A look at how the numbers and strategy will change at KU with Hunter Dickinson coming to the Jayhawks

By Shane Jackson     May 9, 2023

article image AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Michigan center Hunter Dickinson (1) shoots as Wisconsin forward Steven Crowl (22) defends in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Sunday, Feb. 26, 2023. All-American forward Hunter Dickinson, arguably the top player in the transfer portal after deciding to leave Michigan, said in a social media post Thursday, May 4, that he was headed to Kansas for the upcoming season.

The Kansas Jayhawks landed arguably the most-decorated transfer ever when Hunter Dickinson opted to take his talents to Lawrence, an announcement he made official via his personal Twitter account last Thursday.

Dickinson’s resume speaks for itself. In three seasons with the Michigan Wolverines, Dickinson averaged 17.2 points and 8.4 rebounds per game to lead the team in both categories in each of the past three seasons. He added 1.6 blocks and 1.6 assists for good measure, averaging 30.6 minutes in 94 career games.

The 7-foot-1 big man netted plenty of accolades with Michigan, as well. He was a Consensus All-America Second Team selection in 2022-23 and a three-time All-Big Ten selection.

Simply put, Dickinson is the star that the Jayhawks desperately needed to contend for a title during the 2023-24 campaign. But how exactly will he fit? What can KU fans expect to see from Dickinson when he steps on the court?

Here is a look at Dickinson’s biggest strengths as a player to help give everyone an idea of what to expect this upcoming season. All stats courtesy of analytical websites such as Synergy Sports Technology, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik and Evan Miya.

Return of the post-ups

Post-ups are back on the menu for Bill Self this season.

According to Synergy, KU ran a post-up just 3.8% of the time and ranked in the 10th percentile in the country in usage last season. It marked KU’s lowest post-up rate in Synergy’s tracking history, which began in 2005-06. In fact, the 2014-15 team was the next lowest with a post-up rate of 8.6%.

Of course, that is no surprise to anyone who was paying attention as KJ Adams Jr. served as a small-ball center. Dickinson’s arrival not only allows Adams to move to his more natural spot, but the former Wolverine also thrives in the post.

Per Synergy, Dickinson was utilized in a post-up 49.6% of the time last season, which ranked in the 98th percentile. He averaged 0.997 points per possession on such plays, ranking in the 77th percentile among all players in the nation. And that was while facing more double-teams, as he averaged 1.144 points per possession (94th percentile) on post-ups in 2021-22.

This was always why KU made the most sense for Dickinson when he was considering the likes of Kentucky, Maryland and Villanova. Nobody in the country is better than Self at creating angles for his big men, and Dickinson should take full advantage with his post-up game.

Double threat on ball screens

Self might have been the biggest reason for Dickinson’s decision to transfer to Kansas, but one has to believe point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. played a huge role as well. KU’s offense last year relied heavily on pick-and-rolls, and this Harris-Dickinson duo should continue to give opposing teams a heavy dose of that again next season.

But the best part about Dickinson is that he has options after setting a ball screen.

As the roll man on pick-and-rolls, he averaged 1.106 points per possession and ranked in the 65th percentile last year. For context, that is labeled “very good” on Synergy. He is also capable of stepping out and hitting a shot following the screen, as he made 13 of his 38 attempts on pick-and-pops last year.

As a spot-up shooter, Dickinson ranks in the 98th percentile with an average of 1.333 points per possession. He shot 42.1% from deep last year on an average of 1.7 3-point attempts per contest. It might be low usage, but teams have to respect Dickinson enough if he steps out toward the 3-point line.

Most of all, this allows the Jayhawks to have a counter if opposing teams try to take away the roll threat on pick-and-rolls.

Rebounding and defense

Dickinson should be able to do the traditional big-man things such as rebounding and rim protection, neither of which were a strength for the Jayhawks last year.

According to KenPom, Dickinson ranked 126th in the country with a block rate of 5.5% last year. He has had a block rate of 5% or better in all three collegiate seasons thus far. While Dickinson might struggle to defend players in space, he can hold his own when guarding opposing big men near the basket.

In the rebounding department, Dickinson ranked 111th in the country with a defensive rebound rate of 22.5% last season. As a team, the Jayhawks were 193rd in defensive rebounding and haven’t ranked in the top 100 in that metric since 2016.

Dickinson should provide a big boost on the glass and on the defensive end.

Conclusion

There is a reason why Dickinson was the top-ranked transfer, per EvanMiya’s rankings, with a Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) of 4.60. The addition of Dickinson catapults Kansas from contender to favorite heading into the upcoming season.

According to Bart Torvik’s RosterCast tool, the Jayhawks are now projected to be the No. 1 overall team after adding Dickinson. They were ranked ninth in the country prior to his announcement.

At Caesars Sportsbook, Kansas went from 22/1 to win the national title to the betting favorites at 12/1. This means the Jayhawks now have an implied probability of 7.69% of cutting down the nets next April.

Kansas is not done, either, as it continues to fill out its roster through the transfer portal. But expectations should be pretty high for Dickinson, a potential National Player of the Year candidate, and the rest of the Jayhawks in 2023-24.

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Written By Shane Jackson