Kansas came up short in a thrilling defeat to Arkansas during last year’s Liberty Bowl when the Razorbacks recorded a 55-53 victory in Memphis, Tennessee.
This time around, as far as opponents go, UNLV is probably the best foe Kansas could have asked for in terms of recording a potential victory. The Rebels are competing in their first bowl game since 2014, and haven’t won a bowl contest since the Las Vegas Bowl in 2000.
Oddsmakers favor KU’s chances of winning its bowl battle with UNLV, listing the Jayhawks as double-digit favorites. But anything can happen in a single game, particularly in a neutral-site postseason matchup.
As such, here are three keys to a Kansas victory in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl:
Be motivated to win
It sounds simple enough, but motivation is one of the top factors in determining the outcome of each bowl game. The reality is, the attention to the four-team College Football Playoff has had a negative impact on the 40-plus bowl games.
Players are more likely to opt out in non-marquee matchups. Many players are hitting the transfer portal in hopes of landing in a better situation. Coaches are spending time trying to bring in transfers to help bolster their rosters for the following year.
Fortunately for the Jayhawks, that doesn’t appear to be a huge concern. They haven’t lost any of their key players to the portal, while UNLV had two players with 200-plus snaps reportedly hit the portal since the Mountain West Conference title game.
While the transfer portal isn’t a huge issue, KU’s motivation could still be a concern in a game where it is clearly the superior team on paper. It’s taking place the day after Christmas, which could be tough for college students who are used to being home around the holidays.
The Jayhawks can squash any concerns about their commitment with a fast start in Phoenix. They scored just seven points in the first quarter over their final three games of the regular season, and need to begin with much more authority against the Rebels.
Offense can’t miss a step
While Kansas didn’t lose much to the portal before the bowl game, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki did leave to take the same job with Penn State. Jim Zebrowski, KU’s quarterbacks coach, was promoted to co-offensive coordinator and will call plays in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Zebrowski doesn’t expect there to be much of an adjustment.
“The only thing you are doing is scripting more,” Zebrowski told reporters during his bowl-game media availability. “The good thing about Game 13, you are who you are, in a good way. That’s exciting. We love who we are, we love where we are going. Now you can just keep on trucking.”
For KU’s sake, the team is hoping that’s true. The offense is what fueled this team to a 8-4 campaign, ranking 30th in the country with an average of 33.6 points per game. The Jayhawks ranked sixth in the country in EPA (expected points added) per play on the offensive end, according to gameonpaper.com.
UNLV’s defense, meanwhile, ranked 72nd in the country by allowing 27 points per contest. The Rebels were 107th in defensive EPA per play, which ranked 107th out of 128 teams. Boise State scored 44 points on UNLV in the MWC title game.
The Jayhawks should put up a lot of points in Phoenix, assuming their offense doesn’t miss a beat with a new play-caller.
KU’s defense must limit big plays
A big reason why UNLV is competing in its first bowl game in a decade is because of offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, who had previously been the passing game coordinator at Texas. Marion is considered the architect of the innovative “Go-Go Offense” and has brought that system with him to Las Vegas.
The offense is a bit unorthodox, or at least it used to be when it was first introduced. There are more two-back sets, leading to triple-option plays out of a spread formation. Many of the core concepts are not too different from what KU’s defense faces on a regular basis in practice, to be honest.
“They do some unique things,” Kansas defensive coordinator Brian Borland said. “They kind of challenge us with formations and just some alignment things. It will be different. We don’t play them regularly, so we don’t know much about them.”
“We got our work cut out for us trying to prevent some explosive plays by them,” Borland added. “If we can do that, I feel pretty good.”
According to collegefootballdata.com, UNLV’s offense averaged 1.37 expected points added on explosive plays this season. For comparison, KU’s offense posted 1.35 expected points added in that same metric. The Rebels ranked in the top 40 in both EPA per play, passing success rate, and total rushing EPA.
UNLV’s offense is capable of scoring in a hurry, and in a variety of different ways. It will be up to the Kansas defense to prevent that from happening to keep the Rebels from swinging the momentum in their favor.
Nick Krug
