No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks (21-5 overall, 9-4 Big 12) vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears (20-6 overall, 9-4 Big 12)
Time: 3 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 18, 2023
Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
TV: ESPN | Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network via Learfield
1. Match the game’s stakes
Saturday’s showdown between two of the three teams tied for first place in the Big 12 standings is a matchup of two of the hottest teams in the conference.
After dropping three in a row to open Big 12 play, Baylor responded by winning nine of its next 10, with a five-game conference winning streak and a four-game Big 12 winning streak mixed in there.
At the same time, KU responded to its own three-game Big 12 losing streak, which Baylor capped off by winning the third game in that stretch, with four wins in the next five Big 12 outings, including three in a row heading into this weekend.
That puts the Jayhawks back in the hunt for a Big 12 title and their chances will grow significantly if they can find a way to take down Baylor.
There’s much more than that on the line in this one, though. It’s a matchup of the last two national champions. Kansas and Baylor are both battling for seeding in the postseason. ESPN’S College GameDay is in town. And Allen Fieldhouse, which has not hosted a game in two full weeks, is sure to be buzzing.
Whichever team raises its play to match that intensity and those stakes — particularly early — may have the best shot of emerging with a win and preserving at least a share of the top spot in the Big 12 race heading into the final two weeks of the season.
Asked on Thursday, if this was the biggest game of the season so far, KU junior Jalen Wilson shrugged and said simply, “I feel like I’ll say yes and then next week will be the next biggest game ever.”
“It’s really (about) what’s at stake right now,” Wilson added. “I’m not looking ahead of Saturday. It’s literally like a one-game tournament for the rest of the year. It’s really important because now it’s not time for error. If you lose a game now, you may not be able to catch up.”
Added KU coach Bill Self: “It’s a big game for a lot of reasons. One, it’s the next game. It’s not the biggest game we’re going to play this year, and it’s certainly not the biggest game Baylor’s going to play this year, but up until this point it’s probably about as big a game as we’ve played this year. I think GameDay adds to it, but I think it’s a pretty damn big game regardless if GameDay was here or not.”
2. Use length on D
Self called Baylor guards LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler and Keyonte George the best offensive trio in the country, and he wasn’t alone.
“There’s no team in America that’s got three guards like they’ve got,” Self said. “And they can all get their own and they can create for others.”
Wilson also praised Baylor’s backcourt and said all three of them have the kind of talent that can be hard for anybody to guard.
If there’s one area Wilson believes the Jayhawks can take advantage of, it’s with their size and length on the perimeter.
Cryer, Flagler and George stand 6-foot-1, 6-3 and 6-4, respectively, while the Jayhawks’ top three guards stand 6-1, 6-6 and 6-8. That’s not even counting Wilson, who also can guard on the perimeter at 6-8.
The recipe then is simple, according to Wilson.
“Make them shoot over length; their guards are really quick and can shoot,” he said. “But, you know, they aren’t the tallest guards and we happen to have tall wings, so being able to switch and closeout and make them shoot over us (is big). If they make contested shots like they will, you’ve just got to live with it. If we can make them all contested and not just wide-open shots (from us) missing assignments and stuff like that, then we’ll be in good shape.”
3. Remember the Texas game? Do that.
On Thursday, while reflecting on the first matchup with Baylor in Waco, Self said he was disappointed by the way the Jayhawks allowed Baylor to play however they wanted to play.
“From an energy standpoint, we didn’t do anything to make them uncomfortable,” he said. “Nothing.”
That certainly was not the case when the Longhorns visited Allen Fieldhouse two Mondays ago, and the way Kansas started that game — shot out of a cannon, with intensity, energy and a fighting spirit — is exactly the blueprint Self wants this team to follow in this one.
To do that, Self said the emphasis has to be on the stats that don’t show up on the stat sheet but are just as important to winning and losing as points, rebounds, assists and turnovers.
So, what do those include?
“Offensive rebound attempts, deflections, dives, charges taken, 50-50 balls,” Self said. “I thought they controlled that area.”
Self said he was proud of the way Kansas overcame a slow start and big deficit early to actually take a one-point lead at one point in the second half. But their inability to force Baylor to play a style they did not want to play wound up costing them.
“We did some good things and we had the lead for a brief moment, but we didn’t do enough to put real game pressure on them in the last four minutes,” Self said. “And that’s what you hope when you’re playing a top-10 team and you’re play-ing on the road — at least make them sweat and think. And we didn’t do enough to quite do that down there.”
KU junior Jalen Wilson vs. Baylor freshman Keyonte George
In games of this magnitude, role players always play a big part in deciding the outcome. And, every once in a while, a player or two who may not always contribute the most on the stat sheet emerges as a difference maker.
At the end of the day, though, the stars often decide these games and there aren’t many bigger stars in the Big 12 Conference than Wilson and George.
Friends and familiar with one another from their childhood, Wilson (20.3 points per game) and George (16.5) rank first and sixth in the Big 12 in scoring, with Wilson also second in the conference in rebounding.
It’s worth noting that this game will feature five of the top 10 scorers in the Big 12, with Wilson and George being joined by Flagler (7th at 15.8), Cryer (9th at 14.8) and Gradey Dick (10th at 14.7).
Baylor’s offense ranks first nationally in efficiency, per KenPom.com — better than 15 points above the national average with a 122.0 rating — and KU’s offense ranks 19th in efficiency at 116.3.
While all of the players mentioned above have shown they can take over games on the offensive end, Wilson and George lead their respective teams in field goal makes and free throw makes, proving that the ball often finds their hands in the game’s biggest moments.
Because of the way both teams defend, it’s likely that these two will match up with each other from time to time. And those showdowns, as they were in the first meeting, should be high-energy matchups that feature a little flicker of fire in each player’s eyes as they look for the right way to attack.
“We knew he was going to be one of the best freshmen in the country wherever he went to school,” Self said of George, whom Kansas recruited. “He’s one of the few guys out there that was a can’t-miss type prospect. He’s been able to show off his skillset there at Baylor in a big way and he’s terrific. I do think it helps him a lot having those two little guys playing next to him.”
Said Wilson of what makes George so effective: “He’s just so confident out there. Confident in his abilities, confident in his team and he’s just playing free – playing his game, playing free, (having) fun. With a guy like him, you can know what he’s going to do, but he has the capability to just rise up and make a tough shot sometimes. You just tip your hat to that.”
With three consecutive victories under their belt, including two on the road in Oklahoma last week, the Jayhawks have started to hit their stride again.
The veterans are filling important roles and leading this team, but the younger players have started to show signs of turning the corner — particularly Ernest Udeh Jr. and Joe Yesufu.
If those two can continue to support the starting five with good, smart minutes, this KU team will be tough to beat.
Injuries have been an issue for the Jayhawks in the past couple of weeks and there are a few worth watching extra closely in this one. Both point guard Dajuan Harris Jr., and off guard Kevin McCullar Jr. left Tuesday’s win at Oklahoma State with ankle injuries.
Both left Stillwater, believing they would be ready to go against Baylor and Self said Thursday that as long as they were able to practice on Friday they’d be out there on Saturday. Even if they are — and that’s the safe bet at this point — it will be worth watching how they move and if their mobility and lateral movement is negatively impacted by the recent ankle injuries.
Kansas leads the all-time series with Baylor 35-9 and the Jayhawks have won 16 of the last 21 meetings between the two programs. However, Baylor has won the last two matchups and three of the last five.
Nine of the last 15 meetings between the Jayhawks and Bears have been decided by eight points or fewer and six of those have featured a final point-differential of no more than five points.
The numbers are projecting a similar outcome in this one. KenPom lists KU as a four-point favorite over BU, with the Jayhawks holding a 64% win probability rating.
No. 5 Kansas
G – Dajuan Harris Jr., 6-1, 175, Jr.
G – Kevin McCullar Jr., 6-6, 210, Sr.
G – Gradey Dick, 6-8, 205, Fr.
F – Jalen Wilson, 6-8, 225, Jr.
F – KJ Adams, 6-7, 225, Soph.
No. 9 Baylor
G – Adam Flagler, 6-3, 185, Sr.
G – LJ Cryer, 6-1, 190, Jr.
G – Keyonte George, 6-4, 185, Fr.
F – Jalen Bridges, 6-7, 225, Jr.
F – Flo Thamba, 6-10, 250, Sr.
