KU’s favored by how many?

By Matt Tait     Feb 22, 2017

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Kansas guard Devonte' Graham (4) gets fired up as the Jayhawks close in on the West Virginia lead during the second half, Monday, Feb. 13, 2017 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Out playing a round of golf this morning on an unseasonably warm February game day, one of the guys I was playing with asked me what the betting line for tonight’s KU-TCU game at Allen Fieldhouse was.

Always curious about those sorts of things, no matter which teams are playing, I logged on to my go-to site for lines and took a peek.

Expecting to see it somewhere around 7 or 8, I was a little surprised when I saw the number. KU opened as a 13-point favorite and, as of noon Wednesday, was still sitting right at 12.5 points.

I get it. That number makes sense. After all, TCU is 6-8 in the Big 12 and just 17-10 overall and this one’s at Allen Fieldhouse on a night when there should be an extra level of excitement in the gym than normal given KU’s chance to clinch a 13th consecutive Big 12 title and the fact that the No. 25 jersey worn by Brandon Rush will be added to the rafters at halftime.

Two big moments should have the Fieldhouse bumping.

But, still, 12.5 points? I’ve never been one to question the oddsmakers in Vegas. It seems they’re right about 99.9999999 percent of the time and know way more about these things than I do. But tonight’s number certainly was higher than I expected.

Trying to figure out just how unusual that number seemed, I looked back at KU’s 14 previous Big 12 games this season — including an 86-80 win at TCU to kick conference play off back in December — and found out that Kansas has played exactly one game in the Big 12 this season that would’ve covered that line.

That came on Jan. 7, when KU topped Texas Tech 85-68 at home and even that one was a 5-point game inside the final 10 minutes.

Other than that game, KU’s other margins of victory in conference play all have been 12 points or less, including a wild and ongoing stretch of six conference victories by 6 points or fewer.

That, of course, doesn’t mean the Jayhawks won’t win by 13 or more tonight. In fact, I could easily see it happening. But I also probably wouldn’t bet on it.

In KU’s six Big 12 victories at home this season, the Jayhawks have won by an average margin of 7.8 points. That includes a two-point win over K-State, a 7-point win over Oklahoma State and last week’s wild, 4-point, overtime win over West Virginia.

The Horned Frogs have played well on the road this season, particularly shooting the ball and on the glass. And Kansas has not been quite as dominant at home as in year’s past.

Those two factors, along with the expectation that this season’s general trend is likely to continue, have me thinking that the Frogs will stay within 13 points tonight, even while Kansas finishes on top to make it 13 consecutive Big 12 titles in a row.

Should be a fun night either way.

In case you missed it, be sure to check out this fun look back at the career of Brandon Rush while you wait for tonight’s tip-off…

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Written By Matt Tait

A native of Colorado, Matt moved to Lawrence in 1988 and has been in town ever since. He graduated from Lawrence High in 1996 and the University of Kansas in 2000 with a degree in Journalism. After covering KU sports for the University Daily Kansan and Rivals.com, Matt joined the World Company (and later Ogden Publications) in 2001 and has held several positions with the paper and KUsports.com in the past 20+ years. He became the Journal-World Sports Editor in 2018. Throughout his career, Matt has won several local and national awards from both the Associated Press Sports Editors and the Kansas Press Association. In 2021, he was named the Kansas Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. Matt lives in Lawrence with his wife, Allison, and two daughters, Kate and Molly. When he's not covering KU sports, he likes to spend his time playing basketball and golf, listening to and writing music and traveling the world with friends and family.