First things first, allow me a disclaimer, if you would? It has been a while since my last foray into the genre of web columns, and while many (if not all) of you feel zero need for an explanation, I’d still like to give one.
Yes, my last dabbling predicted Syracuse as the college basketball national champion prior to the beginning of the NCAA Tournament. Please remember that this selection had very little to do with actual basketball analysis and much more to do with connecting seemingly irrelevant pieces of information. Notably, my being in New Orleans (site of the 2003 Final Four) in October of 1995, the same month that Tom Glavine won the World Series MVP and the proximity of Syracuse to Glavine’s Massachusetts birthplace — a very circuitous conclusion which I chalked up to karma, and nothing more.
Very infrequently have I ever been labeled as “wise” without a three-letter suffix being attached, that being said, I’d like to attempt a more direct approach this time around. Bear with me.
As the college football season looms on the horizon, it’s time to rev up the prognostication machine with a level of tenacity usually reserved for the promotion of joint BenJen projects — though I would hope with more shelf-life than such trainwrecks.
Disclaimer #2 — I do not condone wagering, so it may be wise not to include my picks in your weekly parlay.
Now, a week-by-week look at selected games in the top conference in the nation.
Week 1 — Kansas State vs. California — BCA Classic, Kansas City — Aug. 23rd
Did Bill Snyder really schedule two Division I-AA opponents? Two? Sorry, looked ahead a little there. While Cal certainly can’t be confused with Massachusetts (see — KSU schedule, week 4) the fact is they return just two starters on a defense that surrendered nearly 400 yards per game in 2002 — so, they’ll resemble I-AA by the end of the day. Provided, that is, that Snyder’s boys can stay out of Aggieville brawls for a couple of weeks before kickoff. KSU 38, Cal 14
Week 2 — Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska — Lincoln — Aug. 30th
Sure, considering the name of the website, I should be writing about KU vs. Northwestern. Fine, last one with the ball wins. KU 42 NU 41. Now, the Cowboys have aspirations (and legitimately so) of ending the year in the Top 25. The ‘Huskers are coming off of their first losing conference record since 1968, don’t think Frank Solich was ecstatic with this opener. NU has lost just three home games in the last five seasons, but this is no way to welcome first-year defensive coordinator Bo Pelini. OSU’s big three of QB Josh Fields, RB Tatum Bell and All-American WR Rashaun Woods will be too much for the Blackshirts. OSU 28, NU 21
Week 3 — Oklahoma at Alabama — Tuscaloosa — Sept. 6th
The loss of All-SEC linebacker Brooks Daniels is a big blow to the Tide, but the real story will be sophomore Brodie Coyle’s attempt to get 2.5 seconds to set his feet and throw the ball against what will be a ridiculous OU defense. Mike Price, be glad you’re sitting at home. OU 21 ‘Bama 3.
Week 4 — SMU at Baylor — Waco — Sept. 13th
What? So Penn State visits Nebraska this Saturday, isn’t the Waco-Why-Are-We-Here? Bowl just slightly more amusing? To the victor, congratulations, you’ve just defeated a pretty good high school team. Baylor 10, SMU 3
Week 5 — Texas A&M at Virginia Tech — Blacksburg — Sept. 18th
Both teams have 12 days to prepare for this Thursday night battle. Proper imagery for a night game in Blacksburg — Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, minus Tina Turner. The defense should revert to typical Tech form with nine starters back and this is the same offense (even without Lee Suggs) that hung 45 points on Miami at Miami. Too many question marks for the Wrecking Crew defense. Coach Fran, good luck. VT 28, TAMU 17
Week 6 — Missouri at Kansas — Lawrence — Sept. 27th
Both teams should enter the Border War at 4-0. Brad Smith is as good as advertised. Bill Whittemore is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the nation, that’s the fault of last season’s injury and last season’s supporting cast, which wasn’t terribly supportive. This could be a shootout akin to KU vs. Northwestern. As bad as the Jayhawk defense was last season, MU’s wasn’t much better — worse, even, against the pass (113th nationally). Not a stretch to say there’s more raw receiving talent in Lawrence than there’s been since 1995. KU 38, MU 34 — reversal of 2001 score, series now at 52-51-9 in favor of KU.
Week 7 — Kansas State at Texas — Austin — Oct. 4th
Special teams, Wildcat fans, special teams. How you (and only you, well, maybe OU fans as well) longed for the spaz known as Martin Gramatica last fall in Manhattan as the ‘Horns escaped, 17-14. This year’s rematch falls the week before the Red River revelry in Dallas. As dominant as K-State’s running game is, and it’s punishing, a two-dimensional attack will be needed against UT. The last team to beat UT in Austin, KSU 35-17 in 1999. Not happening this year. UT 21, KSU 17
Week 8 — Texas vs. Oklahoma — Dallas — Oct. 11th
Deep Ellum, Greenville, two weekends ago — all three combined provide me with an excuse to head south and recapture my youth, the scene is strong medicine indeed. Oh, and Chris Simms will be in a Tampa Bay uniform about 1,500 miles away. Texas has dropped three straight here and the Sooner stranglehold on this rivalry is getting a bit monotonous. Mack Brown is having a Marv Levy-esque time with Bob Stoops, he’s certainly due and must be sick of the OU-dominance reminders. Edge still goes to Sooners. I don’t care if Chance Mock or Vincent Young is starting by week 8, the OU defense should be throttling people by now. OU 17, UT 14
Week 9 — Colorado at Kansas State — Manhattan — Oct. 18th
The Wildcats have a chance to avenge one of two conference losses from 2002, a 35-31 Buff win in Boulder. Pivotal game in the North division — you’re welcome for stating the obvious. One more gem — Wagner Field is a hornet’s nest for green quarterbacks and whatever unfortunate soul is chosen to lead CU into Manhattan — whether it be redshirt freshman James Cox, sophomore Joel Klatt — it will makes no difference as it will be a very long day. 50,000 people all wearing purple and acid washed jeans — bad enough, having them congregated in one place will be too disturbing. Colorado was dreadful against the run last season, 81st nationally. Darren Sproles has 100 yards by halftime. Wildcats roll. KSU 31, CU 20
Week 10 — Oklahoma St. at Texas A&M — College Station — Oct. 25
This game will be about bowl positioning for the Cowboys, a must-win with their next two games coming at Oklahoma and then hosting Texas. OSU was just 1-4 on the road last season, but junior QB Josh Fields won’t be fazed because he’s too battle-tested by now. Plus, Kyle Field simply isn’t as menacing as it used to be — three teams (nearly four, MU took them to triple OT) left College Station with a W last season. Similar argument to week 2, there’s too much offensively for the Aggies to deal with. OSU 35, ATM 28
Week 11 — Nebraska at Kansas — Lawrence — Nov. 8th
Indulge me here. Think of the pivotal events of the year 1968. Yes, Kansas beat Nebrasa … in football. That was the last time. 34 straight wins for NU, the streak ends here. Before you draft a letter to my employer demanding my termination, hear me out: This game is conveniently sandwiched between a Nebraska road trip to Austin and a visit by the Wildcats, the Jayhawks are deeper on the defensive side of the ball than they’ve been in eight years — helping to fortify them against a team that will run the ball 75 percent of the time. Besides, for God’s sake, they’re due. KU 28, NU 21
Week 12 — Texas A&M at Missouri — Columbia — Nov. 15th
I realize this is the same day as K-State at Nebraska. Fine, KSU by 10. Now, Mizzou has the chance for an eight-win season. They took the Aggies to triple OT at Kyle Field a year ago and that was a much more stout A&M defense than the 2003 edition figures to be. Brad Smith tops his previous season’s mark of 2,333 passing yards at some point during this game. The Tigers reach eight wins. MU 35, TAMU 31
Week 13 — Iowa State at Kansas — Lawrence — Nov. 22nd
The Cyclones personified the term “meltdown” a year ago — dropping six of their final seven games, including the home finale against UCONN which was capped off by a dreadful offensive performance against Boise State in the Humanitarian Bowl (15-of-42 passing for 130 yards). The schedule once again closes with Batan Death March of Texas, at revenge-minded Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, at Kansas, and at Missouri. To expect ISU to arrive in Lawrence with a clean bill of health and any level of momentum is simply ludicrous. This will be a much-improved Jayhawk defense and shouldn’t even resemble the unit that surrendered 45 points to the ‘Clones in the 2002 opener in Ames.
Now, I fully realize that I threw out a prediction of KU over Nebraska, giving Kansas seven wins to this point in the season. And I’m completely aware that a W to close the season against Iowa State would make eight victories in Lawrence for the first time since the second-to-last season of the Glen Mason era (actually, all will tell you that ’95 was his last in spirit). There’s more athleticism and quality depth on this team than there’s been in eight seasons. And if Bill Whittemore is still playing by the season finale — a sizable “if” considering he’s never lasted a season in junior college or college ball — then it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility for this program to FINALLY compete in the Big 12 Conference. KU 28, ISU 20
Week 14 — Nebraska at Colorado — Boulder — Nov. 28th
Typically, this would be a showdown to decide the Big 12 North champion — not this season. CU will come in with a conference mark of 5-2, Nebraska meanders to Boulder shouldering a 3-4 league record (and I’m never stepping foot in the state after a remark like that). The last two times NU entered Folsom Field there was a three-point overtime victory in 1999 followed by an absolute pasting in 2001 — 62-36 CU. I was actually laughing during that game.
The prospect of rolling up a 62 spot on Nebraska was simply unfathomable. Just as it’s incomprehensible for Big Red to stumble upon back-to-back losing conference records. But, remember, I’ve got Kansas winning eight games, so it’s very possible (follow this logic at all?) that Nebraska will arrive to this point as an underdog, yet salvage a .500 mark in the Big 12 with a season-ending victory. From 1998-2000 the average winning margin was just 2.3 points, this one will be similarly close. NU 21, CU 20
Big 12 Championship — Oklahoma vs. Kansas State — Kansas City — Dec. 6
A rematch of the 2000 title game, a 27-24 Sooner win. Kansas State sports a record of 13-1, the Sooners stand atop the polls at 13-0. According to the gods of the BCS, K-State obviously needs the victory to mathematically even entertain thoughts of the Sugar Bowl (see — predictably soft non-conference scheduling keeping the KSU BCS number predictably high). People everywhere will take the under on this game and they’ll be right. Again, I don’t condone wagering, just stating what will prove to be a fact. The returning prowess of Antonio Perkins will be the difference. OU advances to New Orleans and faces Michigan in the BCS Championship Game. OU 17, KSU 10.
There you have it. In my life I have been correct, about anything and everything, roughly 23 percent of the time when taking what I deem to be an analytical approach. So, just under a fourth of these predictions will turn out.
Now, to safeguard my selection of Oklahoma as a Sugar Bowl participant, I recall that the last time I was in the Crescent City that Barry Larkin had taken home the National League Most Valuable player award. He shares the same first name with a former head coach who was bestowed with the moniker of “Gunsmoke” by Ft. Worth Star-Telegram columnist Randy Galloway. That, of course was Barry Switzer. Switzer led the Sooners to three national title … I’ve developed a very anti-climatic social life.
