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Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby made a visit to the Kansas University campus on Thursday, Aug. 23., 2012, one of nine stops he hopes to make during a 14-day span as he gets the lay of the land at each Big 12 school.
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Bob Bowlsby, the Big 12’s first-year commissioner, toured Kansas University’s campus and athletic-department facilities Wednesday and Thursday.
During a late-Wednesday afternoon stroll, he was able to “even peek through the crack and watch a little bit of football practice,” Bowlsby said during a Thursday afternoon news conference in the Allen Fieldhouse media room.
“I had a business card ready in case they were going to chase me away,” the 60-year-old former Stanford, Iowa and Northern Iowa athletic director added, smiling.
Bowlsby, who in the span of two weeks will be traveling to nine of the 10 Big 12 campuses (he’ll trek to West Virginia in late September), need not have worried about being shooed away from KU’s closed football practice.
He’s on good terms with both KU football coach Charlie Weis and basketball coach Bill Self.
“I’ve known coach Self a long time. I was six years on the men’s basketball committee,” Bowlsby said. “I think a lot of him. We played Notre Dame four times while coach Weis was at Notre Dame. It’s a fairly small fraternity.
“I look forward to being around them and watching what they do with their programs; obviously they are in different situations. One (program) is fully mature and competing at the very top of the country, and the other is in its infancy in terms of a new regime. Both are fun to watch. I think both will do a lot of good things. I expect to get here frequently during the course of the year. That’ll do nothing but enhance those relationships.”
Bowlsby said he was impressed with KU’s hoops and football facilities.
“Going through Allen Fieldhouse ... it is a classic venue, and the things that have been done around it are really spectacular,” Bowlsby said. “The support facilities, administrative facilities, the new football complex ... all of that is as good as there is anyplace in college athletics.
“I think men’s and women’s basketball and football are in great shape. The baseball diamond is terrific. Developmental facilities are great. I think KU probably has as good of weight-room facilities in terms of both quality and volume as I’ve ever seen. There are an awful lot of pieces of the puzzle in place. It sounds like plans are in place for improvements in a lot of other areas that will support the Olympic sports,” he added.
In the breaking-news department, Bowlsby said the league should soon be finalizing its multiyear TV deal that has been estimated in media reports at $2.6 billion. FOX and ABC/ESPN are expected to share broadcast and cable rights in the deal that could cover as many as 13 years. He said exposure for all sports “will be unprecedented.”
“We’re not working under any sort of deadline,” Bowlsby said. “We have an agreement on almost all elements of it.”
Also, a joint announcement with the SEC over the location for the newly created Champions Bowl should be coming soon. The AP reported that cities under consideration are Atlanta, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio and Arlington, Texas.
Bowlsby reiterated that he felt league administrators were in favor of staying at 10 teams, but that the conference would always be open to considering expansion.
“I think we are also feeling good about the fact we brought in two ranked football teams (TCU, West Virginia) in exchange for the two that moved out (Missouri, Texas A&M),” he said. “I think that’s a real source of strength for the Big 12.”
He said he has heard other schools are interested in joining the Big 12.
“We are contacted all the time by institutions that say ... it’s kind of like junior high dating: ‘Would you like him if he liked you?’ and that sort of back-channel stuff. You can’t afford to ignore it, but you can’t afford to dwell on it. We have too many other important things to do,” he said.
As far as the number 10 ... “It’s fair to say that some (conferences) that have gotten larger are now wondering if it’s going to be worth it,’’ Bowlsby said, “because there’s going to be complexities, especially regarding some of the scheduling issues that have really caused some problems. In the ACC and the SEC, there are some institutions that have 100-year histories of playing each other that aren’t going to be playing each other. And I think the reality of the larger number has kind of sunk in.’’
Bowlsby’s tour of the league continues today at Kansas State.
Comments
okiedave 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Bowlsby does not have any idea how lucky he is -- he does not need to make a tour of the Mizzou facilities. People have been known to contract diseases over there.
wats211 8 months, 4 weeks ago
We know the clout Chuck Neinas had and he handpicked Bowlsby...great hire and look for Notre Dame to be first on his list to restore the league to twelve and people are mentioning Louisville....not so fast....Arkansas is a possibility...because the SEC west is so tough..and if ND comes in...the BIG12 is a better league than the SEC and that will mean more TV money and money talks...plus the hogs miss Texas and the recruiting there
Brock 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Tulane...LOL.
raprichard 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I about spit water out of my nose when I read this! Anyone that knows the history on this site has to love this comment.
JHWKDW 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Yeah we need Notre Dame like we all need unnecessary root canals done to us all!
Maybe you are not aware they will always be independent in football. They Promised the Big LEast they would join the conference in Football after they joined several years ago, Guess what they still haven't joined.In addition the money the get from Football from NBC they will not share with us so you want a poison pill like that in our conference? In addition the Big LEast had a hard time getting them to schedule games with teams in their conference to help them out.Yeah we got one team like that who has their own Television Network and they do the same things Notre Dame does you might have heard of them yeah its The Texas Longhorns we have enough problem with them I SAY THANKS BUT NO THANKS TO NOTRE DAME!
jhawk7782 8 months, 4 weeks ago
From Athletic Director at the University of Northern Iowa to Big 12 Commissioner? Big leap but will reserve judgement.
I hope he is up to the job at a particularly tough time. I would like to see us add 2 schools.
Arkansas? Never happen! Notre Dame? Same..will never happen.
Would prefer schools such as Louisville or Memphis. That would give the Big 12 both a strong presence in both football and basketball.
inteldesign 8 months, 3 weeks ago
From Stanford to Big12.
inteldesign 8 months, 3 weeks ago
ND and Arkansas? I think it is possible as long as most people think it is impossible.
thekuinthe512 8 months, 4 weeks ago
No one cares about Notre Dame, they are irrelevant, Sorry, like Michigan. You all have sucked for years. The Big whatever sucks and the BIG 12/10 will roll. You will never be better than us, because you won't play us. Signed, Losers! You are the past, we are the future.
JHWKDW 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Bob Bowlsby you are a good guy, and you did a hell of a job at Stanford do not get me wrong, but until you get the Longhorns under control things will look more Jerry Springer like than a happy family. Honestly did anyone know about the crap Texas tried to pull on Texas Tech with their game against Texas State? Texas Longhorns tried to in a hostile matter take over the game and against T Tech's wishes and put it on the Longhorn Network against their wishes. Texas Tech almost cancelled the game because of this.You know this happened this summer and it didn't even get mentioned by any local press. The only reason this did not happen was ESPN stopped it.
Need I say that it was pathetic that Texas Longhorns flew Florida State and Clemson the middle finger when they showed interest in the Big XII when everyone else kept quiet. Do not tell me that you are happy at 10, hey you think any team worth their weight in salt wants to come to us after what Texas did to Florida State and Clemson, and how they bully everyone? I know for example Iowa State has said they wanted the Big 12 to be a super conference You sound like Deloss Dodds saying you are happy at 10..
Bob Like I said I like you but going and complaining about teams that left before you came in makes us look bad! If you want to blame anyone blame that prick commissioner Beebe for being the Longhorns lapdog and making team leave because he catered to Texas to much.
Bob I hope you can turn it around.Best of luck to you.
jaybate 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Informed, thoughtful and informative take. Thx.
mpann1818 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Are you sure Texas is the reason FSU and Clemson are not part of the Big 12.
Any discussion about changing the conference name? Maybe they should have corporate sponsor names? The Budweiser 10 or Pampers 10? No? Hahaha. How about naming it after Nienas? The Neinas Conference. Big Neinas. Or maybe we all need to start incorporating USA somehow in the names since we are so non-geographic specific these days. USA X.
kufaninmo 8 months, 4 weeks ago
because...they is hongry.
JHWKDW 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Look I am not just saying this, Deloss Dodds stated it to the people in Orangebloods.com that he shot down the Rumors of Florida State and Clemson.He did not want them. Like I say I do not want you to believe me, the info is out there google it. Deloss Dodds was the only one who shot down Florida State and Clemson. Guess what the response to Florida State or Clemson was by Zenger or even K-State,Iowa State or any of the other 6 schools? They said nothing about it.
Well before Missouri and A&M even left, Iowa State was one that was in favor of a super conference.
If you are looking for a funny name how about the Beebe-Free Conference?
kckuguy 8 months, 4 weeks ago
You sound more like a disgruntled MU fan than a Kansas fan and you are so vane you actually think Bowlsby is going to read your garbage. Have you always wanted to be looked at as someone who is important ? FYI, bigger does not mean better, so yes all 10, including Kansas want to stay at 10.
JHWKDW 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Im no Missouri fan! Yeah I am angry that the the original Big 8 is no more, but I am no Missouri fan! If 12 teams was acceptable at one time, and it was then why is 12 too much now? If it was why are so many conferences at 12 now if it sucks as much as Bowlsby and Dodds says it does?
JHWKDW 8 months, 3 weeks ago
When it comes to Texas, remember the saying fool me once shame on them, fool me twice shame on me. I will never trust or hate any team more than backstabbing, lying and selfish Texas! Dude does it not suck that we lost Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri who were the original Big 8 teams and all the history because of Texas selfishness?
jhawk7782 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Since when does having a different opinion made you a Missouri fan? No reason to be close minded. I can't see the Big 12 not adding two more schools, there is too much money at stake.
And anybody who doesn't see that Texas has far too much influence as to the direction of the Big 12, isn't paying attention.
inteldesign 8 months, 3 weeks ago
I think you see a Texas shadow every time you walk down a lonely street. Yeah, and Mossad took down the twin towers, we never landed on the moon, and ETs are living among us.
JHWKDW 8 months, 3 weeks ago
No I see history repeating itself! You know if you do not study history history will repeat itself. Remember that wise ol saying?Texas helped destroy the SWC!Just like they are here in the Big XII!
No conspiracies just the facts!
JakeBarnes 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Bull! The Conference is better off with TCU and West Virginia, at least in football, than with having Texas A&M (mostly hype) and Missouri (mostly, well you know what to keep it clean). Layoff of Texas. They are with us.
MoonwalkMafia66 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Ya. On the subject of Texas A&M. They are one of the most underachieving football programs in college sports.
JHWKDW 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Im sorry I respect you and all,but you did not hear about what happened earlier this summer, Texas is against everyone, they are out for themselves and only themselves. You do not try to play shenanigans like Texas tried to do against Texas Tech by taking one of their games by force, and putting it on the Longhorn Network against their wishes. You are not with anyone if you pull garbage like that. How Could Texas be with everyone when they could screw another team in Texas like that? If they could do that to Texas Tech, you don't think they could screw Kansas, or anyone else in our conference like that?
I do not want you to believe me, just read this from CBS that pointed out what happened this summer. They are not with the Big XII they are out for themselves, and they are destroying the Big XII just like the SWC.
Read the link below please, the LJW or no one reported like it should have about what Texas did. With Friends like Texas why have enemies? You wonder why Clemson or Florida State do not want to come to this Jerry Springer Drama?
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/eye-on-college-football/19399355/texas-tech-may-cancel-game-against-texas-state
REHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Speaking of 100 year rivalries, let's never reward those deserting east border turdmongers with another penny of gate money in any sport.
KUHawkhead 8 months, 4 weeks ago
While we all know that Mizzou is the true butthole of the entire NCAA sports world.....I predict that within ten years, heads will cool, money will be NEEDED, and I foresee the Camarohead showdown returning, Saturday after thanksgiving, as a noncon game. Unless of course the SEC has kicked MU out, and we are stuck with the trash known as Mizzou again....
bradynsdad 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I know this is not about the new commish but it's worth talking about. Yesterday Biancardi posted a picture of Conner Frankcamp and Brannen Greene standing next to each at a tourney. Someone is drastically lying about their height! Greene was a minimum of 7 to 10 inches taller than Frankcamp. So either Conner is not the advertised 6'1 or Greene is not 6'3. The only other alternative is that Greene was wearing high heels and Conner had not shoes on at all. Just thought I would throw this out there.
tical523 8 months, 4 weeks ago
greene is advertised as 6'7'' and frankamp is 6'0''
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I've met Conner and if he is over 5'-10" tall, monkeys will be flying out of my butt today at 2:00 pm!!
konkeyDong 8 months, 4 weeks ago
He's visibly taller than Tharpe, who's 5'11". So did those monkeys hurt?
Tuskin 8 months, 4 weeks ago
...checking in for the update...
jhawk7782 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Flying monkeys? Oh wait...an L Frank Baum reference.
jaybate 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Bowlsby has fascinated me as a choice all along. He is a green AD with Stanford and Iowa connections. Long term, the Big 12/10 has to expand to 4 time zones, or be slowly poached to death. It has to play three games at once.
Game 1 is get to four time zones of football basketball content in increments.
Game 2 is to use that four time zone coverage to begin using television to ramp up the "Olympic sports" into a revenue generating monster that feeds seamlessly into the Olympic monster.
Game 3 is to use this four time zone monster conference as the university pork conduit apparatus to buy the influence in constituent states to lay the big resource, transportation, power and water infrastructures across North America the rest of the 21st century.
The Big 12/10 has to expand up the Ohio Valley to extend the northeast branch of the super corridor. It has to expand northwest to Canada, where the mineral resources have to be stripped out to pay down the national debt. And its got to expand west because part or all of the Colorado River basin states will eventually stand to make more cooperating with this continental infrastructure expansion than obstructing it.
So: Its got to have a mountain west div., a central div., and an eastern div. at a minimum. And the best deal would be to have a Pacific div. to span all 4 time zones.
Long term, it needs to chip away at the Big Ten members, or alternatively find common ground with Big Ten states.
And it needs to do the same with the Pac 12 states.
Bowlsby's back ground with both conferences makes him suited to those tasks. a couple top programs in each time zone.
Bowlsby knows fast expansion depends on who gets elected President.
If Mitt, all ahead full on expansion in all directions.
If Obama, then hunker down another four years.
jhawkrulz 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I guess I have never seen someone expressing the growth into all 4 time zones (except for the Big East, but that was out of desperation).
6 of the largest populations are in the East. 3 of the largest populations are in the Central 0 in the Mountain. 1 in the West (LA)
My understanding is that the Central area is growing the fastest with Dallas, Houston, Chicago.
However, in Phoenix, LV, and California cities are actually struggling to grow.
So why would we want to grow West?
I agree in principle in going after new markets Central and East coast are where the people are and that is where the growth should be.
I would also state that I'm good with 10 teams, and I hope we stay there. Actually, I think 9 teams are ideal, you just have to figure out during football season, some non-conference foes during "conference season", but with rising number of independents, that would be easier.
raprichard 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I honestly can't tell if this is sarcasm or serious discussion.
yates33333 8 months, 4 weeks ago
This is intelligent, not the bit you endorsed earlier. I agree with the people who criticized that comment.
Brock 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Jaybate has started the day with a little extra green in his breakfast brownies.
jaybate 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I am a confirmed non drug taker.
That leaves
a) crazy;
b) wrong; or
c) right.
I've never been cursed with insanity, so that leaves b, or c.
Watch and listen to the politicians on the future of resource extraction in North America, especially Romney. He has an ad out now promising all of America's energy will be produced domestically by 2020.
Follow the money.
Football and basketball content across 4 time zones.
Growth model from "Olympic" sports. TV can sell anything.
Use the athletic department to drive the university.
Use the university to drive the state.
Use the state to drive infrastructure votes.
Use conference blocks of states to drive infrastructure through those states.
Game. Set. Match.
Follow the money, Brock, follow the money.
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
JB, with my #2 lead pencil I would check off "d] a and c" if that was another choice....;but in a good way!!!, After all, I'd rather be a little crazy and a lot of right!! :)
BainDread 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Use the athletic department to drive the university? Penn State tried that. Don't think that experiment worked out too well for them.
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Part 4
If you remember nothing else, remember these bullets:
• Oil has reputedly been found at depths where there seemed to be insufficient biotic sedimentation to justify oil's formation there.
• Certain oil fields have reputedly evidenced recharging.
• Hibbert's curve has reputedly made one accurate forecast...for the continental USA (once) that may be contradicted, if the USA were to ramp up for a massive increase in oil production, as appears likely now, and go looking deep and hard for oil.
• Hubbert's curve has reputedly failed to forecast oil production in the USSR.
• Oilcos have a long history of hugely mis-stating reserves, for whatever reason. A relative of mine, a veteran oilco professional, told me in no uncertain terms in 1975 that the world had already effectively run out of oil. Really? Ummmm, wrong.
• Hubbert was reputedly significantly a creature of the oilcos. If you were an oilco owner, would you rather have the world think oil was a scarce resource, or one so plentiful you used it to make grocery bags out of because it was created to significant amount abiotically and in a recharging sort of way? :-)
• Some time after the moment that Atlantic Richfield developed the technique of exploring the earth's crust reputedly nearly all the way to the mantel for oil (more or less earth tomography achieved by bouncing certain wave spectra off the ionosphere and back to earth), the mapping of reserves has become vastly more accurate than in Hubert's days, and deep discoveries have ushered in a new age of oil production that essentially does not meet the conditions under which the Hubbert Curve was formulated and his forecasts were made, as nearly as I can tell.
konkeyDong 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I'll say A, B, and A & B. Follow the money? Okay, but why follow it places it doesn't go? I can see growing a super conference and TV rev, but sports money usually just goes back into feeding the athletics department, not the university as a whole. Even if it did, the affect would more likely be the university becoming independent from the state. After all, states keep reducing funding for public universities, so if they can produce all their own revenue, odds are they'd become more independent from state legislatures than they already are, not become more intertwined. Add to that the increasingly conservative face of the Midwest, and I don't see the most liberal institutions in any given state steering the state governments.
Further, are mineral extraction projects and public infrastructure the primary demands of universities? What universities usually extract out of the federal government are research grants and facilities which the new found sports revenue would obviate the need for, or at least mitigate it. As for Romney the ads, I suppose that I'd be shocked if a politician ever made a pie in the sky promise during a campaign and then failed to deliver, or even act on that promise once elected. That's never happened before.
Lastly, energy independence has next to nothing to do with the national debt. At the moment, we're a net exporter of finished petroleum products. That's more of a national security issue. The national debt is fueled by the same things it's been fueled by during my life time: A, the unwillingness of Americans to raise taxes to pay for things we want; and B, the unwillingness of Americans to accept reductions in government services, social entitlements, and military spending despite the short falls in our revenue to pay for such expenditures. Whatever the net worth revenue that could be generated from the mineral resources in the US that could be realistically mined by 2020, it pales in comparison to to the ever increasing debt. And building public infrastructure would only add to that burden.
Game. Set. Match? Not. So. Fast!
Tuskin 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Our heavy usage of foreign oil leads to a large trade deficit. A large trade deficit means fewer American dollars stay in America. If we had more American dollars staying in America, demand would rise. If demand rises, companies must produce more. If companies must produce more, more people are hired. If more people are hired, unemployment drops. If unemployment drops, more people need to drive to work. If more people drive to work, we need to buy more oil from overseas...
konkeyDong 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Sorry tuskin, but foreign oil imports are not driving trade deficits. After all, our biggest trading deficit is with China, from whom we import no oil, not the Middle Eastern and South American countries that supply us with crude. Like I said, we're a net exporter of finished petroleum products, so although we import oil, we export gas to the same people supplying us the oil. We also sell them things like mining equipment and consulting services, etc., all of which fuels American employment and shrinks trade deficits. Again, energy independence has next to nothing to do with national debt.
jhawk7782 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Just how sure are you about 'a) crazy' Sybill? Err...jay.
jhawk7782 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Familiar with the Peak Energy Curve?
konkeyDong 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Is that directed at me or Jaybate?
jhawk7782 8 months, 3 weeks ago
jaybate..but not meant in any type of negative or derogatory way.
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
jhawk7782,
Glad you asked.
Peak Energy Curve?
Have they renamed Hubbert's hoary old Peak Oil Theory that has been refuted so many times before? :-)
Hubbert's curve articulated in 1956 was apparently different from previous oil depletion forecasting tools in that it was constructed based on historical data about reserve discoveries, rather than just on historical data about oil pumped. Given the vagaries of estimating reserve discoveries over the years, I was leery of Hubbert's Curve from the get go.
All you need to know about Hubbert's Curve first articulated in 1956 is that it:
a) assumes oil fields are finite (a questionable assumption given discoveries about abiotic oil);
b) assumes all discovered reserves are made known at the time of their discovery and in the correct quantity (doubtful if you know the oil bidness);
c) assumes discovered reserves can be reliably estimated before they have been pumped out (doubtful based on the 20th Century record);
d) the curve does not predict oil reserves, but rather oil production based on those reserves (in essence it forecasts not whether a reserve runs out of oil, but rather it forecasts the pattern of oil producer behavior regarding pumping oil from a reserve; this is significant, because oil producer behavior is driven by net benefit constraints which do change over time); and
e) the "theory" inexplicably (and mysteriously) has reputedly proven unreliable in fields controlled by the former USSR. :-)
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Part 2
Well, it also helps to know that Hubbert, a graduate of the University of Chicago endowed by the Rockefeller fortune (just a historical fact, not a conspiracy theory), had been a geophysicist that had over the years worked for American Petroleum Company, taught at Columbia, worked for the Board of Economic Warfare (later the Office of Economic Warfare), the Anglo American oil refiner's oligopoly member Shell Oil, Stanford, and Berkeley, before working at USGS to finish his career as a scholar and possible scholarly schill for the oilcos. I will leave the bias assessment to you.
What I will do now is state the essense of what Hubbert really said, as nearly as a layman with my humble skills can.
He supposedly "demonstrated" that the world's oil supply is "finite." This finiteness "demonstration" is never dwelled upon, but it stands to reason it is crucial to the logic of his hypothesis.
Alas, the finiteness assumption has been called into question by the discovery that whether, or not, oil is produced in part consistent with a biotic hypothesis, it is also produced in part by abiotic processes.
The biotic process means biotic sediment is compressed by overlying strata with great weight into coal, then oil, without putting to fine of a point on things. Presently, there is no reason to doubt that this hypothesis is possible, where ever biotic sedimenation exists in quantities and under sufficient pressure for necessary lengths of time, to produce oil reserves. But it gets creaky when it has to explain the existence of oil at depths where there is apparently inadeqaute biotic sedimentation and/or inadequate pressure and time to trigger oil formation. And it does not explain reserve recharging, other than to say, "hmmm, the darned stuff must be coming from some region of the field we have not yet found." Well, gee, if they can't map the oil reserves well enough to know where apparent recharging is occurring from, how the devil can they trust they know how much oil was in the reserve discovery in the first place that was then used to graph the production life cycle timing? :-)
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Part 3
The abiotic hypothesis asserts at least some oil originates from on-going chemical reactions in the upper mantel and is forced by heat and pressure upwards through cracks into the crust.
(Note: scholars doing lots of research for the oilcos and geologists, geophysicists and petroleum engineers I have read, or spoken to, get really irritated about abiotic oil. Ten or fifteen years or so ago they often flatly denied oil formation could happen abiotically. Today, there seems no credible dispute oil can form abiotically, they just bristle and say something like, "well, yes, it occurs, but hardly at all." :-)
Evidence for the abiotic hypothesis is now very strong, as I understand it, though the traditionalists still quite "confident" that only small amounts of oil are created abiotically. Put slightly differently, the only real debate centers on how much oil is produced abiotically--a lot or a little--and how fast it may be produced--fast enough that certain reserves have appeared to recharge rapidly--or very slowly over eons, say the way the rain and snow in Colorado moves out to Kansas in the Oglala Aquifer. This to the Larry Layman that I am, this calls the "finite" assumption of Hubbert's Curve into serious question.
And IMHO, without the finiteness assumption, Hubbert's curve and his forecasting model are logically flawed.
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Part 4
If you remember nothing else, remember these bullets: • Oil has reputedly been found at depths where there seemed to be insufficient biotic sedimentation to justify oil's formation there.
• Certain oil fields have reputedly evidenced recharging.
• Hibbert's curve has reputedly made one accurate forecast...for the continental USA (once) that may be contradicted, if the USA were to ramp up for a massive increase in oil production, as appears likely now, and go looking deep and hard for oil.
• Hubbert's curve has reputedly failed to forecast oil production in the USSR.
• Oilcos have a long history of hugely mis-stating reserves, for whatever reason. A relative of mine, a veteran oilco professional, told me in no uncertain terms in 1975 that the world had already effectively run out of oil. Really? Ummmm, wrong.
• Hubbert was reputedly significantly a creature of the oilcos. If you were an oilco owner, would you rather have the world think oil was a scarce resource, or one so plentiful you used it to make grocery bags out of because it was created to significant amount abiotically and in a recharging sort of way? :-)
• Some time after the moment that Atlantic Richfield developed the technique of exploring the earth's crust reputedly nearly all the way to the mantel for oil (more or less earth tomography achieved by bouncing certain wave spectra off the ionosphere and back to earth), the mapping of reserves has become vastly more accurate than in Hubert's days, and deep discoveries have ushered in a new age of oil production that essentially does not meet the conditions under which the Hubbert Curve was formulated and his forecasts were made, as nearly as I can tell.
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Part 5
One more thing: in 1974, Hubbert projected that global oil production would peak in 1995 "if current trends continue".
The "if current trends continue" reveals the nature of Hubbert's Curve. Hubert is not talking about how much oil exists. He is talking about how much oil producers will produce "if current trends continue." This is critical for laymen to understand.
And then, of course, then current trends did not continue, so even if Hubbert accurately predicted in 1974 a peak in 1995, it was could have been random coincidence. His forecast was conditioned on then current trends continuing. They didn't.
Vast new discoveries at depths beyond search techniques in 1974 are being made frequently now.
Climate scientists, after predicting global cooling for a decade late in the 20th Century, began predicting global warming (without batting an eye at the contradiction, I might add) in the first two decades of the 21st Century and this prediction has triggered a massive effort among nation states and producer oligopolies to alter carbon footprints, i.e., by trying to reduce green house gas emissions. This has lead to among other things significant attempts to alter petroleum consumption per capita by introduction of hybrid and renewable energy sources.
But much more is different than in Hubbert's time than a few Priuses. Unprecedented demand for petroleum in emerging economies like China and India and elsewhere has begun, something Hubbert was not forecasting to my knowledge. This emergence of new demand has created an entirely new economic matrix where heavily depleted reserves once thought no longer economic have seen their productive lives dramatically lengthened, and vast new reserves of lower grade crude and tar sands (to say nothing of fracking and cracking coal to refine it) have become feasible to refine into black gold, Texas tea...oil that is.
Hence, reserves that Hubbert's Curve would have treated as near the right tail of the bell curve suddenly may find themselves farther to the left in the curve. And a good many gooey, pitch-like crude reserves that were not even acknowledged as discoveries, may suddenly get a fresh new Hubbert Curve all their own. :-)
Peak oil is not a proven theory in any general sense, and it is out dated in any case.
In my humble opinion, peak oil is an obsolete hypothesis that is rolled out periodically to film flam and scare those that have not taken the time to study it and inform themselves about its holes.
But I'm a layman.
Just as the professionals have often been wrong in their forecasts about specific fields, regions, and the world, I could be, too.
But one thing I am a very confident of.
Many trends current in Hubbert's time of 1974 have changed sharply since. :-)
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
Part 6
Note: Regarding Parts 1-6 of this post, I am entirely a layman looking at the oil bidness and at the puzzling Hubbert's Curve that has been deployed in the apparently broader peak oil "theory" that to my knowledge is itself wrapped up within oil oligopoly economics and global warming debates about whether mother earth is warming, cooling, or both, and about how much the sun is responsible and about how much human driven emissions are responsible. I just tried to do my civic duty here and tried to read up a bit (not enough of course) on at least one little teeny tile (the Hubbert Curve) of this vast mosaic of fear. Why do I call it a mosaic of fear? Because as nearly as I can tell, if folks claiming we are running out of oil imminently are right, well then all hell is gonna break loose politically and economically, and probably nothing we can do will prevent that imminent catastrophy. And if on the other Mitt, some cruel, ruthless oligarchs and their political, economic and epistemic enablers are pushing this forecast to scare us all into supporting some drastic new agenda, well, then that eventuality would be a real nail biter, too, wouldn't it?
For what its worth,I am frankly way too simple to solve any of this, or even to adequately unsnag all of Hubbert's Curve in order to think clearly about it...and with good sense.
My best advice to any board rats that care about this sort of thing is to read the late Michael Crichton's non-fiction book "Culture of Fear." Now I know he made a living telling stretchers, just like ol' Mark Twain once did, but, well, dang, he was a heap smarter than me and he did take enough time to write a book looking into many of the things we are supposed to be plumb ascared of. Poor old Michael, and poor old us. We could use him now.
jaybate 8 months, 3 weeks ago
BainDread,
Did you ever wonder why the Penn State scandal broke when it did?
Chris1955 8 months, 4 weeks ago
What a great way to spend the week before football season, talking about conference realignment.
I guess that Jaybate is campaigning for what I would categorize as super leagues. For example, a combination of the Big Ten and Big XII conferences, plus Notre Dame and 1 poached university (Rutgers?) could become the All-American League. You shift Nebraska and Iowa into what is now the Big XII, and add Notre Dame and Rutgers into what is now the Big Ten. You end up with two 12 team conferences with captive TV markets in 3 of the 4 largest population centers in the U.S.; New York, Chicago, and Houston.
You force the SEC and ACC into a similar arrangement, let's call it the Dixie League. The PAC 12 is left by itself. In football, you could create the equivalent of the Superbowl every year, where the champion of the All-American League plays the champion of the Dixie League.
It doesn't cover 3 time zones, but imagine the TV revenue clout it would create!
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I nominate Missouri to be part of the All Suck League!!
yates33333 8 months, 4 weeks ago
+1000
drgnslayr 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I don't believe there was enough thought into this realignment business before movement took place.
I recently watched a news documentary stating that within a very short time as many as 75% of the college diplomas will come from online schools. If this happens where will the $$$ and crowds come from for these super conferences?
I can see most of the smaller sports cut from programs because of the travel expenses.
Then big $$$ may go towards other sports; primarily, soccer and cricket because the student population may be mostly foreign students.
I would like to see some of you respond to my concerns.
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
drgnslayr...not to worry....the football game is secondary. until they ban tailgating with pregame food, drink and sex, football attendance will always remain high!! :)
JayDocMD 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I totally agree slayr. Although I would add competitive eating to soccer and cricket. With all the online students, and the associated sedentary lifestyle, I am willing to bet that within 10 years we will be able to fill stadiums to watch world class collegiate eating competitions. Due to the geographic advantage of being in the deep fried south, I do believe the SEC will remain the dominant conference. Although independents (such as The University of Pheonix) will be major players in this new (and might I add improved) college sports landscape.
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
HILARIOUS!!! [I do hope you were joking!!]
drgnslayr 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Here's another sport that could become huge while attract more students to go away to college -
http://larrybrownsports.com/category/olympics
Couldn't be the same Larry Brown... Watch the video, pretty impressive effort in the beer mile!
jhawkrulz 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Where do you get the 75% from?
I know universities like KU, UT, etc., have incorporated online learning and that many degrees can be completed from online, but when was the last time you hired a person from Pacific, Phoenix, or another online only university. Most universities still have a minimum required number of credit hours required that have to take place physically on the campus.
I would however agree certain degrees might be more meaningful from online and that there are some advantages to online courses. I also think parents like getting their kids out of the house and college is a great opportunity to do just that.
onegonzo 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Was that a Michael Moore documentary?
jhawk7782 8 months, 3 weeks ago
I'm still waiting for Phoenix University to field a football team. Hell, they built a stadium already.
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Just read the story regarding the plans for displaying "The Rules" as part of a new student center. Some other suggestions would include:
Projected on a 10'-0" x 20'-0" two-sided 24/7/365 LED billboard along Naismith.
Erect a bronze jumbo-sized replica statue of the rules and place in front of Allen.
Align flags along Naismith with one rule reproduced on each flaf and set in order.
Project a Holograph image of the rules over center court at every Kansas game.
Have the rules set in a bulletproof case protected by two guards dressed as Jayhawks
Place a framed copy of the rules over every urinal in Allen Fieldhouse
Maybe just have the rules set in a respectful simple case in a room with no other decorations or distractions....uummm....NNAAHH!!!!!
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
PS I volunteer to do the architectural design for free; - except for two lifetime passes to every basketball and football game for the rest of my life - a permanently reserved parking stall - a spot on both sport's benches - allowance to call one play per quarter of football - freedom to redesign the Jayhawk Mascot into something wonderfully terrifying, -- all the nachos and BBQ I can eat - a full ride scholarship to any Missouri resident freshman who writes the best essay describing Missouri as the darkest hellhole pit of despair in the universe and Kansas as Heaven on Earth!!
jgkojak 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I could see us going old Big 10 and having 11 teams - simply adding Notre Dame and stopping there -
it gets everyone (including ND) out of a championship game, its a manageable schedule to still play everyone twice in basketball and once in football
slyhawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Don't know much about Bowlsby, and am hoping for the best. But it might bear mentioning that the tremendous success Stanford has enjoyed in athletics (probably) has little to do with him, or any other AD. A very wealthy developer has, over several years, provided a massive multi-million dollar endowment to the athletics program. So revenue is never a problem there. Keeping the fat cat happy is the biggest part of that job.
HighEliteMajor 8 months, 4 weeks ago
12 is the number.
It's good negotiating. You don't want to appear that you're shopping or that you're needy. Further, you don't want to upset other conferences with the appearance that you may be tampering or waiting to pounce. The Big 12 was on the edge. The last thing that the Big 12 wants is another round of this stuff. 10 is good because you're still in existence, but moving forward, it's not.
12 is the number. A football championship game is gold. The more patient we are, the bigger fish we might land.
I like Louisville because of the hoops (but, it is way inferior to KU .. did you hear that, Mr. Barber?).
But adding Florida St. and Clemson, or a Notre Dame and BYU, casts a shadow far greater even than my carbon footprint.
I bet we'll have our 11th and 12th members decided by mid-year 2013.
OakvilleJHawk 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Grease is the word..is the word...is the word....
konkeyDong 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Today and tomorrow the under armor elite 24 camp is being held:
http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/boys-basketball/post/_/id/6161/elite-24-teams-coaches-announced
Good news: Two Jayhawk commits on the Lewis roster. Better news: The bigs on the Lewis roster are a who's who of top Kansas targets including Julius Randle, Jermaine Lawrence, Aaron Gordon, and Marcus Lee.
I hope HCBS put the word out to Frankamp and Greene that this is a recruiting opportunity that shouldn't be missed. Out of the group, I'd rate may wants as Lawrence, Gordon, Lee, Randle, though I'm sure most KU fans would list Randle first. All of them are top flight talent though.
Crusty 8 months, 4 weeks ago
I think this yoyo has sowed his lips onto the Texas AD Dobbs A$$ !! Get this conference back to 12 teams and take Texas behind the woodshed and tell them to either beg the Pac 12 to take them or become Independent in football.
JHWKDW 8 months, 4 weeks ago
Uh The Pac-12, in addition to the ACC, and the Big 1G told Texas to kick rocks! No one wants their drama, Texas and Deloss Dodds would screw their own mother over! We are stuck with them, unless they go independent and like an old kids saying I double dog dare them to go independent
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