Betting line continues to move down, KU is now a 16-point underdog at TCU

By Staff     Sep 23, 2019

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Kansas wide receiver Kwamie Lassiter II (8) heads for the end zone for a touchdown during the second quarter on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2019 at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.

It didn’t take long for the line to move.

Kansas opened as a 20-point underdog for its Week 5 matchup with TCU, though the line moved within an hour. As of Monday afternoon, the Jayhawks are now a 16-point underdog via FanDuel’s Sportsbook for their first Big 12 road game of the season.

Considering the recent history of the series, even the current line might be surprising. KU won last year’s meeting with TCU by a 27-26 margin. The Horned Frogs have won all six other meetings with the Jayhawks since joining the Big 12.

But, other than a 43-point road loss in 2017, Kansas has typically fared well in this matchup. TCU won by a combined 11 points in the three meetings between 2014-2016.

Entering this week’s conference clash, TCU is 2-1 after a loss to SMU in the final game of nonconference play. Kansas, meanwhile, is 2-2 after a 29-24 loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 opener.

True freshman quarterback Max Duggan made his debut this past weekend, completing 16 of 36 passes for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Yet Duggan completed just one pass in the first half, and appears to have accuracy issues early on.

The Jayhawks have had just two turnovers forced this season, both of which came against Indiana State. There is an element of luck to turnovers, of course. However, given the fact KU led the Big 12 in turnovers gained last season with 27, I’d expect that the visitors should be able to get a takeaway or two this weekend.

And that might be the difference in covering. It is early in the week, but I’m tempted to take the points in this one. With that, let’s take a look at the early betting lines for the rest of the Big 12 conference in Week 5:

**Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-27)**

This line has moved in Oklahoma’s favor since opening at 24.5 points Sunday afternoon. Given the fact that the Red Raiders are without their starting quarterback, I’m not eager to jump on this line at any number. The Sooners have won seven in a row in this series, three of which were by at least 21 points.

I’m not putting anything past Oklahoma’s offense, so this one could be ugly.

**Iowa State (-2.5) at Baylor**

In my opinion, it is tough to feel supremely confident about either side in this one. ESPN’s FPI gives the Cyclones a 51.5% chance of winning their Big 12 opener, though those projections were just 31% in Week 4. The only thing that changed since then is that Iowa State pummeled Louisiana-Monroe to improve to 2-1 on the year.

Baylor, meanwhile, recorded wins over Stephen F. Austin, UTSA and Rice during nonconference play. This week’s matchup will be more telling about where these two teams are at in the Big 12.

**Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-4)**

This line was down to 3.5 points on FanDuel’s Sportsbook Sunday night after Oklahoma State opened up as 7-point favorites. If this line is going to stay this low, I’d recommend hammering the Cowboys.

Kansas State’s signature win during nonconference play was a 31-24 road victory over Mississippi State. Don’t get me wrong, that is impressive. But that game was really even, and I feel like it was decided on some takeaways and special teams plays. I just feel like the perception about the Wildcats would be different if those plays don’t get their way.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is coming off a 36-30 road loss to Texas. The Cowboys are 12th in the nation in scoring offense with an average of 44.5 points per game, and rank 11th in the country with 533.8 yards per contest. It will be interesting to see if Kansas State can contain that type of offensive attack this week.

I would have thought that this line would have stayed around seven points, or moved up to eight if there was any movement. So the fact that it has shifted this far in the other direction makes me concerned about my assessment of these two teams.

Still, I’m taking OSU this week, and I’m prepared to reevaluate if Kansas State picks up another road win.

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53909Betting line continues to move down, KU is now a 16-point underdog at TCU