Will Alabama and UAB follow in the footsteps of famous Cinderellas in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament?
Alabama and UAB’s twin topplings of No. 1 seeds Stanford and Kentucky were unprecedented in the history of the 64-team NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Never before have an eight and nine seed advanced to the Sweet 16 in the same year.
The question now is, does bracket history favor their chances of advancing even farther?
While millions of tourney pool fanatics are still in shock over the sudden shattering of their brackets, however, statistically speaking, the Crimson Tide and Blazers were well positioned to spring the upsets.
Teams with Alabama’s combination of coaching experience, close games and a rocky record were 6-9 against top seeds for a 40% success rate (all other No. 8 seeds were 2-17). High-scoring, frontcourt dominant No. 9 seeds like UAB were 2-5 (all the rest were 0-35) in the second round. So the odds were
a not-so-shocking 11.5% that the two Alabama schools would surprise their top-seeded foes.
What are the odds that Alabama and UAB will continue their winning ways into the Final Four? If history is any indication, deeper tourney runs wouldn’t be unusual for either squad. Alabama is the ninth No. 8 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed in 37 tries.
Based on history, the odds that it’ll reach the Elite Eight are actually better than even. No. 8 seeds are 5-3 in round three. UCLA was the most recent winner in 2002.
No. 8 seeds that have been to the previous year’s tourney and give up fewer than 72 points per game are a perfect 5-0 in the Sweet 16. Alabama fits both descriptions.
If Alabama gets past Syracuse, its odds of advancing to the Final Four, based on history, are also better than even. The five previous No. 8 seeds that made it to the Elite Eight posted a 3-2 record in that round. Surprisingly, the two losers were the hottest of the five teams. The 1998 Rhode Island squad had the best record (22-8) among the five, followed by the 1986 Auburn squad (19-10). But they
both lost. At a mere 17-12, Alabama is more like the three Cinderellas who won in the round of eight.
Of the eight No. 8 seeds that have reached the Sweet 16, Alabama has the most in common with Villanova, the 1985 champion that sprung perhaps the biggest upset in tourney history when it downed Patrick Ewing’s vaunted Georgetown squad. Both Alabama and Villanova were low scoring (69.1 and 71.4 points per game, respectively), had low average victory margins (2.2 and 4.8 points), struggled in their last 10 games before the dance (six and five wins) and had teams and coaches with prior tourney experience. Could history be repeating itself in 20-year intervals?
The Blazers’ upset of Kentucky qualifies as a truly momentous tourney accomplishment. Only two other No. 9 seeds have upended top seeds in 43 tries – Boston College in 1994 and UTEP in 1992.
Obviously, there isn’t much history to judge by. UTEP lost in the Sweet 16, but Boston College won and the Blazers have much more in common with Boston College than with UTEP. Boston College, like UAB, was a first-year tourney team – first year for a majority of the current players – with a good but not great regular-season record. BC was 20-10, UAB was 20-9, and UTEP was 25-6. Boston College and UAB played closer games (BC’s victory margin was 9.0, UAB’s was 7.6 and UTEP’s was 10.7), and both teams used greater reliance on backcourt scoring (guards scored 53 percent of Boston College’s points and 52 percent of UAB’s).
If UAB gets by Kansas, it would have a shot at uncharted tourney territory. A No. 9 seed has never advanced to the Final Four in the 64-team era.
Oddly, UAB might not end up being the Cinderella story in the Elite Eight game if the Blazers make it that far. If Nevada beats Georgia Tech in the Sweet 16, UAB could find itself the unlikely favorite over the 10th-seeded Wolfpack.
