Game day breakdown: Sunflower Showdown part two – Kansas vs. Kansas State

By Matt Tait     Feb 24, 2019

Nick Krug
Kansas guard Devon Dotson (11) drives against Kansas State guard Barry Brown Jr. (5) during the second half, Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2019 at Bramlage Coliseum.

Kansas Jayhawks (20-7 overall, 9-5 Big 12) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (21-6 overall, 11-3 Big 12)

Time: 8 p.m. | Location: Allen Fieldhouse

TV: ESPN | Radio: IMG Jayhawk Radio Network

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Keys for Kansas

1. It’s now or never

With just four games remaining in the regular season and the Jayhawks sitting with their backs firmly against the wall in their pursuit of Big 12 title No. 15 in a row, they officially have run out of breathing room.

Another loss — especially tonight — will be catastrophic and will all but guarantee that someone other than Kansas will finish atop the Big 12 standings for the first time since the 2003-04 season, Bill Self’s first at KU.

That reality seemed loud and clear to Kansas Saturday night in Lubbock, Texas, when the defeated Jayhawks were left licking their wounds, but looking forward to the opportunity to bounce back 48 hours later.

“Oh yeah, we’ve got the urgency,” sophomore guard K.J. Lawson said Saturday night. “We might simmer it down now, but it’ll be turned up sooner than later. … We just have to play hard every possession. Don’t nobody have no sympathy for you. We’ve just got to play hard, play as a team and go out there and compete and play for the name on the front of the jersey.”

Doing it in front of their home crowd should improve the Jayhawks’ chances of bouncing back the way they’re expecting to. But Lawson made it clear that this team planned to spend Sunday and Monday focusing on what it can do to ensure that the KU fan base has something to get behind.

“They’re definitely going to bring it,” Lawson said of the Allen Fieldhouse faithful. “We all know that. We just have to bring our A game and give them what they need, bring the enthusiasm to the game and bring the fight to K-State and not let them bring it to us.”

Lawson’s younger brother, Dedric, put at least some of the responsibility for doing that on his shoulders.

“Just coming out with energy,” said Dedric Lawson when asked for the key to a win against K-State. “For the most part, we do a pretty good job of playing with energy at home. Starting with me, (we have to go) out there doing some things differently defensively to get us going on the offensive end.”

That plan, if executed, would seem to favor KU, which leads the Big 12 with a tempo rating of 69.5 compared to K-State’s tempo rating of 62, which ranks last in the conference.

For context, the national average for team tempo is 68.2.

2. 3-point defense

Regardless of where the game falls on the schedule or what’s at stake in terms of conference or postseason importance, any time you give up 16 3-pointers one game, your 3-point defense in the next game is going to be a big key and a major question.

That’s definitely the case with this one, as the Jayhawks are coming off a rough Saturday night during which they allowed Texas Tech to hit 16 of 26 3-pointers in a 29-point loss.

KU’s overall defensive numbers were eye-popping. In addition to giving up 1.49 points per possession — the worst mark in the Self era — KU allowed Tech to record an effective field goal percentage of 75 percent, which also was the worst in the Self era, easily topping the old mark of 69.8 percent recorded by Oklahoma State in 2010.

As if those two stats didn’t drive it home, this one should: KU’s defensive efficiency rating of 148.1 also was the program’s worst dating back to 2002. The next worst during that time? Last year’s 134 against Villanova in the Final Four.

Returning home to Allen Fieldhouse no doubt will help KU’s comfort level across the board, but the challenge in defending the arc could be just as stiff as the one the Jayhawks faced on Saturday night.

Kansas State ranks second in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage (37.4) and also uses the 3-point shot to score the third most points among Big 12 teams, getting more than a third of the team’s total points (35.7 percent) from behind the arc.

Add to that the fact that Kansas, which has struggled to defend 3-pointers all season against all kinds of teams and styles, now ranks ninth in the Big 12 in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 36.4 percent, and also allows the most points from behind the arc of all 10 Big 12 teams (38.5 percent of total points).

Kansas has given up double-digit 3-point makes to an opponent 10 different times this season and Kansas State was one of those opponents, connecting on 10 of 24 from downtown in the first meeting in Manhattan.

The Jayhawks have been slightly better against the 3-point shot at Allen Fieldhouse, giving up 8 triples per game to its opponents at home (112 makes in 14 games) compared to 9.5 per game on the road (123, 13).

So the combination of the venue and KU’s heightened awareness should work in the Jayhawks’ favor. But it will be interesting to see how KU handles it if Kansas State starts out hot the way the team did in Manhattan.

3. Take care of the ball

The total number of turnovers was not the problem on Saturday night against Texas Tech, as Kansas finished the game with 13 giveaways, a fairly respectable number for this team on the road.

But so many of those came in the game’s first 5-10 minutes and in a first half that saw the Red Raiders build an insurmountable 25-point halftime lead.

For the second time this season, the Jayhawks will play back-to-back games facing top-10 ranked defensive teams in terms of efficiency.

Kansas State ranks seventh nationally in defensive efficiency and the Wildcats used that to their advantage in the first meeting, forcing the young Jayhawks into 23 turnovers while giving it away just 12 times.

K-State ranks second in the Big 12 in creating turnovers (22.6 percent of opponent possessions) and also leads the conference in steal percentage (11.2), while the Jayhawks rank ninth in the Big 12 in both turnover percentage (20.5) and allowing steals (10.6).

Marquee Matchup

Kansas sophomore Marcus Garrett vs. Kansas State senior Dean Wade

Three games ago, during K-State’s home loss to Iowa State, senior forward Dean Wade limped off the floor with some kind of foot injury and the Wildcats’ chances of hanging on to win this year’s Big 12 title immediately became uncertain.

But Wade returned the very next game and played 32 minutes in a road win over West Virginia.

Few players are as important to their team as the 6-foot-9 forward from St. John, who enters tonight’s showdown second on the team in scoring (13.1 points per game), first in rebounding (6.8) and second in assists (2.8).

Wade played just 11 minutes in KSU’s easy win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, giving him even more time to rest from whatever was ailing him and putting him as close to 100 percent for round two of the Sunflower Showdown.

Marcus Garrett, meanwhile, returned to the floor after a 5-game absence with an ankle injury and played 22 minutes in KU’s loss at Texas Tech. Garrett, a natural matchup defensively for the Jayhawks against Wade’s size, strength and versatility, said his ankle held up well against the Red Raiders and his return should give KU a lift against the Wildcats.

Garrett did not play in the first meeting and Wade took advantage, scoring 12 points, grabbing 9 rebounds and dishing 6 assists in the K-State win.

Two recently injured players, both with great versatility, could play a major role in the outcome of this one. If Wade is allowed room to both score and create for others, it could be a long night for Kansas. And if Garrett can put the clamps on him, the Wildcats’ lead in the Big 12 race could be cut in half.

Jayhawk Pulse

This one is all about pride. And the stakes are incredibly simple to comprehend.

A win keeps Kansas in the hunt for yet another Big 12 title and makes the final three games of the regular season very interesting for both teams.

A loss drops KU three games behind K-State with three games to play and would mark the unofficial end of KU’s NCAA-record 14-year Big 12 title streak.

What’s more, the mental blow of that reality — losing the streak by losing at home to your in-state rival — could have ramifications that go well beyond Monday night and the Big 12 title race.

Rather than being overwhelmed or even uneasy about the hand they’ve been dealt, the Jayhawks are moving forward with the idea of attacking.

“That’s the thing about basketball,” K.J. Lawson said Saturday. “You’ve got a quick turnaround and we get to play a team that, hopefully, we can redeem ourselves (against) from our loss at K-State, and try to play our heart out Monday.”

Added Dedric, sharing Self’s immediate message to the team after Saturday’s loss at Texas Tech: “Coach just talked about next game, getting ready for K-State. We can’t get this one back, so we’re just looking forward to the next one. … I think we’ll respond well.”

Once Saturday’s game was out of hand, Self made a conscious effort to rest some of his top guys in order to help them recover and move on to Kansas State with fresh legs.

Freshman guard Ochai Agbaji was the only Jayhawk to play 30 minutes against Texas Tech. KU’s four other starters played an average of just 23.5 minutes against the Red Raiders.

“We were talking about that as early as halftime,” Self said after Saturday’s loss. “We would have had to come out in the second half, in the first 8 minutes, and cut it to 15, or something like that, to probably have a chance to put some game pressure on them, and we didn’t do that. So, therefore, the whole deal for the last 12 or 14 minutes (was) we were just trying to get our guys to the finish line so we have rested bodies for Monday.”

It remains to be seen if Self will stick with freshman David McCormack in the starting lineup as a second big man next to Dedric Lawson, or if he’ll plug Garrett back into the starting lineup in McCormack’s place and go with the four-guard look that likely matches up better with K-State’s lineup.

It’s worth noting that the Wildcats, who rocked Oklahoma State 85-46 on Saturday, also got the opportunity to rest their starters, who played an average of just 19.4 minutes in K-State’s win over the Cowboys.

The Jayhawks, of course, have dominated the all-time series with the Wildcats, leading 196-94, which includes an 89-35 record in games played in Lawrence, 48-18 all-time at Allen Fieldhouse.

Las Vegas, which had K-State as a 1-point favorite for the first game in Manhattan, lists Kansas as a 5-point favorite in the rematch.

Probable Starters

Kansas

G – Devon Dotson, 6-2, 185, Fr.

G – Quentin Grimes, 6-5, 210, Fr.

G – Ochai Agbaji, 6-5, 210, Fr.

F – Dedric Lawson, 6-9, 235, Jr.

F – David McCormack, 6-10, 265, Fr.

Kansas State

G – Kamau Stokes, 6-0, 170, Sr.

F – Barry Brown, Jr., 6-3, 195, Sr.

F – Xavier Sneed, 6-5, 220, Jr.

F – Dean Wade, 6-10, 228, Sr.

F – Makol Mawien, 6-9, 245, Jr.

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Written By Matt Tait

A native of Colorado, Matt moved to Lawrence in 1988 and has been in town ever since. He graduated from Lawrence High in 1996 and the University of Kansas in 2000 with a degree in Journalism. After covering KU sports for the University Daily Kansan and Rivals.com, Matt joined the World Company (and later Ogden Publications) in 2001 and has held several positions with the paper and KUsports.com in the past 20+ years. He became the Journal-World Sports Editor in 2018. Throughout his career, Matt has won several local and national awards from both the Associated Press Sports Editors and the Kansas Press Association. In 2021, he was named the Kansas Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. Matt lives in Lawrence with his wife, Allison, and two daughters, Kate and Molly. When he's not covering KU sports, he likes to spend his time playing basketball and golf, listening to and writing music and traveling the world with friends and family.