It’s a battle of once-ranked teams that have lost back to back games this weekend in Waco, Texas, and the stakes are high for both teams.
Kansas, which remains one win shy of becoming bowl eligible for the first time in 14 seasons, either will snap its two-game losing skid, pick up that elusive sixth victory and head into its bye week riding high at 6-2 or the Jayhawks will see their losing streak reach three in a row.
Baylor is fighting to get its season back on track, as well. Picked in the preseason as the team to beat in the Big 12, Baylor already has dropped games to Oklahoma State and West Virginia in conference play and also lost to future-Big 12 foe BYU in Week 2.
The Bears have two road games after this week’s matchup with Kansas — at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma — and then finish the season with a stretch of three consecutive games against ranked teams in Kansas State, TCU and Texas.
Because of that, they’re starting to approach each game a little differently than they might have expected when the season began.
“I think going into it with the mentality that they’re the best team in the Big 12 might be necessary,” BU senior Ben Sims said of this week’s matchup with the Jayhawks.
For the second week in a row, KU will be without starting quarterback Jalon Daniels. And for the second week in a row, KU’s opponent will be getting its starting QB back.
Baylor’s Blake Shapen is expected to return to the huddle to lead what Kansas coach Lance Leipold called a “schematically sound” and balanced Baylor attack.
“It’s a complete offense that we’re going to have to be ready for,” Leipold said.
Baylor has defeated Kansas 12 times in a row by the combined score of 578-99 and while current BU coach Dave Aranda was only in charge for one of those, Leipold knows Aranda will have this bunch ready to roll as the Bears look to get back on track, as well.
“I have the utmost respect for Dave Arranda, for the job he’s done there, how he goes about it and how quickly he (turned) that program into a championship program.”
KU’s loss at OU last week knocked the Jayhawks out of the national polls, but Leipold is far more concerned about finding a way to play a complete game on both sides of the ball again rather than what happens if KU wins or how they handled being unranked again after two weeks at No. 19.
“As hard as it was to crack it, it probably was just as easy for them to remove us, which means we’ve still got a lot to prove to people,” he said. “But we have to prove it on the field. We have to be consistent.”
Kansas Jayhawks (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) at Baylor Bears (3-3, 1-2)
• McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas, 11 a.m.
• Broadcast: ESPN2
• Radio: KLZR 105.9 FM / KLWN 1320 AM
• Opening line: Kansas +9; over/under 58.5
• Series history: BU leads, 17-4 with a 12-game win streak
This season
Points per game: Kansas 40.1; BU 37.8
Points allowed per game: Kansas 30; BU 24.3
Yards per game: Kansas 439.9 (208 rushing, 231.9 passing); BU 461.8 (184.7 rushing, 277.2 passing)
Yards allowed per game: Kansas 439.4 (145.7 rushing, 293.7 passing); BU 350 (116.8 rushing, 233.2 passing)
Turnover margin: Kansas +0.43; BU -0.33
• Win the QB battle – There was a lot of talk about the quarterbacks again this week, with the status of Baylor’s Blake Shapen in question — he’s expected to play — and the play of KU’s Jason Bean a little more under the microscope than before. Leipold and the Jayhawks have praised the job Bean has done in relief of Jalon Daniels, but both Bean and his coaches will tell you that there are a few things he still needs to clean up. Preventing turnovers is one of them. But if Bean can do that, this offense should still be in position to put up enough points to win this game. At that point, it becomes a matter of how well the KU defense can contain Shapen and the Bears.
• Secondary in sync – It’s not just the fact that the KU secondary is likely to be without starting cornerback Cobee Bryant because of an ankle injury or just gave up 403 yards passing to OU that makes a key part of this matchup. But communicating and finding comfort on the field with different players in new roles this week will be critical against the Baylor offense. In addition to the strong play by Shapen, the Bears feature a talented group of receivers led by senior Gavin Holmes, who caught seven passes for 210 yards and a TD in last week’s loss at West Virginia. Michigan State transfer Kalon Gervin figures to be one of the most important players in KU’s secondary this week, with veteran transfer Monte’ McGary and sophomore cornerback Shaad Dabney also taking on more responsibilities if Bryant is out.
• Play from ahead – The Jayhawks fell behind in each of the past two games and never were able to fully recover in losses to TCU and Oklahoma. While these Jayhawks had no problem digging out of 14-0 holes on the road at West Virginia in Week 2 and Houston in Week 3, this current version of the Kansas team is not built to play catch-up. KU’s defense has given up 45 points per game in its two losses, and the offense, which still has scored 36.5 points per game in those losses, is not quite as dynamic with Bean at QB in place of Daniels. The Jayhawks want to run the ball as much as possible, and playing from behind is not the best way to do that. In addition to a lead being good for the game script, it likely would do wonders for the Jayhawks’ psyche, as well, as they look to get back on the winning track after hitting a mid-season road bump.
4: The Jayhawks surrendered just four sacks all season — one in each of the past four games after not giving up any during the first three weeks of the season — and that puts them tied for the fourth fewest sacks allowed in the FBS. KU has started the same five offensive linemen in all seven games and that continuity, from Earl Bostick Jr., Dominick Puni, Mike Novitsky, Michael Ford and Bryce Cabledue, has played a huge role in both KU’s overall success and the team’s explosive offense. KU allowed 16 sacks all of last season and 47 the year before.
39: KU’s 39 touchdowns thus far are the most in the Big 12 Conference this season and the most scored by a KU team in an entire season in the past 13 seasons. The last time KU recorded more than 39 touchdowns in a single season came in 2009, when KU scored 45 TDs in 12 games.
53.8: The Kansas offense ranks sixth in the country and No. 1 in the Big 12 in third-down conversion rate at 53.8%. That has been tested in the two KU losses, when the Jayhawks were just 10 for 25 on third down against TCU and OU, and the coaches and players have talked all season about better success on first and second down leading to more manageable third-down situations. Look for the Jayhawks to emphasize that approach even harder this week as they look to get back in the win column. KU’s defense also has to be better on third down this week, after allowing OU to convert 16 of 21 third-down opportunities in last week’s loss.
