No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-6) vs. No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (29-9)
Time: 8:20 p.m., Monday, April 4, 2022
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: TBS | Radio: IMG Jayhawk Radio Network
1. Empty the tank
It’s a given that the Jayhawks are going to play hard in this one. North Carolina is going to play hard in this one, as well.
You don’t reach the national championship game and then hope to cruise while playing in it. Beyond that, you don’t play in a national title game every day, so adrenaline will be firing higher than ever for players on both sides.
The best way to manage that is by deciding early that you’re going to leave everything you’ve got on the floor in what will be the final game of the college basketball season.
Both programs are known for getting that type of effort out of their players on a regular basis. But this is different. The Jayhawks know it, too. And many of them talked on Sunday about playing with a leave-it-all-out-there mentality from the jump on Monday night.
Ever since losing at TCU in early March, the Jayhawks have basically been doing that. So, it’s not like they’ll have to go far to move the needle from engaged to full throttle. But doing so, particularly early, could go a long way toward helping Kansas build another early lead and play through whatever nerves might be present.
All signs point to Kansas fully understanding what this means.
Leading scorer Ochai Agbaji has been more cut throat this week than at any point in his career. Christian Braun and Remy Martin are known for playing with extreme passion and energy and David McCormack, Mitch Lightfoot and Jalen Wilson are both more than happy to play the type of physical game that winning on Monday night might require.
“No what-ifs, no could’ve beens, none of that,” Lightfoot said on Sunday. “For a bunch of these guys, this is going to be our last time on a college basketball court, so there’s just no what-ifs. It’s something we’ve been preaching the whole tournament. We want to make sure we go out there and play and put our heart down.”
2. Gang rebound
The Jayahwks have been at their best this season when they have entered games knowing that they had to get all five guys to the glass and use their toughness at all five positions to win the rebounding war.
This is one of those games.
And it starts with UNC big man Armando Bacot, who grabbed 21 rebounds in Carolina’s Final Four win over Duke on Saturday night.
The 6-foot-10, 240-pound junior from Richmond, Virginia, is averaging 13.1 rebounds per game on the season, including 4.1 per game on the offensive end.
Although their measurements are similar, he plays bigger than KU’s David McCormack, using his length to keep misses alive and his strength to get whatever position he desires.
It will be interesting to see how an ankle injury he suffered against Duke plays into his effectiveness against Kansas. But the Jayhawks should prepare like he’s 100% and attack the glass like the Tar Heels have three of him.
That certainly sounds like the plan.
“They’ve got two physical guys in the paint,” KU forward Jalen Wilson said of Bacot and Brady Manek. “Armando Bacot’s one of the best rebounders in the country, so we’re going to box him out every single play and always get a body on him.
Led by Bacot, the Tar Heels rank among the top teams in the country in offensive rebounding percentage on both ends of the floor. On offense, their ability to get back 31.3% of their misses ranks 74th nationally, according to KenPom.com. On defense, Bacot’s presence limits opponents to a 21.6% offensive rebounding clip, which puts UNC as the second-best defensive rebounding team in the country.
The Jayhawks rank 36th nationally in going to the offensive glass (at 33.2%) but just 163rd (27.8%) in preventing opponents from getting second chances.
Jalen Wilson said Sunday that he would do everything in his power to grab every rebound possible. This isn’t just tough-guy talk either. During this tournament, Wilson is averaging 10.8 rebounds per game and riding a streak of four consecutive games with double-digit rebounds.
KU big men McCormack and Lightfoot will have plenty to say about which team wins the rebounding battle. So will KU’s guards, all of whom are capable of grabbing anywhere between four and seven rebounds on any given night.
But Wilson is the Jayhawks’ most explosive rebounder and he makes the most sense as the answer to the question that seeks to identify which Jayhawk can make life most difficult for Bacot on the glass.
“He does a great job of using his body to get position on rebounds,” Lightfoot said Sunday. “He’s going to wedge you under and make sure he gets a piece of the pie on almost every rebound. We’ve got to make sure the big guys (understand that) if you don’t have an opportunity to block a shot, then you commit yourself to making sure he doesn’t get a rebound. But that’s easier said than done because he’s such a great rebounder.”
3. Play fast and confident
It’s been a strength all season, so there’s no reason to think it should stray far from KU’s thoughts in this one. That becomes even more true when you listen to what North Carolina coach Hubert Davis said about the Jayhawks’ transition offense on Sunday.
“On film, they appear to be the fastest transition team that I’ve seen this year,” Davis said of top-seeded Kansas. “Whether it’s on made or missed baskets, they sprint to offense.”
North Carolina has what Davis calls “an end game” when it comes to its transition defense — no layups or dunks, no pitch-ahead 3s and make opponents make two passes so the defense can get set.
“We’re going to have to do that (Monday) night,” he said.
The Jayhawks have made a living off of transition opportunities this season, with guards who like to race the ball up the floor, unselfish lineups that have been conditioned to pitch the ball ahead to teammates trying to outrun the defense and enough versatility to have players who rip down rebounds immediately start the break by pushing the ball up the floor immediately off of a miss.
The Jayhawks did not record a single fastbreak point against Villanova on Saturday night, but they have nearly doubled up their opponents on points off the break (29-17) in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Even when they don’t score, though, KU’s unrelenting desire to sprint the ball up the floor forces defenses to retreat instead of attack and helps the Jayhawks find creases to drive, cut and pass into.
North Carolina is not a deep team. The Tar Heels basically play just five guys. In Saturday’s win over Duke, UNC gave just 13 minutes to its bench and it likely would have been closer to half of that number if Bacot had not had to come off the floor for a bit because of the ankle injury.
Pushing the pace — especially on this type of stage — can create problems for UNC’s depth, either bringing fatigue into the equation or forcing quick fouls as the Jayhawks look to attack in transition.
If UNC gets in any kind of serious foul trouble in this one, it’s hard to see them hanging with the Jayhawks. The Tar Heels just do not use their bench. And while Kansas has shortened its bench a ton this postseason, as well, the Jayhawks have a handful of players who at least are used to giving them spot minutes of filling a special need or role.
The Jayhawks rank 44th nationally in average possession length at 16.4 seconds, more than a full second faster than the national average. This suggests that KU’s desire to run matches up with its ability to do so.
While UNC is roughly average in terms of how its defense forces teams to grind out possessions, the Tar Heels would do well to try to make Kansas play the long-possession game in this one, if for no other reason than to take away potential easy baskets that Carolina might not have an offensive answer for.
KU’s defense vs. North Carolina’s sharp-shooting big man Brady Manek
Kansas knows plenty about what former Oklahoma forward Brady Manek is capable of doing on the offensive end on any night.
But whether he plays as a stretch 5 or more of a wing, with Bacot on the floor, will determine a lot of how the Jayhawks defend him. Either way, a lot of the onus here will fall on Wilson.
Manek has been as hot as any individual player in this year’s tournament. He averaged 20 points per game in UNC’s five tourney victories and made nearly 50% of his 3-point attempts, hitting 19 of 40 from beyond the arc.
Together, he and UNC guard Caleb Love have combined to attempt one less 3-point shot (90) in this year’s NCAA Tournament than KU’s entire team. So to say someone has to be aware of where Manek is and what he’s doing is a bit of an understatement.
“Brady has obviously been unbelievable,” Kansas coach Bill Self said Sunday. “He’s such a good player.”
Manek’s length, at 6-foot-10, and high release makes him a threat to get a shot off in just about any situation. And he does a great job of squaring his body and firing a quick release when coming off of screens. The easiest way for KU to combat that is by crowding him and not letting him get the room he needs to catch the ball or elevate cleanly.
Jalen Wilson will be the Kansas player who spends the most time on Manek in this one, and Wilson has shown of late that he, like many of his teammates, has put a priority on defending. But to say Manek’s entire output is dependent on how well Wilson defends him would be inaccurate. The Jayhawks will switch often and throw different looks Manek’s way to try to keep him uncomfortable and from finding any kind of rhythm.
We haven’t seen it much this season, but don’t be surprised for a second if Self elects to utilize some kind of junk defense if Manek gets going.
“He is always open,” Braun said of Manek. So, when he catches it, he does not have to dip to shoot, he just shoots it. He does not need any time to get it off. We cannot allow him to get going early and give him confidence.”
Ever since the second half of that Miami win in the Elite Eight, the Jayhawks have been incredibly loose.
They looked so calm and confident in the semifinal win over Villanova and they continue to look like a team that’s both having fun and fully focused on the task at hand.
Throughout the week, the Jayhawks have talked about how just getting to New Orleans was not their goal. Instead, they came to win it all. And now they have an opportunity to do just that.
Oddsmakers in Las Vegas list Kansas as a 4-point favorite in this one, making the Jayhawks the betting favorite in all six of their NCAA Tournament games this season.
KenPom lists KU as a slightly bigger favorite, with an 80-74 edge in the matchup and a 69% win probability.
Here’s the funny thing about these Tar Heels: As an 8 seed, they’re vying to become the lowest-seeded team to win a national title since Villanova won it as an 8 seed in 1985. And that Nova win over Georgetown is widely regarded as one of the biggest upsets in sports history. This would not be quite that big, but UNC’s seed and record do speak to the reason KU is favored.
Like Villanova on Saturday, North Carolina enters this one with a one-game edge in the all-time series between these two programs, leading 6-5.
The two programs have met six times in the NCAA Tournament — KU leads in those games 4-2 — and Self is 4-1 all-time against UNC, including a 3-0 mark while at Kansas.
Whether the outside world expected the Jayhawks to be in this position is irrelevant. These guys did. From the minute they started their offseason work to the addition of 10 new players, including four freshmen and four transfers, this veteran group believed it could do something special this season.
Now that they’re on the brink of it, they’re planning to take full advantage and aren’t interested in letting anything derail their plans.
“With the pieces that we’ve got and the practices and battles we have gone through, I think we have always felt like we are one of the best teams in the country,” senior guard Remy Martin said.
The Jayhawks have 40 minutes to prove that they’re not one of the best but the absolute best. If they do that, they’ll bring a sixth national title to the program and a week’s worth of celebrating to Lawrence, Kansas.
No. 1 Kansas
G – Dajuan Harris Jr., 6-1, 180, Soph.
G – Ochai Agbaji, 6-5, 210, Sr.
G – Christian Braun, 6-7, 205, Jr.
F – Jalen Wilson, 6-8, 225, Soph.
F – David McCormack, 6-10, 265, Sr.
No. 8 North Carolina
G – Caleb Love, 6-4, 195, Soph.
G – RJ Davis, 6-0, 175, Soph.
F – Leaky Black, 6-8, 200, Sr.
F – Brady Manek, 6-9, 230, Sr.
F – Armando Bacot, 6-10, 240, Jr.
David J. Phillip/Associated PressNo. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-6) vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (30-7)
Time: 5:09 p.m., Saturday, April 2, 2022
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: TBS | Radio: IMG Jayhawk Radio Network
1. 3-point defense
Even though this Villanova team is very different from the one that torched the Jayhawks in the 2018 Final Four, they’re still more than capable of getting hot from the outside and riding that to victory.
So much so, in fact, that Kansas coach Bill Self watched that 2018 game again this week while preparing for the Wildcats.
“When I said I watched it, I got through about 12 minutes of it. And after that, it was very obvious I wasn’t going to learn very much from it. That was probably good for me to see from the standpoint of how dangerous they can be when they’ve got it cooking.”
Make no mistake about it: This Villanova team can still reach that level. And if they do, it will make winning this game decidedly more difficult for the Jayhawks.
The Wildcats hit double-digit 3-pointers eight times in a game this season. And they knocked in seven or more 11 other times. Their 35.7% 3-point clip ranks 61st nationally according to KenPom.com, and the Wildcats are getting 38.6% of their points from behind the 3-point line, which ranks 25th in the country.
Two things are working in KU’s favor in this department, though. First, the Jayhawks shut down Providence and Miami’s 3-point shooting to the tune of 7-for-44 shooting (15.9%) in their Sweet 16 and Elite Eight victories.
Beyond that, Villanova has not exactly been lighting it up from the outside either. The Wildcats are shooting 34.3% from 3-point range in the tournament and just 27.5% (14 of 51) in their Sweet 16 and Elite Eight victories.
KU knew that defending the 3-point shot against Providence would be a key to winning that game, and the Jayhawks were so turned up defensively in the first half of that one that they built a 13-point lead and sent the Friars into scramble mode for the rest of the game.
A similar approach would do wonders in this matchup.
“I think we’ve got to lock in from the start,” KU senior Remy Martin said Friday. “I think we’ve got to make sure they feel us and they’re not too comfortable and run them off the (3-point) line. The main thing is to stay in front of your man so we don’t have to rotate, so it’s really just locking in defensively individually. If we do that, we’ll be in good shape.”
One thing to watch for with the Wildcats at the 3-point line is the way they move into the catch when passes are headed their way to create a little early daylight to get their shots off.
The Wildcats also like to utilize pump fakes and several Jayhawks talked this week about the importance of staying disciplined and down on defense to make Villanova make tough shots over them.
“Villanova is a great shooting team,” KU big man David McCormack said. “They like to play around the perimeter and do lots of ball slips just to kind of get a spread floor. You have to stay down because they’re good at drawing fouls. And you have to guard the perimeter.”
2. D up to play through nerves
It’s natural for any team and even the most talented and experienced players to experience serious nerves at this stage in the season.
For one, millions of people are watching around the world. For two, the stakes are as high as they get in college basketball.
The Jayhawks showed signs of nerves during their rough first half against Miami in the Elite Eight and junior guard Christian Braun said their response to that first half provided them with a valuable lesson for how to proceed through the rest of the tournament.
“Coach says a lot that if you are nervous or if you are playing tight, take it out on defense,” Braun said. “If you get a steal and you get running, it’ll take a lot of your nerves away. If you get a quick layup or a quick dunk, it’s easier. The hole looks a lot bigger when you do those things. So to take away the tightness you’ve got to play defense.”
Self said he thought his team was loose when they arrived in New Orleans on Wednesday. And he told broadcaster Jim Nantz, in an on-court interview at Friday’s open practice that the Jayhawks were “focused, loose and jacked and ready to go.”
While there’s a lot of reason to believe that’s true, it’s only natural for the nerves to fire on game day.
On offense, nerves lead to turnovers and bad decisions, which can derail a team’s hopes as quickly as anything.
On defense, nerves lead to slow rotations, being in the wrong spot and fouls. And if there’s one thing you don’t want to do with the Wildcats, it’s send them to the free throw line.
Villanova, at 83%, is on pace to break the single-season college basketball record for free throw percentage currently owned by Harvard (81.8%) from the 1983-84 season.
3. Play fast
Anyone who listened to Villanova coach Jay Wright talk about Kansas throughout the week surely came away with fully aware of one key point. Wright is very worried about KU’s speed.
“Just watching more of Kansas, I’m just so impressed with their team speed, their intelligence defensively and their execution in dead-ball situations,” Wright said Friday. “They’re going to be one of the fastest, quickest teams we’ve played against.”
The Wildcats, who average 71.9 points per game, no doubt would like to slow this one down and play it in the 60s, where they’re giving up just 62.2 points per game to their opponents.
Their plodding style, with guards who like to post up at 20 feet from the basket and back guys down will make that easier to do — if successful — and the Jayhawks can combat that by getting out in transition whenever possible.
Three of Villanova’s seven losses have come with the Wildcats scoring in the 70s. And five of those losses have come when they have allowed their opponent to score 70 points or more.
The matchup of Villanova’s bigger guards, including senior leader Collin Gillespie, posting up KU’s smaller guards, Djuan Harris Jr. and Remy Martin will be worth watching. And Wright said KU’s length could create issues for Villanova’s favored style.
“If you look at Braun, Agbaji, those guys, and even Harris, they play with length and size,” Wright said this week. “And they always have a (Mitch) Lightfoot or McCormack around the basket to protect the basket. That’s going to be difficult. So we’re going to have to be creative in finding ways to get our guards down there. If we can, it’s going to be good for us. If we can’t, we have to have other answers.”
Said Harris of the idea of he and his teammates creating problems for the Villanova guards: “Our wings are tall. We just use our length against them (and) I feel like it will bring a lot of pressure.”
Pressure leads to turnovers, turnovers lead to transition and easy baskets and that type of track meet, if it plays out that way, would almost certainly favor Kansas.
KU senior Ochai Agbaji vs. the Villanova defense
It’s been an interesting tournament for Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji, a first-team All-American who won both the Big 12 regular season player of the year honor and the Big 12 tournament MVP award.
He enters the Final Four on a major uptick, having dropped 18 points with a strong second half in the Elite Eight win over Miami. But his overall numbers in this year’s NCAA Tournament have not matched what he did during much of the regular season.
He’s averaging 12.3 points per game on 41.7% shooting — after hitting for nearly 20 ppg during the regular season — and, at times, has appeared to be stymied by the way teams have defended him.
Expect that to be a big factor here. Villanova no doubt will make Agbaji the focus of its defensive game plan. Jay Wright is too good to let KU’s All-American beat him. But Agbaji still has to be a factor, even if the Wildcats crowd him and try to make him uncomfortable.
Self said on Thursday that, given the stage and the senior’s role and status, KU needs Agbaji to play well in order to win. The easiest way he can ensure he does that is by putting his head down and driving to the rim.
He showed signs of that in the Elite Eight win over Miami and that helped him breakout for an NCAA Tournament high 18 points. Settling for jumpers plays into Villanova’s hands too much.
Open jumpers are one thing. He has to take those, as long as they’re in rhythm and good looks. But if they’re not, or if he’s not hitting, it’ll be up to him to force the action and make sure he’s a factor.
Agbaji’s defensive intensity also could play a role in making sure he gets going. Steals, deflections and run-outs are the easiest way for him to get points. And when he gets them that way, it tends to bring energy and confidence to the entire KU roster.
“They have very quick and physical guards,” Villanova forward Brandon Slater said. “They love getting downhill. Even their forwards can drive, as well. Their drives are going to be big for them. We are going to try and take away as much of their offense as we can.”
Kansas and Villanova have met five times since 2013, with four of those five games being decided by five points or fewer.
These programs, these coaches and even several of these individual players know each other pretty well, and players and coaches on both sides are expecting this to be a coin-flip game that is physically and mentally intense from start to finish.
The focus for Kansas is to go win the game. Attack instead of react. Play aggressive basketball from the jump and leave nothing to chance.
“If you were to ask coaches across America that played against (Villanova), they’d say they’re unbelievably sound, they’re fundamental, they don’t turn it over, you have to beat them. They don’t beat themselves,” Self said of the Wildcats. “In our sport, there’s more games lost than there are games actually won. And they’re not going to help you beat them.”
Both teams are red-hot and riding nine-game winning streaks. And both teams feature some serious experience, both on the floor and on the bench.
Although the Jayhawks have three wins over Big East teams this season (St. John’s, Creighton and Providence), Self said they have not seen a team that looks that much like Villanova. The Wildcats said the same about Kansas.
“I don’t believe that we’ve gone against anybody during our regular season that would actually prepare us for the style that Villanova plays,” Self said.
Not that it would matter much here anyway. All bets are off when teams reach the Final Four, as the experience takes on a life of its own and is the culmination of nearly a week’s worth of preparation and analysis. Nothing is a secret anymore. Strengths and weaknesses have been discovered and highlighted and game plans are in place for each one.
At this point, it’s all about execution, and the Jayhawks are hoping that their late-season surge, with Martin at the heart of it, will be enough to move past a tough but short-handed Villanova team that will be playing without starter Justin Moore, who tore his Achilles’ in the Elite Eight win over Houston.
The Wildcats were thin to begin with and they’ll be asking some of their reserves to take ahold of that next man up philosophy that so many teams turn to when injuries hit.
Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt that the Jayhawks have done everything in their power to be ready for everything that will come their way on Saturday night. Given that this is the first NCAA Tournament to feature a true Final Four, with all of the fans and pageantry of years past, the excitement is even higher than it might have been.
The fact that it’s blue blood city, with KU, Villanova, Duke and North Carolina all competing for one trophy, merely adds to it.
“This is the first time since 2019 that we’ve actually had a tournament that we actually feel like we’ve participated in and had a chance,” Self said Friday. “Even though that year we didn’t perform well. So I’m excited. I think our players are excited. Several of them were on the (2019-20) team that might have had a chance. We’re jacked to be here and soaking it all in.”
KU leads the all-time series with the Wildcats 5-4 and Self is 4-5 overall against Villanova, 3-5 while at Kansas. The Wildcats have won four of the last five games in the series, including two in the NCAA Tournament — the 2018 Final Four and the 2016 Elite Eight.
Oddsmakers in Las Vegas list Kansas as a 4-point faorite over the second-seeded Wildcats. KenPom believes the Jayhawks are just one point better (70-69) than the Wildcats and gives the top seed a 53% win probability.
No. 1 Kansas
G – Dajuan Harris Jr., 6-1, 180, Soph.
G – Ochai Agbaji, 6-5, 210, Sr.
G – Christian Braun, 6-7, 205, Jr.
F – Jalen Wilson, 6-8, 225, Soph.
F – David McCormack, 6-10, 265, Sr.
No. 2 Villanova
G – Collin Gillespie, 6-3, 195, Sr.
G – Jalen Daniels, 6-4, 210, Sr.
G – Jermaine Samuels, 6-7, 230, Sr.
F – Brandon Slater, 6-7, 220, Sr.
F – Eric Dixon, 6-8, 255, Soph.
Here’s a look at our coverage from New Orleans so far:
• Kansas’ confidence, swagger during Final Four run drawn from experience
• Kansas will be tested by Villanova’s strategy of posting up its guards
• KU guard Ochai Agbaji is in position to add name next to Danny Manning’s on exclusive list
• Hi Mom: KU coach Bill Self’s mom has been back in the bleachers for KU’s run to the Final Four
• Villanova’s Caleb Daniels completes ‘marathon’ from New Orleans to Final Four
• Bill Self, Jay Wright agree – 2018 matchup has no bearing on this year’s game
• Bill Self hopes Jayhawks play for themselves and each other and ‘just enjoy it’
• Photo gallery from Day 1 of KU-Villanova
• Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski reached out to KU coach Bill Self after passing of Self’s father
• Bill Self breaks down Villanova guard Collin Gillespie
• Villanova, Jay Wright give initial thoughts on Kansas
• A quick capsule glance at Villanova
• Kansas enjoying ‘great experience’ in its first day at the Final Four
• Jayhawks arrive in New Orleans ready to soak up ‘college basketball’s best’
