It might be Championship Week, with NCAA Tournament berths getting handed out on a daily basis, but the eyes of the college basketball world turned toward Lawrence, Kansas, Monday night with Bill Self’s announcement that [Kansas University freshman center Joel Embiid will not only miss the Big 12 Tournament due to a stress fracture in his back, but also will likely miss the first weekend of the Big Dance][1].
How soon will Embiid be able to return? How does his absence impact KU’s seeding? Should the center return at all this season? That and more were discussed in the minutes and hours that followed the news.
• **In Andy Katz’s 3-point shot video** Tuesday for ESPN.com, the national writer said [Kansas will be discussed intently by the NCAA Tournament selection committee,][2] due to the mystery surrounding Embiid’s availability for the championship event.
• **ESPN.com’s Myron Medcalf** wrote Embiid shouldn’t worry about returning to the floor to finish his freshman season at Kansas.
Rest and rehab, prior to this year’s NBA draft, was [the route Medcalf suggested][3].
> Embiid’s return would certainly help
> one entity: Kansas. But it could do
> more harm to the fragile back of a
> young man who won’t last long in next
> summer’s NBA draft if he enters it.
• **Kansas isn’t the only team that had serious March Madness aspirations altered** in one way or another due to the loss of a key member of its lineup this season.
Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News offers a look at [some other prominent long-term injuries and how each program has adjusted][4].
He examines crucial setbacks suffered by players at Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Pitt and Syracuse.
Twitter roundup
—————
Obviously, the college hoops social media scene buzzed Monday night with the news of Embiid’s stress fracture. Below are some of the highlights.
So now depending on how Kansas does in Big 12, selection committee will have an interesting decision on seeding for Jayhawks.
— Andy Katz (@TheAndyKatz) March 11, 2014
Kansas isn't Final Four team without Embiid. Jayhawks in trouble without him. Need him to return but why would a likely top-3 pick risk it?
— Myron Medcalf (@MedcalfByESPN) March 11, 2014
Joel Embiid has stress fracture in back. Out Big 12 & first weekend of NCAA. Interesting conundrum for committee but more, wish Embiid well
— Dana O'Neil (@DanaONeilWriter) March 11, 2014
Joel Embiid stress fracture confirmed by California specialist, per KU release. Out indefinitely. That's depressing.
— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) March 11, 2014
Joel Embiid out for Big 12 tourney and likely first weekend of NCAA's. Kansas will need favorable matchup(s) early in NCAA tourney.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 11, 2014
Question now becomes whether the Jayhawks can hang onto a No. 2 seed — or fall to a 3 seed if they lose first game of Big 12 tourney.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 11, 2014
Some college coaches would get criticized for even allowing a potential No. 1 pick to come back and play under these circumstances.
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) March 11, 2014
Self is one of the chosen ones. Nobody will go after him. RT @ColTroutman: @DanWolken What? Explain yourself
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) March 11, 2014
Could. Have to see how the big 12 tournament goes RT @Woodrow913: how will the Embidd injury affect #kubball seed if at all??
— Jerry Palm (@jppalmCBS) March 11, 2014
In last game the selection committee saw Kansas play without Embiid, the Jayhawks lost at West Virginia. KU 2-1 w/o Embiid Ws over TCU/Tech.
— Andy Katz (@TheAndyKatz) March 11, 2014
Andrew Wiggins needs to look more like he did against West Virginia over next couple weeks w/o Embiid, but key for KU is also Naadir Tharpe.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 11, 2014
Just talked to one NBA GM: "Now it's a three-man race again — and Embiid might be No. 3 depending on how his back checks out by doctors."
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 11, 2014
Think he'll strike while iron hot. RT @Rufio8675309: @TimBrando @franfraschilla Does the back keep him at KU one more year? He's just so raw
— Fran Fraschilla (@franfraschilla) March 11, 2014
No Embiid? @Big12Conference Tournament just got crazier! Almost anything is possible.
— Fran Fraschilla (@franfraschilla) March 11, 2014
Big 12 buzz
———–
• **CBSsports.com’s Gary Parrish wrote Self deserved to be the Big 12 Coach of the Year**.
Parrish thought Rick Barnes of Texas and Lon Kruger of Oklahoma both were strong choices, but he claimed [Self shouldn’t be discredited just because his team wins the league every season — at least for the past decade][5].
> But the fact that Self makes it look
> easy doesn’t mean that it is, you
> know, easy, and I’ll stand by that
> statement forever unless you can hit
> me with a long list of coaches who
> have A) won 10 consecutive league
> titles, or B) done it three times
> without a single returning starter.
• **Basketball mathematics guru Ken Pomeroy says Kansas has a 43% chance of winning the Big 12 Tournament.**
The projections, Pomeroy admits, come with a disclaimer: the numbers don’t take into account the absence of Embiid.
Still, [Pomeroy thinks KU is the most likely tournament champion,][6] and he provides the chances each Big 12 program has to each each round of the tournament. Here are the percentages he gives each team to win the championship:
*Kansas, 43%*
*Oklahoma, 13.2%*
*Iowa State, 10.2%*
*Baylor, 8.7%*
*Texas, 7.9%*
*Oklahoma State, 7.5%*
*Kansas State, 5%*
*West Virginia, 4%*
*Texas Tech, 0.4%*
*TCU, 0.004%*
Check out Pomeroy’s explanation of each team’s chances to win at [kenpom.com][7].
[1]: http://www2.kusports.com/news/2014/mar/10/joel-embiid-ruled-out-big-12-tournament/
[2]: http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/95563/3-point-shot-kansas-ncaa-seed
[3]: http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/95518/forget-march-embiid-should-prep-for-pros
[4]: http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-03-05/college-basketball-injured-players-impact-brandon-ashley-mitch-mcgary-dawson
[5]: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24477958/bill-self-doesnt-deserve-big-12-coach-of-the-year-i-disagree
[6]: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/big_12_log51
[7]: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/big_12_log51
