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Charlie Weis should embrace risk with this year's Jayhawks

Kansas head football coach Charlie Weis goes over his depth chart and other changes to his team with an audience of media members on Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2013.

Kansas head football coach Charlie Weis goes over his depth chart and other changes to his team with an audience of media members on Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2013. by Nick Krug

SB Nation college football writer Bill Connelly never understood why former Kansas football coach Turner Gill ran the type of offense that he did.

Because KU faces a talent discrepancy against nearly every program it faces in the Big 12, Connelly believes Gill would have been better suited with an offensive philosophy more creative — or at least something that would give Big 12 defenses a different look.

“The bottom line is if (Big 12 heavyweights) are well-coached and recruiting well, you can’t beat them just trying to push them around and staying conservative,” Connelly said. “You have to figure out ways to take chances.”

According to Connelly, that’s the continuing mission for second-year KU coach Charlie Weis, whose team will most likely be an underdog in each of the nine conference games it plays this season.

Connelly — his advanced college football metrics like S&P+ and PPP+ have been used by teams like Texas and Ohio to get a deeper understanding of their own strengths and weaknesses — devotes a chapter in his recently released book, “Study Hall: College Football, Its Stats, and Its Stories” to underdog tactics. In that section, Connelly examines strategies that less-talented teams should use to try to gain an edge.

It basically comes down to this: As an underdog, you want to increase the variance — or the number of possible outcomes — in a game.

“You might lose by more sometimes,” Connelly said, “but you’re more likely to steal a win here or there, too.”

Connelly says Weis is off to a good start already as far as risky strategies go. The coach has brought in more than 20 junior-college players this year while looking for a quick fix to KU’s talent woes.

“If it weren’t high risk, then everybody would be doing it. Everybody would just be recruiting half their class from jucos,” Connelly said. “So clearly there is a downside to it, and it could very much not pay off. But if you’ve got a situation like what Weis inherited, where Gill just didn’t recruit very well … (Weis) is trying to win quickly, and this is the path to that.”

So what are some other high-risk, high-reward strategies that Weis should consider to increase his chances of pulling off a Big 12 upset or two?

Give different looks

One way an underdog can get a slight edge is by giving opponents something completely different to prepare for in the span of a week.

A good example of this was Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” offense under former coach Mike Leach. The Red Raiders found their own niche with the offense and thrived by doing something that no one else was doing.

Connelly believes KU might already have some of that covered with the pro-style offense that Weis runs. The coach’s announcement that he was going to play Tony Pierson as both a running back and wide receiver — much like West Virginia’s Tavon Austin was used last year — also could give KU a new offensive wrinkle.

Connelly says there are other ways teams can succeed by being different. For example, Iowa State has been able to pull off some upsets in recent years with a run-based offense that works because instead of trying to get smaller and quicker, the Cyclones have focused on making their players bigger and stronger.

Defensively, Connelly says a team that plays a base formation out of the ordinary — like a 3-3-5 — can potentially gain an advantage by making opponents prepare for something they don’t normally see.

Go for it

Many statistical studies have said the same thing in recent years: Football coaches don’t go for it enough on fourth downs.

In many instances, the benefits outweigh the risks.

Connelly gives the example of fourth-and-goal at the opponent’s one-yard line.

“Really, not going for it is the risk,” Connelly said. “In those types of situations, the field position that you give your opponent if you don’t convert the fourth down, it’s still worth something.

“A lot of coaches play it safe to their own detriment, because it’s less risky to go for it at that stage, and a lot of people don’t look at it that way.”

Though there are situations when a field goal is the call on fourth-and-goal at the 1 — down two with three seconds left would be one — for the most part, teams are giving away potential points because of conventional coaching wisdom that actually isn’t beneficial. These types of fourth-down decisions aren’t limited to the red zone either. Connelly said once a team crosses the 50, going for it on fourth-and-short isn’t tremendously risky, and in fact, could pay off big.

One coach who believes in this is Bob Stitt, who has led Colorado School of Mines — a school with major recruiting obstacles because of its high academic standards — to 11 winning seasons in the last 13 years.

Stitt views a fourth-down conversion as a “turnover” for the offense. If his offense converts on fourth-and-3, then the opposing defense has to stay on the field after believing it had already accomplished its goal on third down.

“That’s a great situation to take advantage of a defense that might be more talented than you,” Connelly said.

Weis already appears to be a high-risk guy when it comes to fourth downs, as the Jayhawks’ 32 fourth-down conversion attempts in 2012 tied for the eighth-most in Division I.

Playing against tendencies

Connelly groaned every time he heard a TV announcer talk about how much Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez had improved his throwing mechanics in 2012.

Connelly knew from watching that wasn’t the case.

“His passing motion still was just awful to watch,” Connelly said, “but they were much more successful because they were passing at times that opponent really thought they would run.”

The Cornhuskers were putting Martinez in a position to thrive by passing on downs like first-and-10 and second- and third-and-short.

By being unpredictable, the Huskers allowed Martinez to complete a high number of short passes while also keeping themselves out of third-and-longs.

“They took advantage of defensive tendencies and defensive assumptions,” Connelly said, “and stole free yards via the air.”

In the end, Connelly says it comes down to doing whatever you can to keep a defense that might be bigger, stronger and faster than you from becoming comfortable.

Results?

So what can a high-risk, high-reward strategy do for a team?

Connelly says it’s a lot like a college basketball team shooting a lot of threes and pressing against a heavy favorite.

“It might fail miserably,” Connelly said, “but if it succeeds, you can actually pull an upset here or there.”

In college football, where wins are most important, a coach can be rewarded if he’s not afraid to “risk it up,” even if that means that a blowout loss is possible.

Connelly gives the example of going for it on fourth-and-4 from an opponent’s 40-yard line. Yes, an incomplete pass could give the opponent the ball near midfield.

But what would a conversion do for the underdog?

“You’re giving yourself a chance to win that you didn’t have before,” Connelly said. “ If you’re at a program that has hardly won any games over the past two years, why wouldn’t you do that?”

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Comments

Dirk Medema 1 year ago

I read an article last year about a HS team that almost doesn't have a punter or kicker. They rarely ever punter, and always go for the onside kick. I'm recalling one game where they had like 6 offensive possessions/TD's before the other team even touched the ball.

What was the game(s) that KU stayed in last year because they took chances? UT? KSU?

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Jason Keller 1 year ago

It was the KSU game. Weis carried this team through the first half of that game. He was 3 steps ahead of their D-coordinator. The KSU coaches had to rely on pure horsepower to beat us. That was the day coach Weis sold me. I believe with equal talent, Charlie's staff can out coach Bill's staff.

This is our best chance to beat the Wildcats in years.

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CrystalJones 1 year ago

Hawks 41, Cats 18. Mark it down.

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Brad Farha 1 year ago

I went bananas when Heeney chased down Klein to stop the touchdown at the end of the half. That kid has heart.

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Brett McCabe 1 year ago

Agree totally with the premise of the article and to kellerman's comments on the KSU game.

I loved how we went for it last year, I loved the gadget plays and the fact that our offense is different from virtually every other offense in the league.

The Weis approach (do you like what I did there?) should pay off even more this year when we should have a more balanced and effective offense that will keep opposing defenses on their heels more.

With the change in position for Bourbon and Pierson plus the addition of Miller and Heaps, teams will have to defend us sideline to sideline this year. And they'll have to defend us for four downs.

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Bob Reinsch 1 year ago

We've got nothing to lose. Why not take chances?

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John Myers 1 year ago

Weis was not going for it on 4th downs because he's a risk-taker, he was going for it because our kickers absolutely sucked and couldn't make a field goal outside 30 yards.

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Jonathan Allison 1 year ago

you beat me to it.

It looked to me that we started going for it on fourth downs because Weis lost all faith in the kicking game after we got into conference play. However the upgrade in quality of opponent may have played a role as well in Weis decided that he needed to be more aggressive on 4th downs. By halfway through the conference schedule though a fake field goal attempt had gotten fairly predictable.

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Brett McCabe 1 year ago

That is a fair statement, especially later in the season as the field goal kicking failed to improve. However, he also went for it at times when kicking either wasn't an option or, even with the sorry state of our kicking game, it would have been an easy make.

Either way, Weis showed that he could be innovative and would take risks.

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NebraskaJayhawk 1 year ago

I'm not buying completely into this theory and I don't think Coach Weis does either. I think he looks at it not so much as being "risky" or "gambling" when he calls plays, but more as creative. He's been a creative play-caller his whole life and let's face it, with a decent QB last year we end up winning at least 3-4 games and who knows how many more. I think if Heaps is a better-than-average QB this season, we have a chance to be in every game of the season. And if we are improved on the defensive side of the ball, which I think we should be, we could easily shock the football world this season. Yes, Texas and Oklahoma get all the 4 and 5 star recruits and yes it does mean something. But I don't think Texas is that well coached. We can beat these guys without being "risky". Just my opinion.

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Chris Bailey 1 year ago

Here we go with the over predicting crap again. We have yet to put any of this on the field. I'm so tired of people predicting wins/losses. Be realistic. If we win 3 we've improved. We have an outside shot at 5-6 wins. Any more than 3 and we over achieved or to say it better the players lived up to the hype. I can't take another fall of predicting how many wins we're gonna have based on the past 3 seasons. Let's see game 1! If we are dominate and by dominate I mean the opposition scores less than 10 and we break 50 we can gauge the season a bit better. We'll know a lot more after we play Rice. If we beat them handedly we know we might not be too bad. I know it's hard not to make predictions I wanna do the same but I just can't stomach them knowing the outcome of the last 3 seasons. Nothing malicious NE Jayhawk!

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CrystalJones 1 year ago

There's nothing wrong with being optimistic...and realistic! That fact is that we are putting a powerhouse offense out there this year, with the best running back unit in the nation, the #1 high school QB in his class, and terrific WR's. Oh, and did I mention that we have an NFL All Pro coaching the O-line, and a former NFL head coach coordinating the D? And then there's this little matter of who the head coach is... multiple Super Bowl rings on those fat fingers of his.

We're going to be damn good...THIS year, not just next. 8 wins and a very good bowl. Can't wait.

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Chris Bailey 1 year ago

I'll buy your bowl ticket if we achieve that record! Mark it down. Optimistic? Powerhouse offense? All unproven with the exception of our running backs. Yeah being optimistic is ok but being over confident is what statements like that get you eating your words. 3 straight losing seasons and 3 straight count it 4 that we have an over excited and over inflated opinion of our unproven team. Look I want us to win as much as anyone but we need to win our first 3 games easily before you see me jump on any win band wagon.

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Chris Bailey 1 year ago

If we did that the opposition would just put 8 in the box and shut us down. We gotta have some passing attack to keep the defenses honest. We're not Nebraska 94-95 with horses up front that can just dominate the line of scrimage. We can run the ball don't get me wrong and have great talent at the position but that's asking a lot. I think we gotta keep the D's guessing.

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pbouldenv 1 year ago

Good article Jesse. I am all for going for it on 4th down in most cases, especially in the opponent's territory. However, I am sick of multiple TD losses and really hope KU can eliminate those in 2013. If your team is starting to fall behind in the game, there is certainly a point where you need eliminate the bleeding and avoid having a blowout loss. No need to compound the inevitable loss by having it be a blowout. Nothing hurts program momentum more then getting blown out multiple times...it hurts the team's and fan's moral.

KU tried to kick a 52 yard FG against Rice last year that was an unacceptable risk (since the odds were so low for anything longer than 40 yards) If I recall, it was a forth and short situation. KU would have been much better off in going for it or by punting. I am pretty sure KU's lead at that time was 8-10 pts.

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