No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (27-3 overall, 16-1 Big 12) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (18-12 overall, 9-8 Big 12)
Time: 1 p.m. Saturday, March 7, 2020 |
Location: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
TV: ESPN | Radio: IMG Jayhawk Radio Network
Log on to KUsports.com for our live game blog coverage and follow the KUsports.com staff on Twitter: @KUSports @mctait @bentonasmith @SJacksonLJW & @ByBradenShaw
1. Contest every shot
When analyzing this matchup, you can talk all about Texas Tech’s motion offense and how hard it is to defend. Or you can point to the stingy defense both teams play or even the stellar coaching that will be on display.
But when you break it down in its simplest terms, this one is really about one thing — strength versus strength.
Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage, at 53.4%, and also in 3-point shooting at 35.8%.
Kansas, meanwhile, leads the conference in effective field goal percentage defense, at 43.1%.
So while there are plenty of hidden areas of the game that can impact the result, this one could come down to the most fundamental concept in basketball — making shots and defending shots.
In the first meeting in Lawrence on Feb. 1, Texas Tech shot just 42.6% but was right on its season average from 3-point range at 42.9% (9 of 21). Those numbers included 48.1% overall shooting in the second half, when the Red Raiders made 7 of 12 3-point tries (58.3%).
These are two of the top three teams in the conference in scoring. Kansas leads the Big 12 at 74.9 points per game, and Tech ranks third at 72.3. And they’re also two of the top five teams in the Big 12 in scoring defense, with KU ranking second (to Baylor) at 60.7 points per game and Texas Tech ranking fifth at 63.4.
Both also rank in the top three in turnover margin, assist-to-turnover ratio, defensive rebounding, steals and attendance. So it’s no surprise that people expected this one to be a meaningful game when the schedules first came out.
None of those other numbers will mean much, though, if either team is able to play to its top strength — Tech by shooting the ball and Kansas by defending those shots.
So look for the Jayhawks to use positioning and scheme to guard the Red Raiders’ offense. But keep an eye out for pure effort, too. All the preparation in the world can only do so much and won’t mean a whole lot if a player closes out slow or doesn’t get a hand up to contest a shot.
2. Embrace the opportunity
Both teams have plenty to play for in Saturday’s game, but only one of them has any kind of real pressure to do so.
Texas Tech enters the game facing the following scenario: A win earns the Red Raiders the No. 3 seed in the upcoming Big 12 Tournament and cements their status as an automatic NCAA Tournament team.
For Kansas, the stakes are similarly high. A win guarantees KU the outright Big 12 title and the No. 1 seed at the conference tournament next week in Kansas City, Mo. However, the Jayhawks don’t have as much to lose if they don’t get the job done.
In fact, with second-place Baylor playing at West Virginia on Saturday, the Jayhawks could lose and still win the Big 12 outright if WVU were to knock off Baylor.
“I think it’s the best of all worlds for us,” KU coach Bill Self said when looking ahead to the regular-season finale. “It’s just go down there (and) let it fly.”
The last time these two teams met, that was more or less the approach the Red Raiders took. Trailing 19-4 early and down by 9 at halftime, Texas Tech just kept battling and made a game of it down the stretch.
In fact, TTU closed the game on a 20-12 run and had a couple of cracks to tie it in the final seconds. As it has done all season, the KU defense held up, and Kansas escaped with a 78-75 victory, which, at the time, was the Jayhawks’ sixth win in a row. That streak is still in tact, at 15, and that has given Kansas the opportunity to treat what many thought could be a game to decide the Big 12 title with more joy and less stress.
“The way I look at it, it’s not a pressure game,” Self said. “I don’t want to say it doesn’t mean anything, because it does, certainly for seeding and all those things. But as far as pressure, there shouldn’t be any pressure on us to perform. We should just go down there and let it go.”
3. Dial in from 3-point range
KU’s 3-point shooting continues to leave a little to be desired and Saturday’s game offers the Jayhawks the opportunity to get on track before postseason play arrives.
Particularly if the Jayhawks are able to embrace that no-pressure mentality that Self has preached.
While the Jayhawks are shooting a better percentage than their opponents from 3-point range — 34.8% to 30.5% — KU’s foes have made 26 more 3-pointers than the Jayhawks, giving opponents 78 more points from behind the arc than the Jayhawks.
That’s an average of just 2.6 points per game, but with the postseason often featuring close games that can come down to a single possession, that could wind up being significant in the weeks ahead.
KU has closed the gap a little in conference play, giving up just 11 more 3-pointers in 17 games, but that’s still an average of nearly 2 points per game.
Self lamented his team’s 3-point inconsistencies after KU’s recent win over TCU, which featured the Horned Frogs making 13 of 29 (44.8%) and Kansas making just 3 of 12 (25%).
“You can’t get outscored by 30 points from 3 every game and still expect to have success,” Self said. “We’ve got to do a better job.”
Part of Self’s frustration came from giving up 13 3-pointers to TCU. It marked the 16th time this season that Kansas has allowed a team to hit eight or more 3-pointers in a game against the KU defense.
But the rest of Self’s frustration came from his team not being able to match that.
“(TCU) played zone and we got off 12 threes and made three against the zone,” Self said. “So we’ve got to do a better job of stretching the defense and (with) guys being more aggressive to shoot the ball. … You’re messing with fire if you’re just relying on outscoring somebody by 40 points from inside the arc in order to win. That’s not a good formula for success.”
Texas Tech was one of those teams that reached eight 3-point makes in the first meeting. And it led to the Red Raiders scoring the most points (75) that KU has allowed in 40 minutes this season.
Only Dayton, which reached 84 points in overtime in Maui, has scored more in a single game against KU this season.
KU point guard Devon Dotson vs. KU center Udoka Azubuike
Don’t worry, the Jayhawks and Red Raiders didn’t make an illegal, midweek trade to swap personnel.
And, yes, Texas Tech is still going to have to find a way to handle both of KU’s national player of the year semifinalists and likely All-Americans. So advantage Kansas there.
But this game, in a back-channel sort of way, could wind up being an interesting battle between Azubuike and Dotson, who each have one more opportunity to make their case for Big 12 Conference Player of the Year.
Both are worthy recipients of the annual award.
Azubuike leads the Big 12 with 14 double-doubles and is averaging 14 points and 12 rebounds per game in conference play, with 53 blocks and a much-improved 50% mark at the free-throw line.
Dotson, meanwhile, leads the Big 12 in scoring at 18.2 points per game while also leading the Jayhawks in steals (62) and ranking second in assists (115).
Both have had games where they have terrorized Big 12 opponents, Azubuike at the rim and Dotson with his speed. And, with the all-conference voting due this weekend — both from the media and the Big 12 coaches — these two have one final opportunity to put up a memorable game that could sway voters one way or the other.
Not that either player cares much about the individual stuff. Throughout the season, both players repeatedly have said that their focus was on winning and doing whatever they could to help their team. That won’t change Saturday, and the Jayhawks have their sights set on getting out of Lubbock with a win to clinch the outright Big 12 title.
For what it’s worth, it was Dotson who had the better game of the two in the first meeting with Texas Tech.
His attacking style and timely buckets led to 21 points on 9 of 16 shooting and he added six rebounds, three assists and just one turnover while playing all 40 minutes.
Azubuike finished with 5 points and eight rebounds in just 16 foul-plagued minutes.
Heading into the last matchup, the Jayhawks and Red Raiders had played four consecutive games against each other without a lead change.
That wild trend held up again in KU’s home victory at Allen Fieldhouse in early February and has now reached five games in a row.
That means the team that has scored first in the last five meetings between these two teams has gone on to win the game without surrendering the lead.
That’s zero lead changes in 200 minutes of basketball.
The last time the lead changed in this series came on Feb. 11, 2017, when Josh Jackson scored a late layup in a 1-point Kansas win.
Here are a few more things worth pointing out as the teams prepare to tip it off in the regular-season finale:
• Self and the Jayhawks are preparing for a battle, not just because the Red Raiders have had another strong season but because Tech recently took Baylor to overtime in Waco, Texas.
“It’ll be a hard game,” Self said Wednesday. “You guys saw Tech’s effort against Baylor (on Monday). It was tremendous, and they’ve had time to rest and recoup.”
• From the world of the totally random, Tech on Saturday will become the third consecutive team on KU’s schedule that had to play No. 4 Baylor in the game before meeting the Jayhawks. TCU and Kansas State also played the two top-five teams in back-to-back games last week.
• Watch the turnover situation for both teams and keep in mind the fact that Chris Beard and his coaching staff said last time that they counted KU’s blocks as turnovers. Texas Tech took care of the ball well against Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, giving it away just nine times. But the Jayhawks also blocked nine shots, with Azubuike and David McCormack combining for six of those.
Kansas leads the all-time series with Texas Tech, 36-6, and has won three of the last four meetings and 19 of the last 20.
The Jayhawks are 14-5 all-time in games played in Lubbock, Texas, and 10-4 inside United Supermarkets Arena.
KenPom.com lists Kansas as a 4-point favorite in this game, with a win probability of 64%.
No. 1 Kansas
G – Devon Dotson, 6-2, 185, Soph.
G – Ochai Agbaji, 6-5, 210, Soph.
G – Isaiah Moss, 6-5, 208, Sr.
G – Marcus Garrett, 6-5, 195, Jr.
C – Udoka Azubuike, 7-0, 255, Sr.
Texas Tech
G – Davide Moretti, 6-3, 180, Jr.
G – Jahmi’us Ramsey, 6-4, 195, Fr.
G – Kyler Edwards, 6-4, 200, Soph.
F – TJ Holyfield, 6-8, 225, Sr.
G – Terrence Shannon Jr., 6-6, 210, Fr.