESPN | Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network via Learfield
1. Play free and have fun
It’s been a heck of a grind in the Big 12 Conference this season, with nearly every game, involving every team, being a dog fight to the end no matter when or where the game has taken place.
On paper, this one figures to be the same, but the Jayhawks are in the rare position of not having to sweat it as much. The conference race is over. The title is theirs. And KU coach Bill Self is hoping that those facts lead to his team playing a little freer in Austin.
Kansas has shown this season that it’s at it’s absolute best when it is playing fast and loose, not overthinking and not worrying too much about what is or isn’t happening on the floor. Play hard. Think next play. And compete. Those three factors have led the Jayhawks to a 13-4 record in the conference thus far, and executing with that mindset should be easier than at any point this season because of the work they’ve done to get here.
That doesn’t mean it will be easy. Texas is a top-10 team and loaded with talent. Plus, the Longhorns are sure to be fired up for the home finale — they’re 15-1 at Moody Center so far this season, with 16 consecutive sellouts, averaging 10,943 fans per game in the brand-new building that has a capacity of 10,763.
The environment will be wild. The challenge will be stiff. But the Jayhawks should be able to enjoy all of it, knowing that the outcome may not have much of an impact on the big picture of their season, win or lose.
2. Big guns bounce back
You probably remember that Kansas topped Texas 88-80 in the first game despite getting just two points from leading scorer Jalen Wilson.
It’s probably not best to expect that to happen again, and Wilson is likely to fare much better in this matchup than the first one. In that game, Wilson made just one of seven shots, did not get to the free throw line, drew just two fouls and missed his only 3-pointer.
While his 3-point shot has been a little off in the past couple of weeks — 1-for-18 in his past five games — Wilson is a different player today than he was then. He’s been a monster attacking the rim and has been to the free throw line 33 times in six games (5.5 trips per game) since failing to get there against the Longhorns. That includes 9-of-10 free-throw shooting efforts in recent home wins over Texas Tech and Baylor.
Kansas knows it can win without Wilson scoring much, but don’t expect them to want to or have to in this one.
Another Jayhawk looking for a more immediate bounce-back effort on Saturday is Gradey Dick. The freshman guard was rock solid against UT in Lawrence — 21 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 2-of-3 from 3-point range and 5-of-6 at the free throw line — but he had his worst shooting game of the season in the Jayhawks’ senior night win over Texas Tech on Tuesday night.
Dick missed all seven shots he attempted in that one, including five from 3-point range. His only points came in the form of four clutch free throws in the final minute to seal the victory, but it was the first time all season that Dick failed to make a field goal. His previous worst came in a home win over Oklahoma when he made just one of eight shots and finished with eight points.
Dick has made at least one 3-pointer in 28 of KU’s 30 games so far this season. The only other time he was shut out was on Feb. 11 at Oklahoma, where he did not even attempt one.
Both Dick and Wilson are far too competitive to let their off games, both then and now, carry over into this one, especially the sharp-shooting freshman, who has emphasized his belief that the next shot is always going in throughout his first season as a Jayhawk.
3. Better defense wins?
Kansas’ run of seven straight wins in Big 12 play has been largely due to the team’s defensive improvement. The Jayhawks have really bought into the idea of making other teams play poorly — a staple of the Bill Self way of basketball — and that has resulted in KU climbing into the No. 9 spot in KenPom.com’s defensive efficiency rankings.
KU has held its last four opponents to 40.3% shooting overall, forcing 49 turnovers — 28 off of steals — in that stretch.
The Jayhawks were out-rebounded by two of those four opponents, however, and, given Texas’ size and depth in the front court, rebounding will be a big factor in the success of KU’s defense in this one.
In the first meeting, the Jayhawks out-rebounded the Longhorns 38-33.
While the Texas defense sits a few spots lower than Kansas at No. 25 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, they have shown that they can be flat-out nasty on that end of the floor when they’re locked in and turned up.
Despite falling behind by more than 15 points on Wednesday night at TCU, Texas forced 22 TCU turnovers and crawled back into the game with its defense. The Longhorns have forced at least 15 turnovers in 22 of their 30 games so far, and that’s an area they can improve against Kansas, as well. KU turned it over just 11 times in the win in Lawrence.
KU’s depth vs. the deep Texas roster
Self said Thursday that the Longhorns had the best lineup in the Big 12, 1 through 9, and that UT had players coming off of the bench that would start for a lot of teams.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that this matchup will be decided by the Longhorns’ sixth, seventh and eighth options, but it definitely could be.
In the first game against Kansas, it was the KU bench that got the better of Texas. While that only led to a 22-21 edge for the Jayhawks in bench points, the idea of who those points came from and what is normally expected from such players was fairly significant.
Take KU guard Joe Yesufu, for example. He went nuts against the Longhorns, making five of nine shots, all four free throws and finishing with 14 points and five rebounds in 19 minutes.
That’s better than Yesufu’s output in the next six games combined, when he tallied 14 total points and three rebounds while averaging nine minutes per game.
Yesufu and big man Ernest Udeh Jr. (6 points, 2 rebounds in 9 minutes the first time against UT) have been the first two off the bench for the Jayhawks in recent weeks. And while they have found their spots to contribute, they, like the rest of the KU bench, have been inconsistent at times.
Kansas is going to need some kind of bench presence to keep up with Texas in this one, and this looks like one of those games where it will take more than the starting five to win.
Texas’ bench, meanwhile, features Sir’Jabari Rice, who many believe is the best sixth man in the conference, if not the country, along with big man Christian Bishop, who KU recruited a couple of years ago in the transfer portal, and veteran Brock Cunningham.
For weeks, it looked like the Big 12 Conference race could come down to this one game. But Texas stumbled down the stretch, Kansas ripped off seven wins in a row, and the game that would have been one of the most hyped in recent memory had it been a winner-take-all affair suddenly does not mean quite as much.
In the race, that is.
There’s still a lot for both teams to play for, however, not the least of which is the opportunity to snag some bragging rights and a little momentum from beating the other.
There’s postseason seeding in play. Jalen Wilson and Dajuan Harris Jr. have never won in Austin. It’s the regular season finale. And the two teams could possibly meet up again in as few as six or seven days at the Big 12 tournament.
All of that, plus the general competitiveness of both rosters, figures to make this one yet another Big 12 battle, even if the league title is not on the line.
The big question for Self is how much he’ll play his starters. Will he sell out to win this game or will he look for ways and times to get that group a little more rest than he normally might? Self said this week he would not tinker with his lineup or purposely sit guys because the conference is already wrapped up. But he’s also smart and constantly in search of advantages and finding a way to take some of the burden — mental and physical — off of his front-line guys heading into the postseason could pay dividends down the road.
Either way, Self’s Jayhawks are playing as well as any team in the country and gaining confidence by the day. Harris said this week that they don’t want to screw that up and that their mission is to show the rest of the country — whenever possible — that they’re still the defending champs and ready to make a run at another title.
Winning in Austin would go a long way toward making that statement and it could play a big role in Kansas landing the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday on March 12.
Kansas leads the all-time series with Texas 37-12, including an 11-9 edge in games played in Austin. The Longhorns have won three of the last five meetings with the Jayhawks, including the last two on the Texas campus. KU’s last win in Austin came during the 2019-20 season.
KenPom lists Texas as a two-point favorite in this one, giving the Longhorns a 52% win probability rate and Kansas 48%.
No. 3 Kansas
G – Dajuan Harris Jr., 6-1, 175, Jr.
G – Kevin McCullar Jr., 6-6, 210, Sr.
G – Gradey Dick, 6-8, 205, Fr.
F – Jalen Wilson, 6-8, 225, Jr.
F – KJ Adams, 6-7, 225, Soph.
No. 9 Texas
G – Tyrese Hunter, 6-0, 175, Soph.
G – Marcus Carr, 6-2, 175, Sr.
F – Timmy Allen, 6-6, 210, Sr.
F – Dillon Mitchell, 6-8, 205, Fr.
F – Dylan Disu, 6-9, 225, Sr.