Not all of Rod Serling’s chilling predictions scripted for his Twilight Zone episodes have come true. Computers haven’t completely taken over the world. Not yet anyway.
Still, computers do sometimes serve a purpose, even in sports.
Sagarin has the best of the college basketball computer ranking systems, and the results are published in USA Today. This early in the season, they’re sort of out of whack, but still fun indicators, and in the case of Kansas University, scary ones.
Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 graduate of MIT, devised the rankings on the basis of a team’s record and margin of victory against Division I opponents and the strength of a team’s schedule. Other factors are worked into the equation so as not to reward teams for running up the scores against stiffs.
To try to forecast the outcome of games, Sagarin compares the teams’ ratings and adds 4.41 points to the home team.
Using the current Sagarin rankings as a means of forecasting, KU would win its remaining six nonconference games, including against Kentucky at the Fieldhouse on Jan. 7 and head into Big 12 play with a 9-4 record.
Not too shabby. And then? The Jayhawks would go 6-10 and head into the Big 12 tournament with a 15-14 record. Ouch.
At the moment, KU ranks third among Division I schools in the state of Kansas, according to Sagarin, which has Wichita State ranked 25th, K-State 61st and KU 71st.
All that means is the Jayhawks haven’t played well yet. We knew that without the help of a computer. The question now lies with how the Jayhawks can improve enough to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. KU coach Bill Self cited a lack of aggressiveness.
“When young players lose their confidence, they sometimes start to play timid and try not to mess up,” Self said. “When they have their confidence, they can play off the charts because they don’t know any better. The only way I know how to do that is through repetition in practice.”
Here’s another idea: Start the four freshmen along with Sasha Kaun for Saturday’s game against talented California at Kemper Arena. Thus far, Brandon Rush is the only freshman to start a game. Making such a bold move would not be without its risks, but is there a better way to boost a player’s confidence than to show him you believe in him so much you’re going to start him?
Self has used the same starting five every game, but still searches for the right combination to put on the floor for the end of tight games.
“The thing that can be somewhat frustrating is that our best offensive team is our worst defensive team and our best defensive team is our worst offensive team,” Self said. “I know in my heart the way we are going to win games is defensively.”
Not necessarily. If the talent disparity between the lineups on offense is greater than the disparity when comparing how the lineups play defense, then it’s better to go with the scoring lineup over the defending lineup. It’s easier to improve as a defender, through learning what’s taught in practice and intensifying effort level, than it is to improve as an offensive player. Adrenaline can improve a player’s defensive effort and nothing quite manufactures adrenaline like hearing your name announced as a starter.