Team: Boston
Record: 21-13
Seed: 16
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 169
Strengths
Boston looks to be a team that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.
The Terriers aren’t turnover-prone, as they give it away on just 19.0 percent of their possessions (NCAA average is 20.2 percent). They also don’t foul much defensively, allowing just 16.7 free throws per game (Kansas allows 19.4 free throws per game).
Though BU’s schedule wasn’t the greatest, ranking 281st in KenPom’s rankings, the Terriers were able to hold their opponents to low shooting percentages. Teams shot just 32.1 percent from three-point range against BU (52nd-best nationally) and 44.1 percent from two-point range (34th nationally) this season.
The Terriers’ style of play might also help them as a heavy underdog, as they rank 295th in tempo out of 345 NCAA teams. A game with fewer possessions gives BU a better chance at an upset. The Terriers also are a good free-throw shooting team (73.1 percent).
Weaknesses
Boston has one huge, glaring, can’t-be-missed weakness: It has almost no size.
The Terriers’ tallest player eligible this season is 6-foot-8. And because of that, they struggle in many areas that you’d expect.
Though BU is a decent offensive rebounding team, it has major issues keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Opposing teams are grabbing their own misses 33.5 percent of the time, which ranks BU as 235th nationally in that statistic.
The Terriers also struggle from inside the arc offensively, as they’ve made just 43.5 percent of their twos this season (313th nationally). Exactly one-ninth of their two-pointers taken are blocked (299th nationally).
Because of their struggles inside, the Terriers are happy to fire away from three, as 39.8 percent of their shots taken are three-pointers (the 38th-highest split in the nation). BU also gets 34.6 percent of its scoring from three-pointers (27th-highest split nationally).
Players to Watch
Six-foot-5 guard/forward John Holland won America East Player of the Year this season, and deservedly so.
The senior averages 19.2 points per game while taking on a huge offensive load for the Terriers. He puts up 33.8 percent of the team’s shots while he’s on the court, which ranks 15th nationally. Though he’s not a big assist guy (1.6 per game), he hardly ever turns it over, averaging one turnover every 15.5 minutes.
Six-foot-6 guard Darryl Partin and 6-8 forward Jake O’Brien score most of their points from long range. Partin has made 62 of 171 threes (36.3 percent), while O’Brien has put in 26 of 66 treys (39.4 percent).
Six-foot-6 Marquette transfer Patrick Hazel is BU’s best defender, blocking 9.1 percent of the opposing team’s two-pointers (36th nationally) while also tying for the team-high with 5.9 rebounds per game.
Bottom Line
Though the Terriers come in with an 11-game winning streak and appear to be one of the best 16 seeds in the tournament, they shouldn’t be able to stay close with Kansas on Friday. BU lost to Kentucky by 34 earlier in the season and doesn’t appear to have many ways to slow down KU’s powerful forwards. The big key to watch will be BU on the defensive glass. If the Terriers can limit the offensive rebounds from Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris and Thomas Robinson, they might be able to keep the pace slow, hit a few threes and hang around awhile. If KU gets a lot of second-chance points, though, this one has the potential to get ugly in a hurry.
Team: UNLV
Record: 24-8
Seed: 8
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 22nd
Strengths
Though UNLV is fairly balanced, its strength lies in its defense.
The Runnin’ Rebels rank 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, which, if they played in the Big 12, would rank third behind Texas (first) and Kansas (12th).
UNLV likes to pressure defensively, forcing turnovers on 24.1 percent of its opponents’ possessions (17th nationally). The Rebels also force other teams into tough shots, as opponents have made just 43.8 percent of their two-pointers (29th nationally) and 32.4 percent of their three-pointers (66th nationally).
Offensively, UNLV’s strength is inside with its big men. The Rebels make 51.6 percent of their twos (30th nationally) while avoiding blocked shots and turnovers.
UNLV has just 6.6 percent of its two-pointers blocked (13th nationally) and has just 7.5 percent of its possessions end in opponents’ steals (16th nationally).
Weaknesses
UNLV doesn’t shoot three-pointers well, making just 33.1 percent of its shots from long range (223rd nationally). In fact, the Rebels have just two players who shoot better than 34 percent from three-point range on their roster (For comparison, KU has 10 players who shoot better than 34 percent from three, and all of them shoot at least 36 percent). UNLV also is foul-prone defensively, allowing 21.1 free throws per game.
Players to Watch
Obviously, 6-foot-8 Quintrell Thomas is a player to watch after transferring from KU two years ago. Though he’s averaging just 15.2 minutes per game and 6.6 points, he played well in the Mountain West tournament, where in two games he combined to score 14 points on 6-for-7 shooting with nine rebounds and five blocks in just 34 minutes.
Six-foot-4 senior guard Tre’Von Willis is UNLV’s go-to guy, posting a team-high 13.5 points to go with 3.6 assists per game. He’s also dangerous defensively, where he posts steals on 3.2 percent of the opposition’s possessions (152nd nationally).
Six-foot-8 forward Chace Stanback, at 13.0 points per game, is more efficient than Willis because of his low-turnover count (one turnover every 20.7 minutes). He also can hit shots from the outside, making 47 of 125 three-pointers (37.6 percent) this season. He’s been especially hot lately, as he made 8 of 13 threes (61.5 percent) during two games at the Mountain West tournament.
Though he plays just 18.8 minutes per game, also look out for 6-foot-3 guard Justin Hawkins off the bench. The sophomore comes up with steals on 4.2 percent of his defensive possessions (35th nationally) while turning it over just once every 26.1 minutes.
Bottom Line
The Runnin’ Rebels record is deceiving, as six of their eight losses have come to top-13 KenPom teams.
UNLV could create problems for KU if it’s able to speed the Jayhawks up and force them into turnovers. The Runnin’ Rebels also have four players 6-foot-8 or taller, meaning they have a lot of bodies to throw at KU’s talented frontcourt.
Obviously KU has the edge if these two teams meet, but this wouldn’t be a pushover for the Jayhawks. UNLV was only a one-point underdog at home against San Diego State in the MWC tournament on Friday (a 74-72 loss), meaning KU most likely would be only be about an eight-point favorite if these two teams met in the round of 32.
Team: Illinois
Record: 19-13
Seed: 9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 20th
Strengths
Another balanced team, Illinois ranks 33rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Offensively, the Illini shoot it well, making 50.4 percent of their twos (70th nationally), 38.7 percent of their threes (22nd nationally) and 72.9 percent of their free throws (63rd nationally).
Defensively, Illinois defends three-pointers well, as opponents have made just 30.5 percent of their threes this year (16th-best nationally). The Illini also block 12.4 percent of their opponents’ two-point attempts (35th nationally).
Illinois also is the tallest team in the nation, with its average player measuring a shade over 6-foot-7. The Illini play two 7-footers and four other forwards who are 6-8 or taller.
Weaknesses
Illinois hardly ever gets to the free-throw line, averaging just 16.1 foul shots per game (To compare, KU averages 23.4 free throws per game).
For being such a tall team, Illinois is only average on the offensive glass, grabbing just 32.4 percent of the available offensive rebounds (NCAA average is 32.3 percent).
The Illini don’t force many turnovers defensively, as opponents give it away on just 18.7 percent of their possessions (259th nationally). They also have the bad habit of fouling the opposition’s guards, as Illinois’ opponents have made 72.3 percent of their free throws.
It’s true that Illinois has faced a brutal schedule (fifth-toughest, according to KenPom), but the Illini still haven’t been winning many games as of late. After starting the season 13-3, Illinois has gone 6-10 in its last 16 games. The Illini have not won consecutive games since Jan. 2 and 6, and have also lost four of their last six.
Players to Watch
Six-foot-3 senior guard Demetri McCamey is Illinois’ best player, averaging 14.8 points and 6.1 assists per game. He contributes 36.1 percent of Illinois’ assists while he’s on the court, which ranks 22nd nationally, and also is a great three-point shooter, making 70 of 154 treys (45.5 percent).
Seven-foot-1 Mike Tisdale provides a boost on the offensive glass, grabbing 11.3 percent of the available offensive rebounds (184th nationally). The big man is a dangerous shooter from anywhere on the court, making 53.6 percent of his twos (103 of 192), 43.5 percent of his threes (20 of 46) and 80 percent of his free throws (56 of 70). He’s also a defensive presence, blocking 6.8 percent of opponents’ two-pointers when he’s in (95th nationally).
Six-foot-9 senior forward Mike Davis also provides some offensive punch, making 53.1 percent of his two-pointers. He’s also Illinois’ best defensive rebounder, coming away with the carom on 18.5 percent of the opposition’s missed shots during his minutes.
Bottom Line
Not only did KU draw KenPom’s top-rated No. 8 seed in the tournament (UNLV), it also drew KenPom’s top-rated No. 9 seed in Illinois.
The Illini have suffered from some tough luck this year, posting a 2-8 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. They also haven’t performed well against elite opponents, going 1-6 against KenPom top-10 teams. An upset over KU would be unlikely, but not out of the question. Illinois was only a 10.5-point underdog at Ohio State on Feb. 22, meaning on a semi-home court for KU in Tulsa, Okla., the Jayhawks would likely be about nine-point favorites.
All statistics courtesy of www.Kenpom.com.
