Was this year’s NBA draft the last to be dominated by college freshmen?

By Matt Tait     Jun 25, 2017

Nick Krug
Kansas guard Josh Jackson (11) and Kansas head coach Bill Self watch the replay of a foul called on Jackson during the second half, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2017 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Last Thursday’s NBA Draft featured a record 16 freshmen being taken in the first round, with 11 of those coming in the lottery, a reality that easily shattered the previous record of eight freshmen lottery picks.

Former Kansas star Josh Jackson was one of those, going fourth to Phoenix, during a stretch in which nine of the first 10 picks were freshmen.

The one that wasn’t? Eighteen-year-old French point guard Frank Ntilikina, who, had he played college ball in the United States last season, also would have been a freshman.

Young talent dominating draft night is nothing new in the NBA. The draft has been trending this way for years, with team executives preferring to pick potential and invest in long-range visions over taking proven but older players from the college ranks.

However, according to basketball analysts Jay Bilas and Michael Wilbon, this latest surge of one-and-done selections might have been the beginning of the end.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver recently said that the one-and-done rule — which is currently defined by the 19-year-old age enforcement — is not working for either the NBA or college basketball.

Wilbon agreed whole-heartedly with that sentiment and said during the draft broadcast that the general feeling is that change is coming.

“They know who the best players are,” he said of NBA front offices. “They’ve known since third grade. The question is, for the business of college basketball and pro basketball, what’s going to happen moving forward? It seems like it’s going to be two years. So I don’t know how much longer we’re going to be talking about freshmen dominating the NBA Draft.”

The two-year time frame Wilbon mentioned was in reference to the idea of young players having the choice to turn pro directly out of high school or having to stay a minimum of two seasons in college before jumping to the NBA.

That is the model used by college baseball — with three years instead of two — and is the fix for which people in both basketball worlds long have clamored.

One such person is Kansas coach Bill Self, who said after Thursday’s draft that he, too, believed change could be on the horizon.

“I do think it’s moving in that direction,” Self said. “It’s got a lot of support from a lot of decision-makers and, of course, has the vast majority of support with college coaches to allow kids to go out of high school if, in fact, they can be drafted in a way that will provide them a career or at least an opportunity to have a head start at a career.”

The biggest uncertainty about the whole thing — a wrinkle that could delay any immediate progress — is how the NBA’s Developmental League (now the G-League) plays into the picture.

“I think that’s what my biggest concern is — how does the D-League affect high school kids being able to come out,” Self said. “You don’t want to (create) a situation where it minimizes the value of an education because everyone feels like, ‘Well, if I don’t make it (in the NBA), I can just go to the D-League.’ So that’ll be interesting how it all plays out. But I certainly think it’s moving in a very positive direction to do something with the age 19 rule.”

Perhaps the biggest factor in reaching a resolution is making a decision about how salaries would be handled in the Developmental League. For instance, if a player can leave high school and go make $75,000-$100,000 playing in the NBA’s minor league, that alone might, and likely would, entice more young players to skip college for the opportunity to start cashing checks.

Like Self, that fact also is Bilas’ biggest concern and he believes much more than an NBA rule change needs to happen to truly fix the situation.

“You’re still gonna see young players leaving college if college doesn’t address (player) compensation,” Bilas said.

While steps have been taken to move forward in that department, as well, pay-for-play debates remain as big a part of college athletics as anything out there.

PREV POST

Beaty's former college teammate enjoys chance to see recruiting up close

NEXT POST

103222Was this year’s NBA draft the last to be dominated by college freshmen?

Author Photo

Written By Matt Tait

A native of Colorado, Matt moved to Lawrence in 1988 and has been in town ever since. He graduated from Lawrence High in 1996 and the University of Kansas in 2000 with a degree in Journalism. After covering KU sports for the University Daily Kansan and Rivals.com, Matt joined the World Company (and later Ogden Publications) in 2001 and has held several positions with the paper and KUsports.com in the past 20+ years. He became the Journal-World Sports Editor in 2018. Throughout his career, Matt has won several local and national awards from both the Associated Press Sports Editors and the Kansas Press Association. In 2021, he was named the Kansas Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. Matt lives in Lawrence with his wife, Allison, and two daughters, Kate and Molly. When he's not covering KU sports, he likes to spend his time playing basketball and golf, listening to and writing music and traveling the world with friends and family.