Versatile entertainer Justin Timberlake made news from his Twitter account (@jtimberlake) by lobbying for the inclusion of Memphis in the Big 12. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has thrown his support to Houston. Central Florida athletic director Danny White insists the Knights are a “monster” waiting to take up permanent residence in the national rankings once unleashed in a big conference and armed with all the advantages that brings.
It’s a lot for Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby to take in, so we’re here to help, as always. I thought it would be fun to rank 11 suitors and one blind résumé from a Big 12 school, 1 through 12, in four weighted categories and see what the numbers say. This is not meant to reach a definitive conclusion, rather to serve as a starting point for discussion on the relative merits of the many suitors.
The categories and weight they carry in the formula: location (37.5 percent), Nielsen designated market areas (25 percent), average football attendance in 2015 (25 percent), academic ranking (12.5 percent).
The geography category does not take into account convenience of travel, such as contiguity to a major airport, direct-flight availability, etc. It merely is a latitude/longitude measurement, based on how close each candidate is to the geographic center of the current 10-member Big 12. I determined that center by calculating the average latitude and longitude of the 10 members, rounding to the nearest tenth of a degree and finding a city closest to those figures, which worked out to 36.0 degrees North, 95.4 degrees West. Wagoner, Okla. — population 8,622 and 42 minutes southeast of Tulsa by car — take a bow. You are the geographic center point of the Big 12, at least until expansion moves the pin to another spot on the map.
My dream calls for nationally televised debates to take place in Wagoner for the top five in these rankings. The six schools in the JV debate can find a location with a smaller, more remote stage than Wagoner.
The scoring rules for the rankings: Twelve points were awarded for first in a category, all the way down to one point for last. In the location category, the number was multiplied by three, by two in the attendance and market-size categories, by one in academics.
One clarification: In the location category, if schools were within 25 miles of each other in terms of distance from Wagoner, it was considered a tie. Interestingly, four schools were that close to each other: Central Florida (1,190 miles from Wagoner), East Carolina (1,202), South Florida (1,207), Brigham Young (1,214). So they each received an equal share of points allotted for places 7, 8, 9 and 10.
The final standings, counting backward with point total in parentheses: 12. Boise State (18), 11. UConn (41), 10. East Carolina (43.5), 9. Central Florida (46.5), 8. Tulane (47), 7. South Florida (47.5), 6. Colorado State (53), 5. Cincinnati (59), 4. BYU (61.5), 3. Iowa State (65), 2. Memphis (67), 1. Houston (75).
The fact that Iowa State grades out higher than all but two of the hopefuls might bum out advocates of Big 12 expansion, but the counter argument is that by joining a Power Five conference, schools recruit better and steadily grow into football programs that draw bigger live and TV crowds.
University executives and athletic administrators never would agree to nationally televised debates, wherein candidates state their cases, because the subject matter is far too grave. They believe such TV shows should be saved for less-important matters, such as, oh, for example, selecting the next president of the United States.
Too bad, because the debates surely could draw big ratings and even bigger bucks for a conference that already cuts members an annual $30 million check, needed funds for the ever-expanding Kansas athletic department.
Former college football players now working in the media — Kirk Herbstreit (Ohio State), Heisman Trophy winner Desmond Howard (Michigan) and Jason Whitlock (Ball State) — could grill one representative from each school and try their best to get them to trash each other in a debate format.
The president from each university could select himself, an administrator or a famous alum to represent the school in the debates. BYU, for example, might want to put experienced debater Mitt Romney in front of the cameras to state the Cougars’ case. Or BYU might opt for an alum with more charisma than Romney, such as actor Jon Heder, who so masterfully played the title role in “Napoleon Dynamite” and could stay in character during the debate. Cincinnati could counter with alum George Clooney.
Instead of an entertaining debate, it all will be handled behind the curtain and explained with boring quotes at a news conference.
So which schools will win the Big 12 derby, and when will it happen? Multiple reports indicate the Big 12 wants to finalize expansion plans by Sept. 2, the open of the season, with the idea of adding schools for the 2017-18 school year.
Houston is an absolute lock, the second school a much tougher call.
BYU has a winning tradition and a national fan base, but I don’t sense an appetite from Big 12 members for heading that far west. A conference that spans three time zones lacks focus, identity. The Pac-12 seems like a better fit for BYU at some point.
My guess is Memphis and Cincinnati are neck-and-neck for the second spot behind Houston, and Colorado State plays the role of dark horse. At first blush, I like the idea of Memphis better than Cincinnati. Central Florida and South Florida, either both or neither but not one or the other, could enter the race if the Big 12 decides to expand to 14 schools and understandably can’t resist the temptation to add two huge TV markets.