Here’s hoping Xavier Henry is not only the first one-and-done player from Kansas University, but the last.
The NBA’s labor agreement expires June 30, 2011. The threat of labor strife wiping away all or part of the 2011-2012 season might cause standout freshmen such as Kansas point guard Josh Selby to resist the temptation to declare themselves eligible for the NBA Draft after one season in college.
That takes care of one player. What about all the others with one-and-done talent Bill Self is bound to recruit? With any luck, the next labor agreement will change the rule that allows players one year removed from the graduation of their high school class and at least 19 years of age during the calendar year to declare themselves eligible for the draft.
The best potential system, the one that most benefits the product on the court in college and the NBA, mimics that of Major League Baseball. Players can sign directly out of high school, but if they opt to enroll at a four-year college, they can’t be drafted until three years into their college experience. That one has no chance, but let’s play out that fantasy for a moment.
Had the baseball rule been in place when Julian Wright attended Kansas, one of two things would have happened after his junior season: 1. He would have gone to the NBA with three years of college seasoning, instead of two; 2. He would have been exposed by then as less a prospect than NBA talent evaluators wrongly guessed he was after his sophomore season. Slipping in the projections would have made him come back for his senior year.
Both scenarios would have made Wright a better long-range basketball player. The time he spent getting benched in his first two seasons in the NBA eroded his confidence. The time he spent at KU would have made him a more polished player, and the NBA wouldn’t have been quite as overwhelming to him as a rookie. The baseball-like rule might have led to less money in his bank account, but either way, he’s doing fine there.
A two-and-done world that allows players to leave directly out of high school or spend two years in college wouldn’t be as smooth as the baseball rule, but certainly would be better than the current system. As it is now, the NBA benefits because the networks covering college basketball market future pro stars for a whole year at no expense to the NBA. Plus, it delays the earning power of the most talented players by a year, a cost savings. Under the baseball rule, players such as Greg Oden could have started earning millions one year earlier.
It’s too late to do Henry any good. The rule allowed him to jump. Based on how early he was chosen, with the 12th pick, and by whom, the Memphis Grizzlies, it’s tough to say Henry goofed. Yet, as in Wright’s case, Henry’s a better player 10 years from now with three years of college experience than one.
Knocking down three-point shots is Henry’s ticket to playing time off the bench as a rookie. His greatest projected strength matches up with his competitors’ biggest weakness. Last season, Ronnie Brewer shot .234 from beyond the arc, Sam Young .196. DeMarre Carroll missed all six long-range attempts.