Indianapolis ? New Mexico coach Ritchie McKay believes winning more than 20 games should be enough for an NCAA Tournament bid. Indiana coach Mike Davis argues the Hoosiers should be rewarded for playing one of the nation’s toughest schedules.
The perennial debate about whether victories or a strong schedule matter more could be an even hotter topic today when the 65-team field is announced.
“We’ve sent a consistent message during the time I’ve been around,” NCAA selection committee chairman Bob Bowlsby said this week during a teleconference. “You need to play a representative schedule.”
Failing to do so can get you a ticket to the NIT.
A year ago, Utah State was 25-3 overall, 17-1 in the Big West and ranked No. 25. Yet it became the first ranked team to miss the tournament since probation-saddled UNLV in 1993 because of what Bowlsby called a weak nonconference schedule.
In 2001, the committee took Georgia at 16-14 instead of Alabama at 21-10, also based on schedule.
That’s not good news for teams such as New Mexico or Davidson.
Davidson, which went 16-0 in the Southern Conference and lost in the conference final, may not get in because its schedule strength is 107.
New Mexico, which is 22-6, doesn’t play in one of the six power conferences — the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or Southeastern. The Lobos have an RPI number in the mid-80s, but a schedule ranked No. 298 out of 330.
Bowlsby wants to see schools improve their nonconference schedules, which they can control.
Teams that Bowlsby cites as upgrading their schedules, such as Alabama and Gonzaga, don’t appear to be in trouble this year.
“Alabama has significantly upgraded that schedule, and I think Gonzaga played a terrific preseason schedule,” he said. “They heard the message.”
But even the best-laid plans can go awry, as New Mexico discovered this year.
The Lobos faced Oregon, Tennessee, Wake Forest and New Mexico State — teams they thought would help their schedule strength. Instead, three of those teams had poor seasons.
“There’s no way of knowing what type of season a team is going to have,” McKay said. “Oregon had been in the postseason the last four years, and now it isn’t even in the Pac-10 tournament. Tennessee had every starter in their program back. They had an off year. Pepperdine was in our tournament and got upset. New Mexico State had their lowest RPI in recent memory.”
One problem for mid-majors is that many top programs back away from playing successful teams with smaller reputations and are reluctant to make trips to places such as Pacific University in Stockton, Calif.
And mid-majors are much less likely to meet Top 25 opponents during conference play.
Bowlsby said the committee could tell whether a school has tried to improve its schedule.
“We know who has played well and who hasn’t. We also can tell when an attempt has been made and when it hasn’t been made,” he said.
Indiana, which entered the Big Ten tournament 15-12, lost six straight during a brutal nonconference stretch that pitted the Hoosiers against North Carolina, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Kentucky, Missouri and Charlotte. The Hoosiers also lost to No. 1 Illinois, giving them the distinction of losing to conference champs in the ACC, Big East, Big Ten and SEC.
An easier schedule might have produced 17 or 18 wins — enough, possibly, to guarantee a spot in the field. Instead, the Hoosiers are still lobbying for a bid.
“I don’t think people realize how tough it was to play the schedule we did,” said Davis, who started three or four freshmen most of the season. “We don’t have a senior basketball team, and it’s really unfair to ask them to play what we played.”
Maryland, which beat Duke twice this season, is in a similar predicament. The Terrapins entered the ACC tourney with a 16-11 mark, a 7-9 conference record and the eighth-toughest schedule in the nation.
Coach Gary Williams prefers tough games because he thinks they prepare a team for a tournament run.
“We want to play those teams,” Williams said. “My first three or four years, we couldn’t play those teams on a consistent basis, but we’re glad to play that schedule now.”
Bowlsby said the emphasis on schedule strength sends a message to teams.
“More than anything else, we will go back and look at the schedule over which they had some control,” Bowlsby said. “That isn’t intended to mean that everyone has to play all their games against Top 25 opponents, but they don’t have to play all of the bottom 125 either. Those are the sorts of things that help us who decide who is in and who is out.”
