One of Kansas head coach Lance Leipold’s defining questions to consider in surveying his season-opening foe, Missouri State, was “How much is carry-over, and what’s new flavor?”
Missouri State lost head coach Bobby Petrino, but retained Petrino’s son Nick as offensive coordinator and son-in-law/defensive coordinator Ryan Beard as head coach. So it’s hard to say exactly where the Bears fall, philosophically, on a continuum from “carry-over” to “new flavor.”
KU, though, remains firmly at the “carry-over” end, and the Jayhawks will be all the better for it.
They broke new ground in 2022 with a 6-7 record and their first bowl appearance in 15 years, and for the first time since 2004 have returned the same head coach and all 10 position coaches from the prior season. Plus practically all the relevant players who helped them take that step forward: preseason Big 12 Conference Offensive Player of the Year Jalon Daniels, his do-everything backup Jason Bean, running back Devin Neal, a whopping nine productive receivers and tight ends, four starters on the offensive line, cornerback Cobee Bryant, safety Kenny Logan Jr. and plenty more.
This ambitious veteran team begins a pivotal campaign, one that will determine whether KU stays at its high-water mark or slumps back down to the pre-2022 status quo, with a Football Championship Subdivision opponent. FCS games were once treacherous for the Jayhawks, who lost to Nicholls five years ago. Last year’s opener against Tennessee Tech, though, was a 56-10 rout.
Leipold pointed to the strength of the Missouri Valley Conference, in which Missouri State is projected to finish eighth of 12 teams, as a reason not to underestimate the Bears.
“Year in and year out, that conference seems to get a win against an FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) opponent, so they have our respect,” Leipold said. “They’ve been able to add transfers, they’ve been a program that I think has always been able to attract transfers, even before the portal was active, with the immediate eligibility at the FCS level, and we know that they’ve got some weapons on both sides of the ball. They’ve got good speed, and really they got a nice mixture in the backfield.”
Not to mention that one year ago, Missouri State took a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against Arkansas, only to fall short late. That Arkansas team later dealt KU a heartbreaking 55-53 loss in the Liberty Bowl, part of what gives the Jayhawks the motivation to get back to the postseason this year for a rare second straight appearance.
Kansas Jayhawks (6-7, 3-6 Big 12 in 2022) vs. Missouri State Bears (5-6, 3-5 MVC in 2022)
• David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, 7 p.m.
• Broadcast: ESPN+ (Big 12 Now)
• Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network (in Lawrence, KLWN AM 1320 / K269GB FM 101.7 / KKSW FM 105.9)
• Betting line: To be announced
• Series history: KU leads 2-0
What to watch for
1. Special teams starters: All indications have been that Taiwo Onatolu’s unit will trot out Texas State transfer (and Lou Groza Award watchlist selection) Seth Keller at kicker and Australian freshman Damon Greaves at punter, though KU’s initial depth chart put Owen Piepergerdes even with Keller and Grayden Addison even with Greaves. Regardless of the selection, the Jayhawks will have a new primary specialist at each spot; Jacob Borcila transferred to Vanderbilt and Reis Vernon will be a reserve at punter.
2. Daniels’ duration: The lengthy and information-deficient saga of Daniels’ training-camp back tightness will likely come to a merciful end if he plays significant time Friday. The strong implication, though not a guarantee, from Leipold on Monday was that Daniels would start Friday, because he practiced fully Monday and is first on the week’s depth chart. If KU jumps out to a sizable lead early, look for the Jayhawks to mix in reps for Bean, who received plaudits from coaches in camp for his growth on and off the field.
3. Multiplicity: The consistent refrain throughout fall camp was that offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has continued to fold new looks and new wrinkles — which he has compared to new LEGO pieces stacked atop each other — into his offense, given the high level of returning experience, in what has variously been referred to as “offensive volume” and “multiplicity.” Kotelnicki said Tuesday that the playbook is fully open and he doesn’t worry about “showing things” against Missouri State.
Spotlight on…
Marvin Grant: The redshirt junior safety arrived from Purdue last year and saw significant snaps, racking up 52 tackles and a forced fumble in 2022, but remained the third option at his two-man position behind Logan and O.J. Burroughs. However, Grant was listed alongside Burroughs as a co-starter on KU’s first depth chart of the season Monday, which could simply point to the significant role that the third safety plays in the Jayhawks’ defense, but also might indicate he’s gained some ground on his teammate — particularly impressive given his limited reps in the spring due to a groin injury. Defensive coordinator Brian Borland said this week that Grant has brought a newfound seriousness to his work and “the lightbulb’s gone on in certain ways for him.” Look for him to reap the rewards in the form of increased playing time against Missouri State’s new-look passing offense.
Inside the numbers
209.2: The number of rushing yards per game KU allowed in 2022, which was a bottom-10 performance in the nation. The Jayhawks revamped their defensive line more than any other position group (with the possible exception of special teams), although three returners will start — Hayden Hatcher, either Tommy Dunn Jr. or D.J. Withers and Jereme Robinson — with Colorado State transfer Devin Phillips expected to shine as a newcomer at tackle.
85: KU’s percentage of returning production from last season, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings. That number is highest in the country, though SP+ doesn’t seem to value it too much, placing KU at No. 62 of 133 FBS teams in its overall power rankings.
13: The number of combined career passes thrown at the Division I level by Missouri State quarterbacks Jacob Clark and Jordan Pachot, who will both play Friday, Beard has said.
Prediction
KU wins 41-17. Don’t be surprised to see the Jayhawks get off to another slow start as they often did last season, possibly with Missouri State’s Jacardia Wright or one of his backfield mates breaking off a couple of big runs for the Bears — but it won’t last. The sheer talent KU possesses on offense will overwhelm the Bears by halftime and the Jayhawks will be able to rotate in some younger players as the game draws on.
Chance Parker/Journal-World photo
