Sure, Iowa State has lost its six Big 12 games by an average of 11 points and Kansas has lost its by an average of 30. And yes, the Jayhawks have lost their last 22 games vs. FBS schools and 18 in a row vs. Big 12 competition.
And then there is the 3-63 record in Big 12 play, starting with Game 1 of KU’s active 40-game road losing streak in Boulder, Colo., on Oct. 17, 2009.
Granted, coach Matt Campbell brought quite the resume with him from Toledo, where he went 35-15 and coached the Rockets to three bowl games in four seasons.
And then there is Iowa State’s red-zone efficiency. The Cyclones have come away from 26 penetrations inside the 20 with 16 touchdowns and eight field goals, a 92.3-percent success rate that ranks 13th in the nation. KU (78.3 percent) ranks 100th.
Iowa State starts four seniors on the offensive line, Kansas one.
I could keep going here, listing data that justifies Iowa State’s status as a 10-point favorite.
But I have a feeling Kansas will pull off the upset Saturday in a game that kicks off in Memorial Stadium at 11 a.m.
I believe that the Kansas offense that has averaged an anemic 15.5 points in its six Big 12 games will have a zip to it that hasn’t been seen in a conference game since interim head coach Clint Bowen’s squad drummed the Cyclones, 34-14, two years and three days ago at Memorial Stadium with Michael Cummings at quarterback.
Against all odds, I believe suddenly in this Kansas football team because I believe Carter Stanley is just what it needs: A fresh face capable of using his feet, with the ability to move through his progressions and lead the offense confidently.
It’s been so long since Kansas has had exciting play at quarterback that a big game from Stanley would make the receivers run harder and longer to get open. It would give head coach David Beaty more confidence in the running game because with a running threat at QB, that opens things up for the running backs. Plus, the Cyclones rank eighth in the conference with five yards per carry allowed.
After watching so many Kansas quarterbacks look so crisp in practice and so shell-shocked in games, it was nice to see one who didn’t show enough in practice to earn the job look like such a gamer on Saturday in Morgantown.
If Stanley moves the offense as well as I suspect he will, that will enable the defense to rest and play with the confidence that their stops will matter and not be wasted by an offense that creates an impending sense of doom.
Stanley doesn’t need to be the star of the game to lead Kansas to victory. The strength of this team every week is up front on defense. KU ranks fourth in conference games with 22 sacks and Iowa State has allowed the most sacks (30) in conference play, an average of five per game.
The defense creates mayhem, Stanley manages the game well enough not to give the ball right back, Ke’aun Kinner and Taylor Martin keep the chains moving and Kansas scores the upset.
Tens of thousands of tickets are available. With no rain in the forecast and temperatures in the 50’s, sweatshirt weather, you might want to walk up to the ticket window and bring the family. Something tells me you’ll have a good time if you do.