Commentary: BCS works strictly by coincidence

By Gil Lebreton - Fort Worth Star-Telegram     Nov 28, 2007

The cynics and troublemakers want to see chaos.

They want to see upsets. They want to see Missouri, the college football Cinderella, turn into a pumpkin. They want to see Dave Wannstedt’s underachieving Pitt team spoil West Virginia’s heavenly dreams.

They want bloodshed in Baton Rouge and Columbus.

They want a total Bowl Championship Series meltdown. They want to see some sort of combination of aligned planets, howling dogs and Southeastern Conference losses where the final rankings send, oh, Hawaii and Appalachian State to the BCS title game.

And it’s hard to blame them. The BCS deserves all the misery and criticism that it gets.

Poor Missouri. Enjoy your brief stay atop the polls and BCS standings. The spotlight is richly deserved, yet so is the target that now is painted on your back. Why should Mizzou be any different?

The rabble-rousers out there want the BCS formula to fail again, like it did in 2003 when Oklahoma, not Southern Cal, got to play for the national championship. Or like 2004, when an undefeated Auburn team was left out of the big game. Or like last season, when Michigan fans barked because they were denied a rematch with Ohio State.

Sometimes the BCS system works. Strictly by coincidence.

Most of the rest of the time, somebody is complaining in Eugene, Ore., or from some SEC team’s porch. The BCS apologists are still trying to explain how the 2001 Nebraska team didn’t qualify for the Big 12 championship game, yet was allowed to play in the national title game.

And now there is this season’s spidery web where, with the right/wrong combination of goblins and upsets next weekend, a team with two losses could end up playing for the BCS crystal trophy.

Which wouldn’t be altogether wrong. Not this crazy season.

The latest BCS standings, released Sunday, vaulted two of the two-time losers, Georgia and Virginia Tech, into the top six. This, despite Georgia’s less-than-impressive victory Saturday over Georgia Tech. And the latter, even though Virginia Tech was routed 48-7 in September by LSU, the team now ranked behind it.

Huh?

All season long, teams at the top of the polls suffered upsets and paid a high price. South Florida’s first defeat dropped the Bulls from second in the standings to 10th. Boston College fell from second to eighth. Ohio State tumbled from first to seventh after a loss, as did LSU this week.

So why does an overrated Kansas team, with one of the weakest schedules of a ranked BCS conference team, get whipped convincingly and only drop from second to fifth? Are the coaches and the Harris voters even trying to get this right?

The KU dream was cute while it lasted. But how can anyone criticize Ohio State’s schedule, when the Jayhawks had victories over the likes of Central Michigan, Southeastern Louisiana and Florida International and didn’t have to face Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech?

As colleague Nico Van Thyn put it so well Sunday, the path to the BCS title game is often clearly drawn. It begins with basic geography: Play in a major conference that lacks major competition. If a team can count the dangerous opponents on one hand, it probably has a chance at playing in the BCS title game.

West Virginia, for example. A so-so conference and no league title game to play.

The BCS has failed college football again.

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