Recap: Without Josh Selby, KU’s offense still spectacular

By Staff     Feb 6, 2011

Kansas guard Josh Selby, right, congratulates Brady Morningstar in the second half Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 at the Devaney Center in Lincoln, Neb.

Note: Here is a listing of definitions for some terms used in this blog. Also, feel free to ask questions in the comments section below if something doesn’t make sense.

It sounds crazy, I know. But is there even a possibility that KU was a better offensive team on Saturday with Josh Selby not playing?

First off, this is absolutely not intended to be a knock on Selby. He’s shown unselfishness since joining the Jayhawks and a willingness to learn, especially defensively.
He could have come in and demanded minutes/shots, etc., but from all appearances, he’s been every bit the team player that KU coach Bill Self has wanted out of him.

Before his foot injury, Selby also played one of his best games as a Jayhawk against Texas Tech, which included a few times when he dove into the stands to try to steal passes.

Still, Selby’s offensive production so far hasn’t been what was expected. In fact, it might even be limiting the Jayhawks a bit.

Kansas guard Josh Selby runs over Colorado guard Cory Higgins on a drive in the first half on Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011 at the Coors Events Center in Boulder. Selby was called for a charge on the play.

The whispers are out there. It started with SI.com’s Luke Winn, who didn’t put KU into his Magic Eight college basketball teams this year partly because “they’ve regressed a bit since adding freshman Josh Selby to the mix, and haven’t been nearly as dominant as Texas has in the Big 12.”

The creator of this blog, former Journal-World staffer Asher Fusco, chipped in Saturday with this on his Twitter account (@AsherFusco): “Quick pass/fail hoops IQ test: Based on performance, not pro potential, who would you take: Josh Selby or Brady Morningstar?”

Here are the advanced statistics for both right now, courtesy of Statsheet.com:

Honestly, it’s hard to compare the two, because they have such different duties.

Morningstar is a role player, and he knows it. His job is to pass, defend and make open shots, and lately he’s done that well, as shown by his 1.20 points per possession used (and the fact he’s only ended 12.7 percent of KU’s possessions this year).

Selby, meanwhile, has been a scorer and shot-taker his whole life, so it’s not unexpected to see him with a high percentage of ended possessions (24.2 percent). That’s going to make it tougher on him to keep his offensive rating high, as he’s taking more shots and tougher shots and carrying a bigger offensive load.

His low points per possession used number, though (100.8, worst of the KU regulars), appears to show that his three-pointers made and high assist totals aren’t compensating for his high number of turnovers and poor two-point percentage (40.3 percent, which is actually lower than his three-point percentage).

This isn’t to say that Selby won’t improve. I think we saw a bit of that early against Texas Tech when, in transition, Selby pulled up for a short shot in the lane instead of putting his head down and driving to the rim into a pair of defenders. He missed the shot, but it appeared to be a better decision than he’d been previously making on fast breaks.

This whole discussion is brought up again because of KU’s offensive dominance against Nebraska in its 86-66 victory on Saturday.

The Jayhawks — without Selby — had arguably their best offensive performance of the year. KU’s 1.25 points per possession came against a top-10 adjusted defensive efficiency team in Nebraska — a team that had held KU to 0.98 PPP in the teams’ previous game.

Kansas guard Brady Morningstar shoots a three-pointer against Nebraska on Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 at the Devaney Center in Lincoln, Neb. Morningstar led all scorers with 19 points and six assists.

Before the game, when thinking about my terrible upset pick (crow doesn’t taste very good), I wondered whether Selby’s absence helped or hurt NU’s chances against KU. (Remember, in the last NU game, Selby was benched for the final 17 minutes after posting four turnovers in his 13 minutes.)

I’m not sure the answer is as easy as it seems.

Am I saying that KU would be better without Selby? Absolutely not. The Jayhawks need the depth in their backcourt, and the freshman also is a gifted scorer who has made improvements defensively.

But with Tyrel Reed and Morningstar playing so well lately, and Marcus and Markieff Morris and Thomas Robinson scoring so well, KU probably doesn’t need Selby to try to be a hero offensively. A role player like Morningstar might be a better fit at times for KU’s offense.

A few more made twos and a few fewer turnovers from Selby, and we’re probably not having this conversation.

Thomas Robinson, (0) dunks against the Cornhuskers Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 at the Devaney Center in Lincoln, Neb.

Bottom line: Selby can still play better. If he does, the Jayhawks will play better.

Until then, it will be interesting to see how Self handles Selby after the injury. The coach stuck with Morningstar through an early-season slump, and it’s paying dividends now.

I wouldn’t expect Self to give up on his prized freshman any time soon.

**M.O.J. (Most Outstanding Jayhawk)**

Maybe the easiest call of the year. Congratulations Brady Morningstar.

Kansas guard Brady Morningstar drives the baseline around Nebraska's Lance Jeter during the second half Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 at the Devaney Center in Lincoln, Neb.

This is efficiency, folks: Morningstar posted 2.70 points per possession used while ending 10.9 percent of KU’s possessions (a low number, but who produces 2.7 points per possession?). KU scored at least one point on 82.2 percent of the possessions he used.

Morningstar went 5-for-7 from three-point range while assisting on 33.1 percent of KU’s made field goals while he was in. He also had no turnovers.

The senior guard is now 11-for-18 from three-point range (61.1 percent) in his last four games.

**Room for Improvement**

KU’s offensive production was even more amazing considering just how poor its offensive rebounding was.

Kansas players Markieff Morris (21) and Brady Morningstar (12) celebrate a three-pointer by Morris during the second half Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 at the Devaney Center in Lincoln, Neb. Morningstar led all KU scorers with 19 points, followed by Markieff with 17.

The Jayhawks came away with just 14.8 percent of the available offensive rebounds — their lowest offensive rebounding percentage in the last 15 years.

It actually gets uglier when you break it down. KU had just four offensive rebounds, and two of them were team rebounds, meaning Nebraska lost the ball out of bounds to give it back to KU.

So, in a game with a healthy number of possessions (69), KU’s players only managed to put their hands on two offensive boards: one by Marcus Morris and one by Tyshawn Taylor.

This isn’t going to be a big deal when KU posts an eFG% of 70.0, but the Jayhawks have shown a tendency to completely ignore the offensive glass in a few games this year. The UMKC game earlier this season (OR% of 18.5 percent) was KU’s previous low in offensive rebounding percentage for a game in the last 15 years.

This hasn’t bitten KU yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Kansas guard Mario Little collides with Nebraska's Ray Gallegos Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 at the Devaney Center in Lincoln, Neb.

**Tough-Luck Line**

Tyshawn Taylor was one of the only Jayhawk regulars who wasn’t “on” offensively against the Huskers.

Taylor posted just 0.94 points per possession used, while ending the highest percentage of possessions on the team (23.6 percent). When one of your least efficient players during a game uses the highest number of possessions, that’s normally not going to be a good combination. KU scored at least one point on just 28.6 percent of Taylor’s ended possessions.

For me, Taylor almost gets judged like basketball officials do: If you don’t notice him, he has probably played a good game.

Unfortunately for Taylor, it was hard to not notice him offensively on Saturday. He made just 2 of 8 shots with three turnovers to go with five assists.

Kansas forward Marcus Morris, left, shakes hands with Tyshawn Taylor, right, and points to teammate Brady Morningstar after Morris was fouled during the second half Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 at the Devaney Center in Lincoln, Neb.

Like Selby, Taylor might benefit the offense by deferring a bit more and letting KU’s efficient big men do more of the heavy lifting. Taylor’s points per possession used this season (103.6) is second-lowest of players in the KU rotation, just ahead of Selby.

**Bottom Line**

Afterwards, Bill Self said his team’s offense was great, and NU coach Doc Sadler said KU’s first half “was about as good an offensive performance that I’ve coached against.”

The advanced statistics support the coaches.

KU’s eFG% of 70.0 was its best mark of the season and the seventh-best shooting night for the Jayhawks under Self. KU also posted an impressive free-throw rate (free throw attempts/field goal attempts) of 73.3, the highest since the Cornell game last season.

Marcus Morris salutes the crowd after the Jayhawks defeated the Cornhuskers on Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011.

Without Selby and without offensive rebounding a lick, KU posted 1.25 points per possession against a Nebraska defense that hadn’t given up more than 1.09 PPP all year.

After going through a bit of an offensive slump, the Jayhawks have now posted at least 1.23 PPP in each of their last four games.

With that recent surge, KU has to be considered one of the three hottest teams in the country right now, along with Ohio State and Texas.

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