No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks (22-5 overall, 10-4 Big 12) at No. 22 TCU Horned Frogs (18-9 overall, 7-7 Big 12)
Time: 8 p.m., Monday, Feb. 20, 2023
Location: Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN | Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network via Learfield
1. The Dajuan Harris Jr. Offensive Experience
Much was made after KU’s wild win over Baylor on Saturday about the role Harris played in erasing a 13-point halftime deficit and winning by 16. Harris was lights out on both ends in that one, and his offensive production has become one of the biggest keys for this KU team.
He knows that. His teammates know that. And everyone around him continues to tell him to shoot the ball, be aggressive and look to score.
When he does that, KU becomes a much better team and the Jayhawks are as tough an out as anybody out there. When he doesn’t, it really is like Kansas is playing four on five while the offense becomes stagnant and others tend to stand around an lose their aggressive edge, as well.
Few games this season illustrated that better than KU’s first clash with TCU, when Harris attempted just four shots all game and did not score despite playing more than 38 minutes.
Harris did have eight assists and two steals, but those were somewhat offset by his three turnovers.
He’s too good and too important to this offense to turn in any more games like that.
2. Transition awareness
Kansas coach Bill Self said ahead of the last matchup with the Frogs that TCU had “by far” the most dangerous transition team in the Big 12.
Then, Jamie Dixon’s team went out and made Self look smart by outscoring Kansas 19-4 in fastbreak points. It wasn’t just that margin that made TCU’s transition points so important in that one. It was the fact that, when they got most of their transition points coincided with the stretch when they blew the game wide open.
TCU’s lineup is long, fast, athletic and aggressive. And it can be a load to stop when it gets a full head of steam. That’s why you can’t give it to them.
Running with them and getting back in time to negate their advantages on the break is a bit of a losing battle. So the victory has to come before that, with disciplined possessions, good shots, a high shooting percentage and very few live-ball turnovers.
The teams that have been able to handle TCU have fared well in all of those areas, and Kansas will have to do so in this one if it hopes to walk out of Fort Worth with a win.
The biggest of the bunch, though, has to be the live-ball turnovers. KU turned it over 17 times in the loss in January — two more than TCU — and the Horned Frogs score 20 points off of those turnovers.
3. Bench production a must
Here’s the wildest thing about TCU’s 23-point beatdown of the Jayhawks in Lawrence earlier this season: It wasn’t even the TCU starters who did the most damage.
While guys like Mike Miles Jr., Damion Baugh and Emmanuel Miller are often the most feared — and most productive — players in TCU’s offensive attack, it was a pair of reserves who really hurt Kansas.
Shahada Wells led the Horned Frogs with 18 points, knocking in 7 of 8 shot attempts and 3 of 4 from behind the 3-point line.
He teamed with Xavier Cork (9), JaKobe Coles (9) and Rondel Walker (4) to outscore the Kansas bench 39-8.
Kansas doesn’t have to win the battle of the benches in the rematch to come out on top, but if that number is anywhere close to what it was at Allen Fieldhouse, KU probably won’t have much of a chance.
Joe Yesufu, Ernest Udeh, Zuby Ejiofor and even Bobby Pettiford have all shown signs of life, offensively, since that first matchup, when Jalen Wilson went for 30 points in the Kansas loss. And the Jayhawks could very well need them to do so in this one, or at least to be good enough to prevent the TCU bench from going off.
The fact KU starters Harris and Kevin McCullar Jr., are both still battling ankle injuries makes it all the more important for the Jayhawks’ bench to be a factor in this game. Whether they play big minutes or just spot duty, they have to show they can compete and are able to either grow the lead or maintain it, should they hit the floor with Kansas in front.
That challenge, and its importance, is as big for the Jayhawks’ long-range goals as it is their chances of winning this particular game.
KU big man Ernest Udeh Jr. vs. TCU’s Eddie Lampkin
Lampkin’s super talented and even at less than 100% can be a problem.
I mean, the man played on basically one leg in the second half of the win in Lawrence and was still able to grab one-armed rebounds and find a way to score.
Now much healthier than that — though, seemingly still not 100% — Lampkin poses a real concern for Kansas. And that’s where Udeh comes in. The KU freshman is still not quite experienced enough to be counted on to win a matchup like this one-on-one, but he won’t have to.
He will have to be a factor, though. Especially if KJ Adams gets into any kind of foul trouble. And there’s at least some reason to believe Udeh is more ready today than he was when these two met the first time.
The TCU guards and wings are crazy talented, athletic and can score in bunches. But so could the Baylor backcourt and the Jayhawks found a way to shut them down in the second half on Saturday. The Bears did not have a big man to provide a release valve for the intense Kansas defense on the perimeter and it cost them.
TCU has that in Lampkin (6-11, 263) and while he might not be the focal point of the Kansas scouting report he has to be a big part of the game plan and someone the Jayhawks are aware of on every possession when TCU has the ball.
Wilson said it best last week, when he explained how the rest of the regular season is basically a series of one-game tournaments. So, don’t expect the Jayhawks to be anything other than up for this game.
For one, it’s a must-win in terms of keeping pace in the Big 12 title race. For two, — and Wilson pointed this out after the Jayhawks’ wild, comeback win over Baylor on Saturday — Kansas has at least a little bit of revenge on its mind for the beatdown the Frogs delivered in Lawrence.
The Jayhawks have to play well to win on pretty much any night in this conference. And they’ve seen what happens when they do and when they don’t.
But with the Baylor win fresh in their minds, and the idea that they actually can play at that level against an elite team, we could be looking at a Kansas squad that has climbed another rung in the confidence department.
It’ll all come down to the start, because that, on the road far more than at Allen Fieldhouse, often has been the biggest indicator of whether KU wins or loses in conference play this season.
KU leads the all-time series with TCU 24-4, but the two have split the last four meetings and the Frogs have shown in recent years that they’re not as overwhelmed, overmatched and intimidated by the Jayhawks as they may have been in the past.
The Jayhawks actually enter this one as underdogs in the eyes of the oddsmakers, which is not all that surprising given what happened in the first meeting in Lawrence and how TCU may be at full strength again or as close to it as they’ve been in a while.
Draft Kings listed TCU as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night.
It’s worth noting, however, that KenPom has KU has a one-point favorite with a 52% win probability.
Kansas
G – Dajuan Harris Jr., 6-1, 175, Jr.
G – Kevin McCullar Jr., 6-6, 210, Sr.
G – Gradey Dick, 6-8, 205, Fr.
F – Jalen Wilson, 6-8, 225, Jr.
F – KJ Adams, 6-7, 225, Soph.
TCU
G – Mike Miles Jr., 6-2, 195, Jr.
G – Damion Baugh, 6-4, 194, Sr.
F – Emmanuel Miller, 6-7, 217, Sr.
F – Chuck O’Bannon Jr., 6-6, 215, Sr.
C – Eddie Lampkin Jr., 6-11, 263, Soph.
