Keegan: McD’s a poor predictor

By Tom Keegan     Mar 28, 2007

Diet pills. Nose jobs. Technology stocks. We live in a quick-fix society. We want the world, and we want it now. Shortcuts are in. Building a solid foundation takes too long, involves too much work, and really now, who wants to work? Spending all that time working leaves too little time for complaining.

This sort of quick-fix, easy-answer approach has infected the way many judge recruiting classes and set expectations for college basketball teams. The formula: Count the number of McDonald’s All-Americans on the roster, determine the team’s talent level based solely on that, and judge the coach based on the “talent.”

Super size the expectations if a team has multiple marquee high school players, especially if those stars performed well in the all-important dunk competition. Measure in inches the average vertical leap of the players on the roster and that’s how many victories the fan base must demand of the coach. If it’s 36 inches, then anything less than 36 victories constitutes a miserable failure.

It hasn’t come to that yet, but it keeps inching in that direction.

Here’s the problem with setting expectations based on prep All-American status: It doesn’t work. In three of four regional finals of the NCAA Tournament, the team with fewer McDonald’s All-Americans won. The lone exception came when Ohio State, with four, defeated Memphis, which had none. That game was also the only one in which the younger team advanced to the Final Four.

North Carolina’s six alumni of the all-star game that celebrates its 30th anniversary tonight in Louisville, Ky., combined for 53 points in an overtime loss to Georgetown. The Hoyas won despite just two points from their lone Mickey D alumnus, Vernon Macklin. Georgetown juniors Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert both are potential NBA lottery picks. Hibbert, who arrived at Georgetown a project, played 16 minutes a game and averaged five points as a freshman.

Defending national champion Florida, with all five starters plus super subs Warren Hodge and Chris Richard back from last year’s team, boasts one McPlayer, Corey Brewer, and still managed to defeat Oregon despite terrific games from former high school All-Americans Aaron Brooks and Malik Hairston, who combined for 45 points, showing they deserved the high school honor.

Kansas played four McVeterans, UCLA two, one of whom (James Keefe) played one minute. Then again, Arron Afflalo was the other, and he outscored the four KU McOffnights, 24-14.

Darrell Arthur, Mario Chalmers, Sherron Collins and Julian Wright combined for 14 points in 101 minutes. The other five players scored 41 points in 99 minutes.

So don’t read too much into the performance of Kansas-bound center Cole Aldrich in tonight’s McDonald’s All-American game. For that matter, don’t judge Tyrel Reed, the other signee, for not being selected.

Imagine if Hibbert had been thrown into the all-star game three years ago as a last-minute substitution. He would have stood out as the slowest player on the court. He would have been slammed on message boards, from barstools, maybe even in arenas. Instead, he developed outside the spotlight and blossomed into a player capable of helping Georgetown to the Final Four. He matured. He learned. Isn’t that what college is supposed to be all about?

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