Nick KrugNo. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (17-3, 6-1 Big 12) vs. Texas Tech (13-7 overall, 4-3 Big 12)
Time: 3 p.m. | Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
TV: ESPN | Radio: IMG Jayhawk Radio Network
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1. Ball and body movement are critical
Throughout their recent rise under head coach Chris Beard, the Texas Tech Red Raiders have become a team known for their defense.
Asked this week what made preparing for Beard’s teams such a challenge in a short period of time, Kansas coach Bill Self pointed to that defense, and, specifically, the Red Raiders’ ability to force opposing offenses to play how and where they want them to play on the court.
“They keep the ball on one side of the floor better than most for sure,” Self said of Tech’s suffocating half-court D.
The best way to combat that is with ball and body movement all over the floor and at all times.
“The way they keep the ball on one side, we’re gonna have to have a lot of movement,” said KU sophomore Ochai Agbaji. “We remember from last year how rough it is and to come off ball screens, especially when they’re switching (all five spots) and downing (ball screens) and all that. So we’ll have to you know be focused and prepared for that.”
The KU offense is averaging 15 assists per game so far this season, ranking the Jayhawks 57th nationally in that category.
Better ball movement does not guarantee assists, of course, but it certainly increases the chances of getting easier buckets off assists.
And with this being a matchup of two of the country’s eight best defensive teams in terms of efficiency, per KenPom.com, the better KU takes care of the ball and keeps the Tech defense moving, the better the Jayhawks’ chances.
2. First one to score wins?
Generally speaking, whichever team scores first in a college basketball game does not have necessarily have an advantage or the inside track on winning the game.
But, as crazy as it sounds, that might actually be worth something in this matchup. Maybe.
In the past four meetings between these two teams, the squad that has scored the game’s first points has gone on to win without surrendering the lead.
That’s zero lead changes in 160 minutes of basketball between two of the top programs in the Big 12 Conference during the past few seasons.
The last time the two teams played a game where the lead landed on both sides was almost three full years ago, on Feb. 11, 2017, when KU knocked off Texas Tech, 80-79 in Lubbock, Texas. And that’s back when names like Mason, Jackson, Lucas and Graham were still on the roster.
It’s extremely uncommon for this to happen in any game, no matter how lopsided the matchup might be. But just in case the trend continues for a fifth consecutive game, the Jayhawks might want to make sure they value that first offensive possession a little more than they normally might.
3. Time to set the rotation
Self said Thursday that he was yet not locked in on naming Christian Braun or Isaiah Moss as the team’s fifth starter for the rest of the season.
“We’ve got seven guys that could all start,” said Self, noting that Braun will start versus Texas Tech and that KU is likely going to stay with the four-guard starting lineup the rest of the way.
With that in mind, David McCormack — back from his two-game suspension — now has the opportunity to dive into his role as Udoka Azubuike’s backup.
That should help both Azubuike and McCormack find more concrete roles the rest of the way. And regardless of whether it’s Braun or Moss in the starting lineup, the Jayhawks should be able to spend the next month fine-tuning their rotation and style in an attempt to be peaking by the time March roles around.
More guards on the floor means more space for Azubuike inside and more driving lanes for Marcus Garrett and Devon Dotson.
Now that the Jayhawks are embracing that way of playing — which has been their best offensive lineup most of the season anyway — it should be interesting to see how quickly things come together for all parties involved.
Prior to McCormack’s suspension, Self continued to operate with two bigs in the game for small chunks of time. And he said Thursday that he might still do that in certain situations from here on out, although doing so today is unlikely.
The smart money is on the Jayhawks settling into their four-around-one offense and using the next few weeks to make sure that everyone is comfortable and clicking while playing the small-ball style.
That starts today against one of the best defensive tests the Jayhawks could ask for.
KU coach Bill Self vs. Texas Tech coach Chris Beard
Say what you will about players making plays and hustle plays or the ball bouncing the right way. While all of those things — and so many more — will no doubt factor into this game and every game the rest of the way, the coaching matchup in this one is off-the-charts good.
In Self and Beard, you’re looking at the two coaches in the Big 12 who have most recently led their team to a Final Four.
Both find consistent success by emphasizing defense and effort and toughness and mental focus, but both are more than capable of bailing their team out with a timely adjustment or terrific call from the bench a couple of times a game.
If this one is tight, which most Big 12 games have been this season, don’t be surprised if it’s a decision from the bench that gives one of these teams the upper hand.
For the Jayhawks, who are playing at home, where Self has lost just 15 times in his 17-year KU career, that typically is a major advantage.
But Beard brought a team into Allen Fieldhouse and won a couple of years ago, and he did it by flawlessly executing a game plan that kept Kansas off balance from start to finish.
It will be interesting to see what Beard’s focus is in this one. Will he be like most coaches and do whatever he has to do to take Azubuike away? Will he play it straight and count on his team’s stifling defense to keep KU on its heels?
And what will Self do to counter? Especially on defense, where the Jayhawks no doubt will have their hands full against a Texas Tech motion offense that was born from the Bob Knight philosophies.
“The hardest (offense) to prepare for, if somebody runs it well, is motion,” Self said this week. “Because there’s not a pattern to it. They set a ton of fade screens, and they do some things that are a little different that you don’t see all time because very few teams run it.”
There are a lot of quality coaches with great track records in the Big 12 right now, but few coaching matchups are as exciting and intense as this one.
Kansas leads the all-time series with Texas Tech 35-6, including an 18-1 mark inside Allen Fieldhouse.
And the Jayhawks enter this one with the opportunity to all but knock Texas Tech out of the Big 12 race, therein keeping the Red Raiders from having a realistic shot at defending their 2019 title.
A Kansas win would hand Texas Tech its fourth conference loss. And, as the Big 12 schedule nears the midway point, each week and each game is taking on greater importance.
However, if the Red Raiders can find a way to leave Allen Fieldhouse victorious, they’ll be just one game behind Kansas for second place in the Big 12 standings and no doubt would move forward still believing that they could catch both KU and Baylor.
The Red Raiders are coming off a huge home win over West Virginia earlier this week in which they buried 11 3-pointers and scored nearly 20 points above their season average.
Kansas has had a tendency to give up good looks to opponents from behind the 3-point line this season, but the Jayhawks also are doing a better job of running teams off the 3-point line and forcing them to shoot contested 2-pointers instead of open 3s of late.
KenPom has Kansas as a 12-point favorite, with the Jayhawks holding a win probability of 86%. Those numbers might seem a little high, but given the fact that the Jayhawks have won eight games in Allen Fieldhouse by an average margin of 19.3 points per game, there is some reason to believe a double-digit win is possible, even against a hard-nosed, quality team like Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders, who have been in and out of the AP Top 25 throughout the season, are currently 28th in the AP poll and 24th in the latest KenPom.com rankings.
No. 3 Kansas
G – Devon Dotson, 6-2, 185, Soph.
G – Ochai Agbaji, 6-5, 210, Soph.
G – Christian Braun, 6-6, 205, Fr.
G – Marcus Garrett, 6-5, 195, Jr.
C – Udoka Azubuike, 7-0, 265, Sr.
Texas Tech
G – Davide Moretti, 6-3, 180, Jr.
G – Jahmi’us Ramsey, 6-4, 195, Fr.
G – Kyler Edwards, 6-4, 200, Soph.
F – T.J. Holyfield, 6-8, 225, Sr.
F – Terrence Shannon Jr., 6-6, 210, Fr.
