Using a couple of clues and general intuition, I’ve come up with my best guess for how tonight’s game will look for the 15th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks.
First off, like most people, I think KU’s losing skid ends tonight.
The combination of KU’s talent edge and home-court advantage paired with TCU coming off of a 16-day layoff and the way the game went the last time these two played makes Kansas the easy pick in this one.
That’s not to say the game will be easy for KU. Not much has been so far this season. But, like KenPom.com and the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, [I do think this will be a relatively easy, double-digit victory for the Jayhawks.][1]
Call it 81-67.
That was the easy part. The rest of my predictions for tonight were a little trickier and are solely about who plays what role for Kansas.
First, my guess for tonight’s starting five. Self said Wednesday that KU had “a core group of eight that we could basically go with from a starting standpoint.”
He didn’t name them, but it’s not hard to imagine who they are: Five of them (Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson and David McCormack) have started together for 13 of the 15 games for KU this season.
Redshirt freshman guard Dajuan Harris also has a start under his belt. Sophomore wing Tristan Enaruna has morphed into this team’s sixth man with freshman Bryce Thompson injured and out of the lineup. And senior forward Mitch Lightfoot, who they might as well start calling Ol’ Reliable, has been trending up of late more than at any point in his KU career.
Lightfoot’s energy, effort and toughness are what the Jayhawks want — and need — from all five positions on the floor at all points during all games.
So there’s the eight. When Bryce Thompson’s back from his broken finger — sometime in early- to mid-February is the best case scenario there — the rotation may go back to nine. But, at that point, it will grow only if it needs to.
“The bottom line is those eight need to play,” Self said Wednesday. “And we’ve got to find a way to distribute those minutes probably a little bit more evenly than what we have and maybe cut down some minutes on a couple of guys.”
Doing that is about more than changing up the starting lineup, which might happen tonight but is not a guarantee.
It’s also about keeping guys fresh, maximizing lineups that play well together and giving a couple of reserves a real chance to put their stamp on this team.
With that in mind, here’s my guess at tonight’s starting five:
**Dajuan Harris -** It just makes too much sense. He was so good at TCU the first time. His presence on the floor makes Garrett a better player. And his ability to get everybody involved helps KU’s offense run at peak efficiency.
**Ochai Agbaji -** He’s been KU’s best player to date and is as reliable as they come on both ends of the floor. Not only is he going to continue to start, his minutes are likely to remain right where they are, as well.
**Marcus Garrett -** Moving Garrett off the ball against Oklahoma looked like a brilliant move and he made it count by being more aggressive and knocking in a couple of shots. Garrett will always play when it matters most, but don’t be surprised if his workload is lightened just a little. Self has talked a lot in the past month about the role fatigue has played in Garrett having a mediocre season so far. Putting a true point guard on the floor and cutting back Garrett’s minutes just a tad is the best recipe for getting him back to the level he expects to play at.
**Christian Braun -** This spot came down to Braun or Wilson and I went with Braun, for now, because he has shown that his desire to play hard transcends whether his shot is falling. Beyond that, Self pointed out a couple of things on “Hawk Talk” about what players can do after missing shots to still affect the game that made me think he might’ve been talking about Wilson. Wilson’s been great in a lot of ways this season. And KU is going to need him to be great again to enjoy the kind of finish it hopes to have. And maybe a change of scenery will help bring him out of his recent funk. I think both guys will still play the same amount of minutes. They just might come at different times and with different people than they have so far. Remember, Garrett can always play the 4 on defense, too, so KU would not be losing too much by going away from Wilson to start.
**Mitch Lightfoot -** If there’s one guy on the roster who deserves this opportunity, it’s Lightfoot. He’s been so aggressive around the rim lately and is by far KU’s best shot blocker and rim protector. Because he’s still a little undersized to play as KU’s lone big man, Lightfoot’s not all of a sudden going to command 30+ mintues a night. But the team can benefit from having him out there at the start, which could help set the tone for the way they want to play. Starting Mitch puts McCormack back in a role where he has been most successful throughout his career thus far, and KU can easily still play both of them in the 15-20 minutes per game range, provided they’re not looking to go with five guards a little more often.
Full disclosure: I spent most of the week thinking that the starting five would not change. But after hearing Self talk on “Hawk Talk” on Monday night and again during his press conference on Wednesday, he just sounded like a guy who wants to see what a shakeup can do for this team.
By saying he’s got eight players who figure into the starting equation, Self is both telling the truth and protecting the heads of the players who might not start.
More importantly, he has made it clear — as he has every year — that being named a starter is not nearly as important as being a guy who the team can count on at game point.
The players who play those minutes are the ones who compete, play hard, sacrifice their body and execute at the highest level. And while most of the players mentioned above can do that on any given night, evening out the minutes for all eight of them so the top performers are a little more rested when it gets to that point seems like the best move right now.
Remember, KU was up three on Oklahoma State in the final two minutes and lost, cut a double-digit deficit to five before running out of gas against Baylor and was down just three with 3:40 to play in last Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma.
Maybe making sure the right guys are fresh for the stretch run is more important than worrying about who starts and who doesn’t.
Consider tonight Step 1 in making that a priority.
*With that in mind, here’s my guess for total minutes played by the core eight against TCU tonight:*
Ochai Agbaji: 32 (Season average 31.9 mpg)
Marcus Garrett: 30 (32.7)
Christian Braun: 30 (30.8)
Jalen Wilson – 28 (28.2)
Dajuan Harris – 25 (15.3)
David McCormack – 22 (20.4)
Mitch Lightfoot – 18 (9.9)
Tristan Enaruna – 15 (10.7)
[1]: http://www2.kusports.com/news/2021/jan/27/game-day-breakdown-no-15-kansas-basketball-vs-tcu/
