No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (23-5 overall, 11-4 Big 12) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (16-12 overall, 5-10 Big 12)
Time: 3 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 25, 2023
Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
TV: ESPN
Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network via Learfield
1. Attack mode at all times
There are a dozen different reasons for Kansas to want to play in attack mode throughout this game.
From the fact that the Jayhawks fare better when they bring great energy out of the gate to all of the things that are on the line in the next three games, it’s clearly worth taking the floor with an attacking mindset.
And while the Jayhawks, who have won five in a row with some really tough victories mixed in there, seem to be in that head space at the moment, their next opponent demands that kind of approach.
“Whenever you play West Virginia, I think you have to be aggressive offensively because they’re going to play very aggressive defensively,” KU coach Bill Self said of Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers. “You can’t be timid. I think getting to the paint when you play Bob’s teams is always something that’s important to do because they’ll blow up handoffs and deny one pass away, which puts pressure on your players to go make plays. We did a decent job of that the first time.”
In that matchup, a 76-62 KU victory in Morgantown, all five KU starters scored in double figures and the Jayhawks got to the free throw line 19 times, knocking in 17 of those charity shots to pick up the easy victory.
Four of KU’s five starters each hit two or more 3-pointers and the one who didn’t — KJ Adams — led the team in trips to the free throw line, shooting 6-of-8 at the stripe in the win.
The Jayhawks shot 11-of-24 from 3-point range, with Gradey Dick knocking in four of the six 3-pointers he attempted and Dajuan Harris Jr. hitting three of the six he took. Kansas also held WVU to 4-of-20 shooting from the 3-point line and an 18-of-28 clip at the free throw line.
More important than any of those shooting numbers, at least in Self’s eyes, was the fact that the Jayhawks cleaned up those misses on the glass, out-rebounding WVU 43-35 overall.
“I don’t think it was unbelievable,” Self said of the team’s defense that night. “I think they missed some good looks. The thing about it is we rebounded the ball decent against a team that’s a good rebounding team.”
West Virginia, which is ranked 20th overall by KenPom.com, is the Big 12’s second-best offensive rebounding team in terms of percentage, getting back 34% of its misses, which ranks 26th nationally.
Whether it’s attacking off the dribble, attacking WVU’s actions on defense or attacking the glass to control the rebounding battle, flipping the switch to attack mode and leaving it there will be key for Kansas in this one.
2. Be ready for new-look Mountaineers
It’s been seven weeks since the Jayhawks played West Virginia and both teams have changed and grown a great deal since then.
One of the biggest areas where that figures to be the most obvious in this one is in the starting lineup, where the Mountaineers will have 6-3 guard Kedrian Johnson back on the floor this time.
Johnson missed the first matchup with Kansas and his absence was felt throughout the WVU lineup on both ends of the floor.
“We were fortunate that Johnson didn’t play the first game,” Self said. “He certainly makes a big difference from an athletic standpoint and from a defensive standpoint. He can hawk the ball about as well as anybody in our league.”
Johnson is much more than a defensive menace, though. While his steal percentage of 3.4%, which measures a player’s steals per defensive possessions, ranks 112th nationally and is the fifth best in the Big 12 Conference, his ability to get to the free throw line is also problematic for WVU opponents.
West Virginia ranks 14th nationally in free throw attempts per field goal attempts, which KenPom explains is the measure of a player’s ability to get to the free throw line relative to how often he attempts to score.
Johnson draws 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes, which ranks 81st nationally and fourth in the Big 12 conference. Two of the three players ahead of him in that department are on his team, with Joe Toussaint at 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes and Jimmy Bell Jr. at 5.7.
Those numbers and Johnson’s return underscore the importance of keeping the Mountaineers off of the free throw line, even though their 72.9% shooting there is just barely above the national average of 71.5%.
Fouling is about more than free points for the opponent. It can lead to lineup issues for the team doing the fouling and Kansas has proven that it needs its starters out there as much as possible to maintain control of games.
“I thought we caught some breaks in the first game that maybe people didn’t realize were quite as big of breaks as they were at the time,” Self said while discussing the absence of Johnson in the first meeting.
3. Defense wins
Don’t look now, but the Jayhawks are all the way up to No. 9 in KenPom’s latest defensive efficiency rankings.
That includes ranking in the top 85 nationally in six different categories and in the top 32 in effective field goal percentage defense (46.8% compared to the national average of 50.5%), 2-point percentage defense (46% compared to 50.1%) and steal percentage, where the Jayhawks have flat-out taken the ball away from their opponents on 12.5% of possessions, which ranks 20th nationally.
The Jayhawks have not been great at encouraging unforced errors, ranking just 303rd nationally in non-steal turnover percentage, but when you’re taking the ball away at that kind of clip, you can worry less about whether your opponents are just giving the ball to you through sloppy play.
The Mountaineers figure to come into Allen Fieldhouse looking to let it fly, both because that’s the style of ball they play and also because they’re still trying to build their NCAA Tournament resumé.
WVU ranks 17th nationally in offensive efficiency and they’re actually scoring more per game than Kansas, 76.6 points per game compared to 76.5.
“They’re very capable,” Self said of Huggins’ squad. “(They’re 26th) in the NET, but they still probably need to get a couple more wins to solidify some stuff, and this would be a huge game for them, as it’s going to be a huge game for us.”
Kansas has really bought in to Self’s philosophy of making other teams play poorly in recent weeks.
Junior forward Jalen Wilson said recently that the timing of that buy-in has been consistent with what he’s seen from past KU teams, including last season’s national champions. But the consistency with which it’s currently happening has KU playing at a pretty high level and clicking in all phases of the game right now.
During their current five-game winning streak, KU has held Texas, Oklahoma, Oklhaoma State, Baylor and TCU to average points-per-possession mark of 0.96.
Given KU’s offensive versatility and balance, that kind of effort should win just about every night and if the Jayhawks can close out the regular season in similar fashion, starting with the matchup with a tough West Virginia offense in this one, it likely would go a long way toward the defending champs taking some serious confidence into the postseason.
KU’s perimeter defense vs. West Virginia gunner Erik Stevenson
West Virginia guard Erik Stevenson had a rough shooting day against the Jayhawks in the first matchup, going 4-of-19 overall, 4-of-14 from 2-point range and 0-for-5 from behind the 3-point line.
Stevenson has failed to make a 3-pointer just five times in WVU’s 28 games so far this season. And the 4-of-19 shooting clip is among his worst two or three performances of the season.
The Kansas defense certainly had something to do with that, but given the way Stevenson has proven to be fearless throughout his college career, you can bet he’s ready to come back gunning and won’t be shy about getting up shots in his only trip to Allen Fieldhouse.
The 6-foot-4 guard has made at least one 3-pointer in every Big 12 game but two since that night against KU. That inclues a 6-of-11 clip in a win over Oklahoma, a 6-of-14 effort in a loss to Texas Tech and making five of six in a recent win over Oklahoma State, not to mention his 7-of-10 showing against Auburn in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.
“I’d like to think we defended him decently,” Self said of KU’s effort in the first matchup. “But I’ve seen him take the same shots he missed against us and (make a bunch of them). So, he’s talented enough that he can get his regardless of how well you play defense.”
KU’s switching style and locked-in approach of late figures to make it tough for Stevenson to find much space to shoot. So, don’t be surprised for a second if he elects to extend his range well beyond the 3-point line to try to get his shot going.
If he does that — even if it works — it would at least in some small way be advantage Kansas because those deeper shots are often lower percentage attempts and they can lead to longer rebounds when they miss, which could help negate WVU’s rebounding prowess.
The Jayhawks likely will not know the outcome of Saturday’s Texas-Baylor battle in Waco, Texas, when they take the floor on Saturday. And they probably wouldn’t care much even if they did.
Self emphasized this week that the Jayhawks have an opportunity to control their own destiny in the Big 12 title race and the easiest way to guarantee they win the league crown is by winning out.
With that said, if Baylor were to top the Longhorns in the 1 p.m. game on Saturday, that would go a long way toward helping the Jayhawks in their quest for another Big 12 ring.
KU and Texas are tied atop the Big 12 standings at 11-4, and if Kansas wins on Saturday and Texas loses, the Jayhawks would then be one game up with two to play. That would set up a scenario where Kansas could clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title by winning next Tuesday at home against Texas Tech.
The Jayhawks also are playing for postseason seeding beyond the Big 12 tournament. As it stands today, Kansas is projected as a No. 1 seed, which would make KU a top seed for the 10th time in 19 tournaments under Self.
Obviously, there’s plenty at stake every time they take the court right now. But the Jayhawks’ veterans and newcomers alike have pledged to maintain the same approach that has delivered five consecutive wins since falling to Iowa State in Ames and helped them bounce back from a three-game losing skid in the middle of Big 12 play.
“That streak taught us a lot about ourselves,” McCullar said Thursday. “We learned from it and kept a level head and coach told us we have to be the hardest working team out there. That’s what we’ve been doing and it’s been working for us.”
KU leads the all-time series with West Virginia 19-6 overall and 10-0 in games played in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have won four in a row over the Mountaineers and nine of the last 10 matchups between the two.
KenPom lists the Jayhawks as 7-point favorites in this one, with a win probability rate of 74%.
West Virginia, which lost five in a row to open the Big 12 slate, snapped a three-game conference losing streak with an 85-67 home win over Oklahoma State earlier this week.
No. 3 Kansas
G – Dajuan Harris Jr., 6-1, 175, Jr.
G – Kevin McCullar Jr., 6-6, 210, Sr.
G – Gradey Dick, 6-8, 205, Fr.
F – Jalen Wilson, 6-8, 225, Jr.
F – KJ Adams, 6-7, 225, Soph.
West Virginia
G – Erik Stevenson, 6-4, 205, Sr.
G – Kedrian Johnson, 6-3, 185, Sr.
F – Emmitt Matthews Jr., 6-7, 210, Sr.
F – Tre Mitchell, 6-9, 225, Sr.
F – Jimmy Bell Jr., 6-10, 285, Sr.