Picking the field: Kansas to win it all

By Jim O'Connell - Associated Press Basketball Writer     Mar 13, 2007

Sixty-four games over three weeks whittle a field of 65 to one national champion. Here’s one way to look at the NCAA tournament:

(Winners in upper case; seeds in parentheses)

Midwest Regional

First Round

¢ FLORIDA (1) vs. Jackson State (16) – The Gators start their run to a title defense with an easy win.

¢ ARIZONA (8) vs. Purdue (9) – Both teams closed the regular season strong before losing quarterfinal tournament games to eventual conference champions, but the Wildcats have a more balanced offense with all five starters averaging between 16.8 and 9.5 points per game.

¢ Butler (5) vs. OLD DOMINION (12) – It’s not a rule, but a 12 seed has beaten a 5 for the last six years. The Monarchs have three senior starters led by 6-foot-7 Valdas Vasylius. The Bulldogs started the season strong but four of their losses came in the final eight games.

¢ MARYLAND (4) vs. Davidson (13) – The Terrapins’ loss to Miami in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament snapped a seven-game winning streak that included two wins over Duke and one over North Carolina. D.J. Strawberry is a lockdown defender who should make life tough for Davidson’s Stephen Curry, the second-leading freshman scorer in the country (21.2) to Texas’ Kevin Durant.

¢ NOTRE DAME (6) vs. Winthrop (11) – Although the Eagles are on an 18-game winning streak and are the vogue pick as this year’s George Mason, they haven’t seen an offense during that run quite like the Fighting Irish, who average 81.5 points, eighth-best in the country.

¢ OREGON (3) vs. Miami, Ohio (14) – Aaron Brooks leads five starters who score in double figures for the Ducks, who swept through the Pac-10 tournament by an average of 20.3 points. Miami will need a lot more than the last-second banked 3 by Doug Penno that won the Mid-American Conference title game.

¢ UNLV (7) vs. GEORGIA TECH (10) – The Yellow Jackets beat Boston College and North Carolina before a double-overtime loss to Wake Forest in the ACC tournament, and freshmen Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young have lived up to their preseason billing and lead the team with 14.6 averages. The Runnin’ Rebels, making their first NCAA appearance since 2000, will have trouble keeping up on the boards.

¢ WISCONSIN (2) vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (15)- The Badgers will be playing their fourth straight game in nearby Chicago, and the Islanders are making their NCAA tournament debut.

Second Round

¢ FLORIDA vs. Arizona – The Gators are the first national champion to return all five starters since Arizona in 1997-98, and their depth up front will wear down ‘Zona’s Ivan Radenovic.

¢ MARYLAND vs. Old Dominion – These teams both play solid defense, holding opponents under 70 points per game, but the Terrapins have more offense, shooting almost 48 percent from the field.

¢ Oregon vs. NOTRE DAME – Both teams can score, but the Fighting Irish have a little more up front. They finished with a plus-5 rebound advantage in a physical Big East.

¢ Wisconsin vs. GEORGIA TECH – The Yellow Jackets can get out and run, as evidenced by their average 79 points per game, and the Badgers have scored more than 55 points just once in their last six games.

Semifinals

¢ FLORIDA vs. Maryland – This was the round where the Gators had their closest call last season and it should be tight again, but their experience is the key against the Terrapins, most of whom are in the tournament for the first time.

¢ Notre Dame vs. GEORGIA TECH – This could be one of the highest scoring games of the tournament, but the Yellow Jackets have had some success defending the 3, the Fighting Irish’s biggest weapon.

Final

¢ FLORIDA vs. Georgia Tech – The surprise run by a young, double-digit seed ends for Georgia Tech.

West Regional

First Round

¢ KANSAS (1) vs. Florida A&M-Niagara winner (16) – The Jayhawks haven’t gotten through the first round in two years, but are on an 11-game winning streak.

¢ KENTUCKY (8) vs. Villanova (9) – The only sure thing in this one is that the Wildcats will win. Which ones? When Kentucky wins, it’s behind center Randolph Morris, who leads the team in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (7.7). Villanova’s only two losses in the last 11 games were to Georgetown, a team strong up front.

¢ VIRGINIA TECH (5) vs. Illinois (12) – The Hokies had a lot of big wins this season behind the senior backcourt of Zabian Dowdell (18.0) and Jamon Gordon (11.3), and they should be able to score against the Illini, whose strength is up front.

¢ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (4) vs. Holy Cross (13) – The Salukis won 13 straight before losing to Creighton in the Missouri Valley Conference title game and their lack of rebounding (29.9 per game) shouldn’t be a problem against the Crusaders.

¢ DUKE (6) vs. Virginia Commonwealth (11) – The Blue Devils come in having lost three straight, the last without freshman Gerald Henderson, who was suspended for his flagrant foul against North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough. The Rams’ strength is their three-guard offense, a defensive problem for Duke all season.

¢ PITTSBURGH (3) vs. Wright State (14) – The Panthers come in off a drubbing by Georgetown in the Big East final, but the Raiders’ frontcourt shouldn’t be a problem for 7-footer Aaron Gray, who was 1-for-13 from the field for a season-low three points against the Hoyas.

¢ Indiana (7) vs. GONZAGA (10) – The Bulldogs have been a bracket favorite for the last several years, but they come in off a regular season that saw them lose 10 games, including two at home. Even without suspended center Josh Heytvelt, Gonzaga still scores almost 80 points a game behind a solid backcourt of Derek Raivio (18.2 points) and Jeremy Pargo (12.2 points, 4.6 assists). Indiana, with the exception of a 94-point game against Penn State, hasn’t scored more than 71 in its last eight games.

¢ UCLA (2) vs. Weber State (15) – The Bruins may have lost two straight, but the Wildcats just don’t have enough size or speed to make it three.

Second Round

¢ KANSAS vs. Kentucky – A matchup of two of the sport’s top programs. The Jayhawks, without a senior on the roster, are fourth in the country in field-goal defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 37.4 percent. Kentucky has been erratic all season, shooting 47.9 percent.

¢ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. Virginia Tech – A low-scoring matchup of solid senior backcourts, with the edge to Missouri Valley Conference player of the year Jamaal Tatum.

¢ PITTSBURGH vs. Duke – Pitt goes nine deep in its rotation, while Duke has four players who average more than 33 minutes a game.

¢ UCLA vs. Gonzaga – This matchup was a classic in the third round last year, and the Bruins went to the Final Four. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, with Adam Morrison in the NBA, the result is not likely to be as close this time.

Semifinals

¢ KANSAS vs. Southern Illinois – The Jayhawks average 15 more points a game than the Salukis and they can force the pace.

¢ UCLA vs. Pittsburgh – Bruins coach Ben Howland built the Pittsburgh program that Jamie Dixon has kept at the same level. UCLA has the experience and home-state advantage.

Finals

¢ KANSAS vs. UCLA – The backcourts are even, but the Jayhawks’ front line averages 40 rebounds a game and is fourth in the NCAA at plus-8.2 per game.

East Regional

First Round

¢ NORTH CAROLINA (1) vs. Eastern Kentucky (16) – The Tar Heels average 87.1 points per game. The Colonels scored more than that twice all season.

¢ Marquette (8) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (9) – Mentor vs. pupil, Tom Izzo vs. former assistant Tom Crean, but more importantly Drew Neitzel vs. Dominic James in a matchup of star guards.

¢ SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (5) vs. Arkansas (12) – The Trojans, who finished third in the Pac-10, have lost three of their last five, but freshman forward Taj Gibson has emerged with averages of 11.8 points and 8.4 rebounds. The Razorbacks, led by freshman Patrick Beverley (13.8 points) weren’t even in the running for an NCAA bid until a run in the Southeastern Conference tournament.

¢ TEXAS (4) vs. New Mexico State (13) – The Longhorns start four freshmen, but one is Kevin Durant, fifth in the nation in scoring at 25.1 points per game and among the leading candidates for national player of the year.

¢ Vanderbilt (6) vs. GEORGE WASHINGTON (11) – This a matchup of teams with very similar stats. Both are good at forcing opponents into turnovers, but the Colonials may have a slight advantage in an up-and-down game.

¢ WASHINGTON STATE (3) vs. Oral Roberts (14) – The Cougars are the success story of the season and they did it primarily with defense (59.1). The Golden Eagles rely on the high-scoring tandem of Caleb Green (20.8) and Ken Tutt (16.1).

¢ Boston College (7) vs. TEXAS TECH (10) – The Red Raiders had an eventful but inconsistent season. Bob Knight became the all-time winningest coach and there were victories over Texas A&M and Kansas, but also losses to Nebraska and Baylor. Boston College struggled to score in losing five of its last seven games.

¢ GEORGETOWN (2) vs. Belmont (15) – The Bruins lost by 34 points to UCLA in their NCAA debut last season and the Hoyas, one of the hottest teams in the country, promise to be no easier.

Second Round

¢ NORTH CAROLINA vs. Michigan State – The Tar Heels are second in the country in scoring (87.1) and the Spartans are third in points allowed (56.7). Something has to give.

¢ TEXAS vs. Southern California – The Longhorns average 83 points per game and they almost all come from freshmen. It’s hard to imagine the Trojans can stop Durant and his fellow rookies.

¢ WASHINGTON STATE vs. George Washington – GW forced 527 turnovers in 31 games, but the Cougars have a solid backcourt of Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver and committed only 330 in 32 games.

¢ GEORGETOWN vs. Texas Tech – The Hoyas control the inside with 7-2 Roy Hibbert and versatile 6-9 Jeff Green. The Red Raiders’ strength is on the perimeter.

Semifinals

¢ NORTH CAROLINA vs. Texas – No need for a 35-

second shot clock in this one. The stars should offset, so the difference is the supporting cast. The Tar Heels are deeper and better inside, with freshman Brandan Wright a tough matchup for the Longhorns.

¢ GEORGETOWN vs. Washington State – The Hoyas are among the top 20 teams in the country in rebound margin (5.8), while the Cougars were outrebounded by more than two per game. Georgetown has the athletes to open the game and Washington State had trouble in a transition game.

Final

¢ North Carolina vs. GEORGETOWN – The Hoyas are bigger and stronger inside and will try to slow the pace and make it more of a halfcourt game.

South Regional

First Round

¢ OHIO STATE (1) vs. Central Connecticut State (16) – The Blue Devils just haven’t seen a center like the Buckeyes’ Greg Oden.

¢ Brigham Young (8) XAVIER (9) – The Musketeers have one of the most balanced offenses in the country with five starters averaging between 13.3 and 9.3 points per game, and they allowed more than 70 points just twice in their last 10 games.

¢ TENNESSEE (5) vs. Long Beach State (12) – Chris Lofton of the Volunteers is one of the nation’s best guards and his 20.6 average and 93 three-pointers look even better against a team that allows 73.8 points per game.

¢ VIRGINIA (4) vs. Albany (13) – The Cavaliers’ backcourt of Sean Singletary (18.9) and J.R. Reynolds (17.8) took them on a surprise run in the ACC. The Great Danes won’t sneak up on anyone after scaring Connecticut in the first round last year.

¢ LOUISVILLE (6) vs. Stanford (11) – The Cardinals – plural – of Louisville vs. the Cardinal – singular – of Stanford. Louisville went 11-3 down the stretch after overcoming a rash of injuries and lives up to coach Rick Pitino’s style with 22 three-point attempts a game, making seven. The Cardinal has twin 7-footers Brook and Robin Lopez, but could have trouble defending the perimeter.

¢ TEXAS A&M (3) vs. Penn (14) – The Aggies lead the country in field-goal-percentage defense (37.1) and hold opponents to 29.8 percent from three-point range. A&M is the best three-point shooting team in the tournament at 42.2 percent, clutch guard Acie Law IV hits 51.3 percent from the field, 44.9 percent behind the arc. Penn’s top three scorers all shoot better than 50 percent, and the Quakers shoot 49.3 percent as a team.

¢ Nevada (7) vs. CREIGHTON (10) – This is the marquee matchup of mid-majors. The individual matchup of senior centers Anthony Tolliver of Creighton (13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 51 FG percent) and Nick Fazekas of the Wolf Pack (20.5 points, 11.2 rebounds) will be one of the best in the tournament. The big difference is the Creighton defense, which has given up only 60.1 points per game.

¢ MEMPHIS (2) vs. North Texas (15) – The Tigers and their high-powered offense (79.6) come in on a 22-game winning streak, longest in the nation.

Second Round

¢ OHIO STATE vs. Xavier – Xavier’s only chance is to hold down Oden in the middle.

¢ Virginia vs. TENNESSEE – This is the best guards matchup, but the Volunteers have the advantage up front with athletic freshmen forwards Wayne Chism and Duke Crews.

¢ TEXAS A&M vs. Louisville – The Aggies defend the perimeter as well as any team in the country and Law has the ability to take over the game should the Cardinals stay in it until the final minutes.

¢ MEMPHIS vs. Creighton – The Tigers average almost 40 rebounds per game and are effective inside with Joey Dorsey shooting 63 percent and Chris Douglas-Roberts 54 percent from the field.

Semifinals

¢ Ohio State vs. TENNESSEE – Upset Special. The Volunteers average almost 80 points per game and have an edge with Lofton’s experience against Buckeye freshman Mike Conley.

¢ TEXAS A&M vs. Memphis – The ultimate defense vs. offense matchup. The Aggies have held nine opponents under 50 points this season.

Final

¢ Texas A&M vs. TENNESSEE – Lofton’s experience should offset Law, leaving the Volunteers’ speed up front to take them to their first Final Four.

Final Four

¢ Florida vs. KANSAS – The Jayhawks beat the Gators early in the season and they have improved since then. The run to a repeat comes up short.

¢ GEORGETOWN vs. Tennessee – The Hoyas’ power game is just too much for the Volunteers’ young frontcourt.

Championship

¢ KANSAS vs. Georgetown – Both teams can get out and run and both have a true star. The Jayhawks, who haven’t won the title since 1988, have a slight advantage in backcourt depth.

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