Watching Kansas University lose to Oklahoma State in Stillwater, then driving back to Lawrence to watch a DVR replay of Tennessee defeating Memphis, remaining bullish on KU’s chances of reaching the Final Four became more difficult than at any time since witnessing the missed layups against UCLA in San Jose.
Still, it’s far too early to make plans that don’t involve a trip to San Antonio for the first weekend of April, just in case.
Recent developments – a 4-3 record in the last seven, a 3-3 Big 12 road mark – notwithstanding, this team still has the makings of one that can make a run into April, provided a few disturbing trends vanish.
If Kansas can follow this three-step recovery program, which includes getting a break beyond the control of the coaching staff and players, putting scissors to nylon remains in play.
Step I
Darrell Arthur needs to play 30 minutes a game, which, of course, means he needs to find a way to play defense with his feet and not his fouling arms. Too many of Arthur’s fouls are of the silly variety, too far from the hoop. Arthur averages 23.1 minutes and 13.5 points per game. If he played 30 minutes a game and scored at the same rate, he would average 17.5 ppg. Chances are, increased playing time would result in an increased scoring rate because the goal of every possession would become getting the ball to Arthur in a position to score. It’s more difficult to develop that offensive identity when Arthur can’t stay on the floor.
One common statistic in the losses at Kansas State and Oklahoma State: Arthur played 17 minutes.
Step II
Dust off that 3-2 zone that worked so well in December 2006 against Boston College and use it when a point guard such as Oklahoma State’s Byron Eaton has his way.
Regardless of whether such a defense is actually more difficult to penetrate, point guards think it is, and since perception is nine-tenths reality, it’s worth using. Having a 2-3 zone, such as the one Nebraska used against Kansas State’s Michael Beasley last week, would come in handy as well.
It’s more difficult to generate intensity out of a zone than a man-to-man, and it’s also more difficult to rebound out of it and force turnovers, but there are advantages, as well. For one, many teams don’t like to face one. For another, in theory at least, it could help Arthur stay out of foul trouble.
Bill Self is a man-to-man coach and considered among the best in the nation at teaching it. Obviously, man-to-man will remain the defense Kansas plays the vast majority of the time, but it’s nice to have options for long stretches of games not going well.
Step III
Here’s where luck comes into play. If Sherron Collins’ legs return to full strength, Kansas immediately becomes more difficult to guard. He breaks down defenses in a way nobody else on the roster does, which leads to easier shots for everyone. He finishes better than any of KU’s other guards, and he picks up the tempo in a way nobody else can. Collins’ quickness, when healthy, suggests he should be a better on-ball defender. Meeting that expectation, if healthy, rests squarely on his shoulders.
If Steps I and III can be achieved, KU wouldn’t become less reliant on three-point accuracy. In its 24 victories, Kansas shot .385, and shot .267 in its three losses.
Step IV
Final Four, reachable if the first three steps are scaled.