Year 2 of the Les Miles era is set to begin this weekend when Kansas hosts Coastal Carolina for a rematch of KU’s most forgettable performance from the 2019 campaign. The Jayhawks, who suffered a 12-7 defeat at home to the Chanticleers last season, are favored in the 2020 season opener by 6.5 points as of Tuesday morning.
The [line via FanDuel’s Sportsbook][1] has continued to move in KU’s favor after the team opened as a four-point favorite, but it isn’t crazy to wonder if the wrong squad is favored in a game that will kick off at 9 p.m. and be televised nationally on FS1. The over/under is currently set at 56.5 points for a contest that won’t have fans in attendance.
It is a new season, and Kansas could avenge last year’s stinker that ended with a memorable locker room celebration by Coastal Carolina. Vegas tabbing the Jayhawks as a favorite should still be somewhat surprising, though, and it’s not just because of last year’s result at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.
Coastal Carolina is bringing back 75% of its production from a season ago, a number that ranks 19th in the country in [total returning production][2]. The Chanticleers have 88% of their offensive production coming back, a unit that ranked fifth in the country last year during a 5-7 campaign.
Running back CJ Marable, who is 5-foot-10 and 200 pounds, is one of the many familiar faces back for this year’s rematch with KU. Marable accumulated 1,085 rushing yards and 11 scores on 204 attempts as a junior last year, which included a 148-yard performance against Kansas. Quarterbacks Fred Payton and Bryce Carpenter, who both saw time under center last season, are also back. The Chants even bring back their top-three receiving threats and an offensive line unit that has more than a 100 career starts.
Kansas, meanwhile, is not nearly as experienced ahead of the 2020 opener. The Jayhawks have just 42% of their returning production coming back, which ranks 126th out of 130 teams. KU only has 41% of its offense returning, including the all-important starting quarterback position that [remains up in the air][3] just a few days away from kickoff.
Kansas is a 6-point favorite over Coastal Carolina. Last year KU lost 12-7 to Coastal as a 7-point favorite at home. According to @ESPN_BillC, KU is 126th in returning production, Coastal ranks in Top 20, including almost all of its offensive production. Another upset on tap?
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 7, 2020
Now, returning experience doesn’t necessarily equate to wins and losses. However, in a year where the offseason featured a number of obstacles because of the pandemic, perhaps continuity should carry more weight when making a betting line for the opening weekend.
There is an argument to be made that Kansas should be the underdog. [ESPN’s Football Power Index][4] gives Kansas a 46.3% chance of victory against Coastal Carolina. [Action Network’s model][5] says that the Chanticleers should actually be favored by 3.5 points on the road.
None of that is to say KU has no chance of winning, of course. There will be plenty of content posted this week about how the Jayhawks could get their revenge this weekend. I’m not even sure who I’m picking to win just yet.
But, given all the unknown to go along with last year’s result in this matchup, I’m just surprised that the betting line is giving Kansas the benefit of the doubt.
**Rest of Available Big 12 odds**
**Kansas State vs. Arkansas State**
Spread: Kansas State -10.5
Total: O/U 54.5 points
FPI: 89.9% chance of KSU win
**Iowa State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette**
Spread: Iowa State -10.5
Total: O/U 55.5 points
FPI: 79.1% chance of ISU win
**Baylor vs. Louisiana Tech**
Spread: Baylor -18.5
Total: O/U 56.5 points
FPI: 85.3% chance of BU win
**Texas Tech vs. Houston Baptist**
Spread: Texas Tech -37.5
FPI: 99.3% chance of TTU win
[1]: https://pa.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sports/navigation/11070.3/11071.3
[2]: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28649423/college-football-teams-most-returning-production-2020
[3]: http://www2.kusports.com/news/2020/sep/07/les-miles-ku-could-use-2-qbs-instead-picking-1-sta/
[4]: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/2305
[5]: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/wilson-college-football-projected-odds-lines-spreads-week-2-2020
