One of the most obvious problems with Kansas University heading into the NCAA Tournament was depth. A season-ending shoulder injury to sophomore power forward Wayne Simien gave head coach Roy Williams just two experienced reserves — Michael Lee and Bryant Nash.
While Lee has developed a solid offensive game to complement his suffocating defense, Nash still suffers from inconsistency. The junior swingman averaged six points and seven rebounds in a three-game stretch in the end of February and beginning of March before averaging just more than one point and two boards in the next three games.
Performance like that makes one wonder what if Simien hadn’t hurt his shoulder. Of course, while dreaming of a healthy Simien, one may as well dream that Drew Gooden had stuck around for his final season.
A starting five of Aaron Miles, Kirk Hinrich, Keith Langford, Nick Collison and Gooden for the second straight year, with Simien, Graves and Lee off the bench? The thought of that would leave many KU fans salivating at today’s match-up with Duke, especially considering the Blue Devils’ lack of an inside game.
To be fair, though, the Dukies had three important players — Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy and Jay (nee Jason) Williams — skip their final year of eligibility for the NBA. Add that trio to this year’s squad from Durham, N.C., and today’s Sweet 16 game doesn’t look quite as appetizing to KU fans.
First, it’s pretty obvious that this game wouldn’t be taking place in the Sweet 16. Even with the questionable calls made by the NCAA selection committee this year, two teams with this much talent would almost be assured of top-five rankings and a meeting in the national semifinals or title game.
Without getting into Bill James-ian territory about whose minutes would dwindle, whose three-point shooting would increase and who might not have a scholarship with the additions to each team, it’s pretty obvious the game would be a shootout.
Using some quick and dirty statistical projections based on career averages, injecting Gooden and a healthy Simien into this year’s team would increase the Jayhawks’ scoring average to about 115 points per game, along with 55 rebounds. The battle on the boards would be about even, but Duke’s offense would be even more potent with its trio of seniors, averaging about 120 points per game.
KU’s defense in the paint would be improved with the two big men, though, as Gooden and Simien would relegate Graves to the bench. The junior power forward would be much more useful as a reserve, where he could come in to spell the starters and play solid defense, as opposed to starting and picking up cheap fouls, forcing Williams to bring in Nash.
  6Sports video: Coaches K and W have history 6Sports video: Kansas and Duke clash in NCAA tournament once again
 Complete NCAA tournament coverage Other tournament stories Chat with the writers |
While Boozer would help Dahntay Jones and Shelden Williams down low against Collison, Gooden and Simien, the Duke forwards would still be outmanned and outgunned by Gooden’s athleticism and improvisation, Collison’s NBA-ready moves and consistency, and Simien’s power and touch.
The perimeter game is another story. KU has given up 69 more three-pointers than it has made this season on 35.6 percent shooting from behind the arc. While some of that is from being ahead so often — a trailing team shoots more three-pointers to try and get back in the game — the Jayhawks have shown suspect perimeter defense, which the Blue Devils would be sure to exploit.
Duke, which is shooting 36 percent from behind the three-point line, would be helped by Jay Williams, a career 37-percent three-point shooter, and Dunleavy, who hit better than 39 percent of his three-point attempts. The inside presence of Boozer would help divide the Jayhawks’ attention, opening up the perimeter for the two seniors, as well as J.J. Redick, Jones and Daniel Ewing.
While the Jayhawks would win the battle down low — Collison, Gooden and Simien would be too much for Boozer, Jones and Shelden Williams — Duke’s three-point shooting and guard play would more than make up the difference.
Not only would Jay Williams and Chris Duhon play solid defense on Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Miles, they’d probably score a few more points than the KU guards and their defense would make it tough for KU to get the ball inside to its strength. Add Dunleavy’s ability to shoot over Keith Langford, even if he couldn’t stop the KU sophomore’s drives into the lane, and the Blue Devils look like the team to come out on top.
Maybe it’s good that the “what if” game is played only in the mind.
