As expected, the Kansas football team is back to being a double-digit underdog.
KU’s brief moment as a favorite, in which the team was favored by 6.5 points in the season opener, ended with a 38-23 home loss to Coastal Carolina in Week 1. Even if KU had won that game, however, it likely would have been a double-digit underdog this week and perhaps throughout its entire nine-game slate in Big 12 action.
Following a bye week, Kansas opened as a 16.5-point underdog in its road tilt with Baylor in the league opener. The Bears, who are coming off an 11-3 campaign that featured a loss in the Big 12 championship game, have yet to play this season and the [status of Saturday’s game remains unknown][1].
If the game does happen, kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. It would be the debut for Dave Aranda, who became Baylor’s 28th head coach in program history in January after serving as defensive coordinator for LSU the previous four seasons.
Despite the lofty line with a new coach, the early numbers suggest that the Bears might actually have value at this current number [via FanDuel’s Sportsbook][2]. [Action Network’s model][3], which had Coastal as a favorite against Kansas even when the sportsbooks didn’t, believes Baylor should be favored by 22 points in this matchup.
According to the [Football Power Index on ESPN][4], the Jayhawks have just an 8% chance of victory in their Big 12 opener. For comparison, FPI gave KU an 11.1% chance of a win against Baylor before the start of the 2020 season.
Bill Connelly’s [latest SP+ rankings][5], which is essentially a tempo-adjusted and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, has Kansas ranked 88th out of 91 teams. Baylor, meanwhile, comes in at 23rd overall in the latest update.
The over/under for this game is currently set at 59.5. Like when the KU/CCU [total was set at 55.5][6], the over would probably be my favorite bet for this game.
**Rest of Big 12 odds:** — All lines via FanDuel’s Sportsbook
Kansas State (+28.5) at Oklahoma — Over/under 59.5 points
Iowa State (-4.5) at TCU — Over/under 47.5 points
Texas (-16.5) at Texas Tech — Over/under 68.5 points
West Virginia (+8.5) at Oklahoma State — Over/under 55.5 points
**KU’s updated FPI numbers:**
Game 2: at Baylor — 8% chance of victory (Was 11.1% before Week 1)
Game 3: vs. Oklahoma State — 10% chance of victory (Was 9.3%)
Game 4: at West Virginia — 9.8% chance of victory (Was 16.2%)
Game 5: at Kansas State — 12.3% chance of victory (Was 10.8%)
Game 6: vs. Iowa State — 17.8% chance of victory (Was 14.1%)
Game 7: at Oklahoma — 3.1% chance of victory (Was 3.5%)
Game 8: vs. Texas — 3.2% chance of victory (Was 5.4%)
Game 9: vs. TCU — 7.2% chance of victory (Was 10%)
Game 10: at Texas Tech — 21.6% chance of victory (Was 13.9%)
[1]: http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2020/sep/20/status-of-saturdays-ku-baylor-game-still/
[2]: https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/sports/navigation/11070.3/11071.3
[3]: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/collin-wilson-2020-college-football-week-4-projected-odds-spreads
[4]: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/2305/kansas-jayhawks
[5]: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29928294/college-football-sp+-rankings-week-3-big-ten-led-no-1-ohio-state-back
[6]: http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/jacksons_journal/2020/sep/12/final-thoughts-for-kus-season-opener-aga/
