The more I look at this Kansas-Providence game in the Sweet 16 on Friday night in Chicago, the more I see Clemson in 2018.
The Friars and Tigers are only somewhat similar in styles. Both rely on their guards and 3-point shooting. Both play a statistically slow tempo and neither team blocked a lot of shots.
But both are talented teams that, at the slightest sign of an off night by the Jayhawks, become a very real threat to knock off [the region’s top seed.][1]
The reason it’s hard to see that happening — just like it was in 2018 — is because of KU’s success in the Sweet 16 under head coach Bill Self.
Friday night will mark the 11th Sweet 16 appearance by the Jayhawks in 18 NCAA Tournaments under Self. Kansas is 8-2 in those previous 10 Sweet 16 battles. Self will be coaching his 14th Sweet 16 game as a head coach. He is 10-3 in his previous 13 trips.
Past success does not forecast future joy on the same stage, but there are plenty of reasons to like the Jayhawks’ chances because of what they have shown at this point in the NCAA Tournament in past seasons under Self.
KU’s eight Sweet 16 wins under Self have come by an average of 15 points per victory. That includes a 32-point win over Purdue in 2017, a 26-point win over UAB in Self’s first NCAA Tournament with the Jayhawks, a 20-point win over Richmond in 2011 and double-digit wins over Maryland (2016) and Villanova (2008), as well.
Five of the eight Sweet 16 wins under Self came against programs from power conferences.
What’s more, seven of the 10 Sweet 16 games previously played by Self-coached Kansas teams took place on a Friday, with the Jayhawks going 5-2 in those games.
No. 4 seeds are 1-2 in Sweet 16 games against Self and Kansas, and Providence, as a 4 seed at 27-5 overall, makes that the most common seed of KU’s Sweet 16 opponents under Self.
In addition to those four games, the Jayhawks are 2-0 against 5 seeds in the Sweet 16; 2-0 against 12 seeds; 1-0 against 9 seeds; 1-0 against 11 seeds and 0-1 against No. 2 seeds.
The high number of games between teams seeded on the 4/5 line makes sense given the fact that we’re talking about a KU program that has been a No. 1 seed nine times in 18 tournaments under Self.
None of these numbers from the past and their link to this season are much more than coincidences, though. They’re fun to look at and seem to point to a great deal of success in this round. But it’s hard to know if any of it means anything for this week.
I get why people say Self and his staff are tough to beat when you give them five or six days to prepare for an opponent. But it’s not as if the Providence staff isn’t over there working just as hard. More on that a little later.
The bottom line is this: The Jayhawks are going to have to play extremely well on Friday night to get by Providence. [The Friars are talented, confident, athletic and tough.][2] And they, like ninth-seeded Creighton before them, figure to enter this game with a free-and-easy vibe.
While that makes sense, and the pressure always seems to be on the higher seed, I’ve never really liked the concept of teams having nothing to lose in the NCAA Tournament.
Even 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s, which already has cemented itself as one of the all-time great underdog stories in NCAA Tournament history, has something to lose. It’s called their season.
None of these teams are ready to go home. And none of them, no matter how big or small, will ever be together in their current form again. For guys who spend so much time together — both during the year and during their careers — the arrival of the end of the road seems like an awful lot to lose.
So, yeah, Vegas will call Kansas the favorite, and the world outside of Lawrence always likes a good underdog. But the Jayhawks and Friars — along with 14 other teams still dancing — both have plenty to lose this week.
It’s that type of urgency and attention to detail that Self and his staff will bring to the week’s preparation. And their experience on this stage, and with these stakes, — compared to that of Friars’ coach Ed Cooley, who is coaching his first Sweet 16 game as a head coach and appearing in just his second all-time — could give Kansas a significant advantage in the days and hours leading up to tipoff.
After that, of course, it’s up to how the players execute on game night. But it’s hard not to look at Self’s past success in this round as at least some kind of edge for the top-seeded Jayhawks.
KU and Providence will tip off at 6:29 p.m. Friday from Chicago’s United Center on TBS.
[1]: http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2022/mar/21/wild-sunday-leaves-pair-of-double-digit-/
[2]: http://www2.kusports.com/news/2022/mar/20/no-4-seed-providence-next-top-seeded-kansas-ncaa-t/
