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Realignment Today: How nothing and something can be happening at the same time

During the past couple of weeks, I've been approached by dozens of people who have asked me why I haven't written much lately about conference realignment, or at least what's left of this latest round.

The reason is simple: Nothing's happening.

Now when I say nothing, I mean nothing of any substance. Sure Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 officials are constantly keeping one eye glued to the realignment landscape and, as any wise person knows, all of these groups (and more) are developing ever-evolving contingency plans, you know, just in case.

The Big 12 Conference is no different, which makes perfect sense considering the conference's stance is no different today than it was two weeks ago or two weeks before that or two months before that.

The league is happy with 10. It likes the round-robin scheduling set-up and enjoys watching the cash register ring and ding a little longer and louder when it's time to dish out money to its members.

Could this change? You bet. Could it change sometime soon? Sure. Has it changed at any level or in any way yet? Nope.

As anyone reading this update probably already knows, the one thing standing in the way of national conference stability and another mudslide is the Big Ten and it's intentions regarding the ACC. If the Big Ten moves to poach a couple more teams from the ACC — say, in this case, North Carolina and Georgia Tech — that almost certainly will trigger a response from the SEC and the Big 12. I'm not telling you anything you don't already know there, but it is worth noting because I feel strongly that it's the only way (at least right now) that more movement occurs.

Remember, at one point, when the Big 12 looked vulnerable and appeared to be falling apart, even those teams in the league that were on the outside looking in were working their butts off to line up a soft landing. I've been told that if the ball starts rolling, several ACC schools in that same position would do the same thing, perhaps even more aggressively. If that were to become the case and movement did happen, you could probably kiss the ACC goodbye. No hail mary. No last-minute save by league commissioner John Swofford. Just a bunch of new divisions and new rivalries and odd travel.

So if we all know that already, what's the point of this specific post? I guess it's to remind you — or perhaps caution you — that just because someone (even a very powerful someone) comes out and says something regarding realignment that does not mean anything's actually new.

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby's statements last week in Dallas about the league were interesting and certainly served as good conversation starters, but they weren't really anything new.

Here’s the complete recap from CBSsports.com's Dennis Dodd, who does a good job of looking at this thing from all sides. But for those of you not interested in sifting through the whole story, here's a quick look at the key quotes.

1.“We could be proactive, I think,” Bowlsby said.

2.“We continue to watch the landscape,” Bowlsby said. “Until we're persuaded that larger is better we feel pretty good about right where we are.”

3.“That's exactly one of the questions we'll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said.

What do all of those quotes have in common? Easy. They all continue to speak of a conference that's happy with its current set-up but wise enough (this time around) to not get caught off guard if something were to happen.

In the past few weeks, rumors have run wild about the Big 12 being in line to add four ACC schools and it just being a matter of which ones the league wants. There also has been more talk about KU and the Big Ten — I can tell you that no conversations have taken place on that front — and, of course, there continues to be discussion about the Big 12 being vulnerable and the Grant of Rights agreement not being as strong as many conference officials suggest.

The rumors will always be there. And a few of them will even be fun to read. Who doesn't like the idea of traveling to Miami or Tallahassee, Fl., in the middle of the Kansas winter?

The Big 12 athletic directors are scheduled to meet Jan. 28-29 in Dallas and what is to take place at those meetings varies depending upon whom you're talking to. Some in the league say realignment will be the top item on the agenda and that they believe it's time for the league to get serious about a plan to expand. Others, including multiple league sources whom I spoke with this week, say realignment will likely be kicked around — as it always is — but that issues such as scheduling, future championships and other financial matters will garner just as much attention.

Without being in the meetings and without those meetings taking place yet, it's hard to know exactly what will or even should happen. Perhaps we'll know more when they're behind us. Or perhaps it will be more of the same, with the Big 12 sitting pretty at 10 and the rest of the world around it debating whether the league should expand to 12, 14 or 16.

Either way, it looks as if the Big 12 has options. And, in this game, that's a good thing.

I'll leave you with a new installment of the sacred percentage wheel, which, based on my conversations with people around the league, gauges (at this point) how likely the Big 12 is to move to expand in the next several months:

  1. Big 12 stays at 10 - 64%
  2. Big 12 adds 2 - 18%
  3. Big 12 adds 4 - 14%
  4. Big 12 adds 6 - 3%
  5. Others poach Big 12 - 1%

Here's a look at a few other articles that might be of interest, at least to those of you who, like me, find all of this equal parts fascinating, maddening and twisted. Enjoy!

This report from The Washington Post brings us up to speed on the legal activity involving Maryland and the ACC: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/terrapins-insider/wp/2013/01/18/maryland-attorney-general-moves-to-dismiss-accs-lawsuit-against-maryland/

This update, from Orangebloods.com's Chip Brown, paints a picture of some more serious discussions at the AD's meetings next week: http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1463673

Here's another post on Bowlsby's comments from Dave Miller of the National Football Post, who says the Big 12 is on the clock: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/big-12-clock-conference-realignment-103000567--nfl.html

This report, from Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune, explores the possibility that the Big Ten might not stop expanding until it reaches 18 teams: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-05/sports/ct-spt-0106-northwestern-football--20130106_1_brian-arnfelt-big-ten-nu-fans

Finally, here's a nice way to keep track of all of realignment's moving pieces, put together by collegesportsinfo.com. Take a look when you've found a comfortable setting and have got your mind right: http://collegesportsinfo.com/conference-realignment-grid/

Comments

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Just for the purpose of crossing this bridge again and again and again...does anybody else suspect that perhaps Mizzou might have actually been in talks with the B1G under the agreement of "if you (Mizzou) leak this before the official announcement, we (the B1G) will deny this ever happened?"

actorman 1 year, 10 months ago

Wait a minute. Are you suggesting that Misuse would ever do something underhanded? I'm shocked, SHOCKED I tell you!

bradynsdad 1 year, 10 months ago

If we added Clemson, Florida state and two other schools on the east coast(Virginia or Ga.Tech) that would give is divisions again plus help ease west Virginia's travels. Why sit and wait? I know they are waiting on the Maryland outcome but it sounds as though if on league starts it the rest will help take down the ACC. Then there is no worry about a buyout clause. We are not doing ourselves any favors sitting on our hands.

texashawk10 1 year, 10 months ago

By waiting for the Maryland lawsuit to get settled, the Big 12 and SEC will save themselves the legal fees of this type of lawsuit. Why waste that money when the B1G is doing the dirty work for them.

Daniel Kennamore 1 year, 10 months ago

Exactly...I really disagree with Matt's point that Big 12 officials are not setting themselves up to be caught off-guard again.

kuguardgrl13 1 year, 10 months ago

We'd never get UVA (if that's what you mean by Virginia). They're a top tier school that likes to compare themselves to Harvard and Yale. Virginia Tech is a possibility. Not easy to get to for WVU though (4 hours or so). We'd have done better to get Maryland on that front. If the ACC folds we could try to get Pitt. They already have a strong rivalry with WVU from the Big East. That opens up Heinz Field and Pittsburgh, PA, in general to the Big 12. Also brings in decent football and pretty good basketball.

BillSelf4Prez 1 year, 10 months ago

You have no idea how bad i want Clemson and FSU in the Big12. HUGE teams to add.

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Now, to get back on topic and to the present...

What if the B1G wanted to expand its network into Texas? (Don't laugh - Texas has huge TV markets and is obviously a hotbed for football recruiting). Naturally that desire would make UT a target. BUT would the B1G absolutely have to have UT? Could adding KU and OU do the trick? Both schools have a massive alumni base in DFW, and KU (and perhaps OU too), has a huge alumni base in Houston. Both KU and OU are national brands in their respective strong sports.

Robert Brown 1 year, 10 months ago

The answer is no. All major schools from the Midwest and the south have huge alumni bases in Texas. In Houston I think the largest out of state alumni base is LSU. In Dallas it is probably OU or Arkansas. I looked up the alumni distribution for KU and there are 4000 in Houston and 6000 in Dallas. That is not going to influence any media rights fee.

Micky Baker 1 year, 10 months ago

Except, OU and Texas play football in Dallas every year as of late, Kansas travels good with basketball, and right over in Ft. Worth is this school named TCU and 45 miles South of Dallas is Baylor. Dallas is probably the biggest sports market for college sports right now, maybe even professional sports.

BYU said they'd come if we invited them, but I think that if we're going to do this, we have to get another school from the Eastern Region of sneak in a steal away Arkansas who would have far better chances at success in the Big 12 at this point.

The most likely teams that would come to the Big 12 though: Clemson, Florida State, BYU, and a whole slew of schools in the ACC if they lose a couple quickly, we could get just about anyone else from the ACC to the Big 12, but particularly Duke/UNC because of the basketball. There are literally dozens of possibilities though, but I think the Big 12 should get back to 12 schools ASAP. The TV deal could be the same, except it would be just more games which would mean revenues per game wouldn't have to go down much if at all.

actorman 1 year, 10 months ago

It would actually mean FEWER games if the Big XII went back to 12 teams, not more games. Assuming it was set up the same way as before (and there's no reason to believe otherwise), it would mean each team had 16 conference basketball games and 8 conference football games, compared to 18 and 9, which is what it is now. (Of course that would at least partly be mitigated by adding back in a conference championship in football.)

konzahawk 1 year, 10 months ago

OU is not AAU. The Big Ten will not waive this requirement for any school other than Notre Dame.

ltownatrain 1 year, 10 months ago

Nebraska had it when they joined it was only after they joined it was pulled. Why does everyone always try to point out Nebraska.

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Ah, I was mistakenly thinking that they were.

oldalum 1 year, 10 months ago

They were at the time they applied, but lost it before they actually joined.

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Sorry, I was referring to OU. I can see how that would be ambiguous with the way this thread developed.

BainDread 1 year, 10 months ago

I believe Nebraska was an AAU school when the Big Ten invited them, then they lost their AAU status right about the same time they formally joined the league.

Jack Joiner 1 year, 10 months ago

Probably all kinds of converstations going on with other schools that we won't here about.

actorman 1 year, 10 months ago

But the question is, would we HEAR about it? (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

Kevin Crook 1 year, 10 months ago

It's time for people to stop waxing nostalgic about old rivals and face the facts that the only constant is change. The trend looks like there will be maybe three or four huge conferences. I for one would love to see some new blood. No offense, but I'm a little sick of the same teams over and over every year. In terms of dealing with the KSU fans in Kansas, I'd also love to not have to associate with them at all anymore.

jgkojak 1 year, 10 months ago

If Virginia goes anywhere, its the Big 10 - VA has extremely prestigious academics and would not sully itself with either the B12 or the SEC.

There are basically 8 ACC teams in play - w/percent chances if something happens: FSU --> 80% B12, 20% SEC (Florida has reportedly been loosening up on its objections) Clemson --> 80% B12, 20% ACC (the SEC doesn't want 'em) Ga Tech --> 50% ACC, 30% B10, 20% B12 Miami --> 80% ACC, 20% B12 UNC --> 67% ACC, 33% B10 VA --> 75% ACC, 25% B10 NC State --> 60% ACC, 40% SEC VA Tech --> 60%ACC, 40% SEC

Basically - I see a chance the B10 targets UNC and Virginia or maybe Ga Tech (Virginia and UNC would keep the B10 contiguous, which is actually important to them). I just don't see UNC leaving its incredibly favorable travel to go to yet another conference where their football team gets beat up every week. So assuming the B10 keeps its hands off...

The SEC would have to target Va Tech and NC State, who would leave for the same reasons TX A&M left. I think this is the more likely move. There is an outside chance they go for FSU instead, mainly as a block to the B12.

If the SEC moves and Va Tech and NC State accept, that would be the time for the B12 to make an offer - I'm guessing we'd go after 4 - FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech and Miami - with Ga Tech and Miami a bit of a package deal.

I'm guessing the ACC would swallow some of the Big East remnants and allow 4 other non-football participants (to go with ND) and UConn to come in to balance the league.

Note, if UNC turns down the B10, this is when KS comes into play when the grant of rights ends.

texashawk10 1 year, 10 months ago

The B1G isn't as interested in UVA because UVA doesn't add a big TV market the B1G won't already have foothold in. UNC adds two big markets, and GT adds a huge markets. If the B1G goes beyond 16, then UVA becomes attractive to add.

kuguardgrl13 1 year, 10 months ago

Don't forget that Pitt is supposed to join the ACC this year. Would the B1G snatch them up to get more of the Pennsylvania market, or can WVU convince their former rival to come our way? Pitt would be a good add for us. Heinz field, PA TV market, already rivals with WVU, PGH airport for travel to Pitt or WVU, pretty good academics including an excellent medicine program.

Micky Baker 1 year, 10 months ago

Well, if Pitt were to come to the Big 12 rather than the ACC, then Syracuse might wanna change their minds too. It's really fluid. Not to mention Connecticut, and get some teams nearer WV so that they have good visiting crowds to sell out games in football, or at least get a solid crowd at football games which Syracuse and Pitt do a good job of. I also believe that at some point ND is going to want to drop their Independent Status, because with bigger conferences, it will be harder for ND to schedule quality teams to play against unless the NCAA expanded to 14 games a year.

Chris1955 1 year, 10 months ago

I can see a scenrio where Jim Delaney puts out a verbal "B1G TEN teams will no longer schedule Norte Dame beyond the expiration of the currently scheduled future games, unless ND joins the B1G TEN". I think ND would have a difficult time replacing Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan on an annual basis, which would affect the ND TV dollars.

Micky Baker 1 year, 10 months ago

I can't really see Michigan not scheduling ND because of their Number 1 vs Number 2 all time win status all time. The others would be more difficult and ND could probably still get teams like Stanford or USC as long as the PAC 12 stays at 12 and doesn't grow. It's the teams from the conference that grow to 14, 16, or 18 that would have fewer out of conference games to schedule unless the NCAA extends the season, which they should do any way because of the gap between the final games and the Bowl Season.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

Pitt is low on the totem pole right now. B1G wants nothing to do with PItt and B1G doesn't need Pitt when they already have Penn State. In order of preference for the Big 12 would be something like this.

1a) FSU-They won't come without regional partners though

1b)Miami-FSU has more power, but together FSU and Miami make a great duo and gets you in Florida. With that said, it doesn't make much sense for them to come without two more schools in their neck of the woods.

2) For any combination of the two above to happen any one of these schools would be next on the Big 12 list, Clemson, GT, VT, and NC State.

3) If none of those schools are coming or going to another conference and the ACC lives than Louisville and Pitt are ruled out.

4) If scenario above happens than we are currently where we sit now with conference realighnment and we are looking at schools like Cincy, Memphis, BYU, etc. which doesn't make sense at all.

IMO, Big 12 needs to get FSU, Miami, Clemson and any one of the Final 3 of NC State, VT, and or GT and hold at 14. You put the full court press back on ND to try and get up to 15 and then you add Louisville for the 16th for basketball branding.

bradynsdad 1 year, 10 months ago

True. I don't buy for a second that everyone is "comfortable". Meanwhile in the real world every athletic director in the room is keeping an eye on the other to see if they show any tell tell signs that their school might be the next to jump ship. Wake up BIG12!! SEC buyout clause is $0 with a one day notice! I've never heard of anyone getting stronger by sitting on a couch. Kiss a couple of these ACC schools in the ear and let's get into shape!!!

KANSTUCKY 1 year, 10 months ago

Buck an ear, Mount an ear. Keep it simple for them over in them thar hills.

BillSelf4Prez 1 year, 10 months ago

I want Clemson and FSU in the Big12 BAD!

Robert Brown 1 year, 10 months ago

The Orangeblood article was very good because looked at this from a strategic point of view. They obviously have some good sources. It is hard for me to imagine the Big 12 taking 4-6 teams but maybe I am still thinking that the old Big 12 is still making decisions for the conference. Remember Bowlsby was one of the power brokers in the PAC 12 when they tried to take 6 Big 12 schools a few years ago, so maybe he can architect a similar bold vision for the Big12.

Kyle Sybesma 1 year, 10 months ago

Agreed. I thought it was good too. I do find it interesting at the begining and in other orangeblood articles that Texas really does feel as though it is the Longhorn Conference plus 9. No wonder A&M wanted to leave on their own. They've been putting up with their crap for decades.

Eric Baker 1 year, 10 months ago

Matt, can you confirm what I've been hearing recently about Big 12 schools receiving, on average because of the new media deal, more money per program than any other conference?

Matt Tait 1 year, 10 months ago

According to numbers from Forbes magazine, the Big 12 came in fifth overall in terms of total haul, but, because the league has just 10 members, the Big 12 came in on top in terms of payout amount per school.

I think the number was $26.2 million per school. The Big Ten and Pac-12 both were above $25 million per school, even though they have more members.

Robert Brown 1 year, 10 months ago

Which means that if the Big 12 adds six schools, the value of all media rights will have to increase by about $160M per year just to break even. That's alot which make me wonder if the Big 12 would stop at adding two more teams. Once you get past Florida State (and maybe Clemson or Ga Tech), the added value of the other schools out there diminishes rapidly.

Matt Tait 1 year, 10 months ago

That, unfortunately, is what this is all about: Money.

If a TV contract showed up that would keep the per-member numbers where they are even after adding four teams, I think the league would be way more aggressive in finding those four teams.

But it remains to be seen if that contract is out there or will come and therein lies the risk. Why take a pay cut if you don't have to?

ltownatrain 1 year, 10 months ago

Your right on here. I think most members would suck up losing a little of their payout to bring in an FSU and Clemson because they definitely add strength to the conference and could later on down the road add more money to overall payouts but outside of those two no one else bring much to the table...at least no one else really interested in the Big 12.

Ryan Gerstner 1 year, 10 months ago

Yeah, but the Big 12 TV deal is fresh. Big Ten is about to get a gargantuan payday ($30 mil for tier I alone is the rumor). And now that the Big 10 has a lot of the startup costs of the BTN out of the way, that thing will literally just print money especially with the addition of Rutgers and Maryland, which get you into huge TV markets.

So while the Big 12 is pretty much capped out on what we can earn, the Big Ten is about to get major financial separation again, which is part of what led to the instability in the Big 12 in the first place.

The problem with the Big 12 is you don't have 10 like minded universities focused on the same goal. You have 3 flagships, 1 flagship with weak academics, 4 ag schools, and 2 private/religious schools. Only 3 AAU institutions in the league and only about 1/3 of the population of the other power leagues. If KU has the opportunity to get out of this league, we need to get the heck out even if we have to take less money to do so. The Big 12 is living on borrowed time. This league has a 10-15 year life horizon rather than 100 yr.+ life horizons of the other 3 power leagues.

JayDocMD 1 year, 10 months ago

For the sake of the long term survival of the Big 12, I'm hoping that there is more going on than what is being said. I just don't think it's reasonable to think that a "power conference" can sit at 10 members if everyone else expands to 14 or 16 (or beyond?)

I think a school like Oklahoma sees the success of A&M's move to the SEC and starts to position themselves for a similar move in 8-10 years. I know a lot can change in that period of time, but this grant of rights won't last forever and the moves that are made now will impact the viability of this conference for the next 25 years.

Hopefully everyone is just waiting to see what happens with the Maryland lawsuit. If they escape tthe ACC without too much financial damage, we need to have lined up schools like Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami and/or FSU to come on board. If those type of discussions aren't taking place right now, I believe this current grant of rights agreement will be the last.

ltownatrain 1 year, 10 months ago

KU would not return to anything like the MO Valley. If OU and UT leave the conference would likely start to fall apart completely. While KU may not be a big dog in all this talk and some people overvalue KU, it seems to me that KU's AAU status and national brand do have some bargaining power if the Big 12 were to go under and would likely have a place at the table in a Big 10 or PAC 12 as the final team to round out a 16 or 18 team conference.

jgkojak 1 year, 10 months ago

The B8/B12 made a series of mistakes that led us to where we are. The keys:

1) 1990: Denying Arkansas membership. Arkansas wanted into the B8 in 1990 (yes, to get away from Texas in the SW Conference). Had we added Arkansas, its likely they'd still be with us. Certainly that leads to:

2) 1996: Baylor Adding Baylor was a political decision to appease Ann Richards, the Gov of Texas (much as I love her). Had we had Arkansas, we would only have needed A&M, TX and TTCH, meaning the balance of power would very much be out of Texas and the old SW Conf (Arkansas, remember, hates Texas as much as we do). I don't think this saves Nebraska and Colorado from leaving when they did, but I think it saves Mizzou.

3) 1996: BYU: Had Baylor not been pushed, BYU was the next on the list. This would have given the B12 a national power to counter Texas.

Any one or combination of these probably saves the B12 from any danger of being in the position its in now.

Robert Brock 1 year, 10 months ago

Re Baylor -- Ann Richards wasn't the key figure promoting Baylor; rather, it was Bob Bullock, the Lieutenant Governor (who was a powerful politico at the time).

Steve Hillyer 1 year, 10 months ago

Matt You wrote there has been more talk recently of KU and the Big Ten coming together, where is this talk originating? Other than the Rivals article, Omaha World Herald which were a couple of months ago I haven't read anything other than twitter blog stuff which I don't put much stock in.

Matt Tait 1 year, 10 months ago

Nowhere legit. Just acknowledging that it's one of the many ridiculous things being kicked around and, more importantly, letting you all know that there's been no communication there.

B0B 1 year, 10 months ago

With all due respect, if there was would they tell you? Nope. I think you are right, just saying...

Matt Tait 1 year, 10 months ago

I understand what you're saying, but in this case, I do think I would know. Probably a moot point either way.

Robert Brown 1 year, 10 months ago

In my view, the only reason that KU is mentioned as a potential Big 10 target is because it meets the first screening criteria and that is AAU status. People who write about the topic of Big 10 expansion usually come up with a list of candidates start by looking at all AAU schools west of the Rockies that currently play in a major conference. That list is pretty short. It's a bunch of ACC schools and UT, Iowa State and Kansas. From there, the positives and negative of each are cited and KU is always at the bottom of this list in terms of priority because it is not in a large growing population center, it has bad football, and it has signed a grant of rights. Matt: your 1% on the Percentage Wheel is probably about right-- it might be a little high!

BainDread 1 year, 10 months ago

Did you mean west of the Appalacians? Or perhaps east of the Rockies?

David Gisi 1 year, 10 months ago

If I am not mistaken, the Kansas side of metro KC has been one of the fastest growing population centers in the country for a few years. 25 years ago Olathe had a population of 10-15,000 and Lenexa was about 5-6,000. I believe Olathe surpassed Topeka as the 3rd largest city in Kansas with well over 100,000 people now. That doesn't include the substantial growth in the last 10-12 years to the north on the Kansas side around the Speedway. All within about 30 mins of KU campus, maybe less as the highway speed limits keep going up! Not that I think that vaults KU to the top of the B1G wish list or anything, nor does it compare to some of the East coast markets. But it is much more significant than you are giving credit for.

Ryan Gerstner 1 year, 10 months ago

No doubt Johnson County is growing at a decent clip, but it's still slow growth relative to larger markets. Austin, TX adds 5 times as many people as the entire KC metro every year, for example, and that's a smaller market than KC. KC is a nice market that is growing; we just need to figure out how to ramp up our growth rate. We need to find our next Fortune 500 company because that could make a huge difference in the growth rate because not only do you get the jobs that would add, but all the ancillary companies that want to be close by.

Steve Reigle 1 year, 10 months ago

So would an 18-team conference comprise two divisions, each of which play regular season games against only the other members of their division, then the division winners play a championship game? Or maybe in other than football there would be a tournament of the top three or four teams from each division? Just some random thoughts.

ltownatrain 1 year, 10 months ago

I would guess that in football they would have two round robin divisions and a title game or something crazy like 8 division games and one cross division rivalry plus title game. For basketball it would likely be set up the same way the Big East had it.

milehighhawk 1 year, 10 months ago

I'm a little surprised to learn Matt thinks there's a greater than 40% chance the B12 will add teams in the next 3-6 months.

Matt Tait 1 year, 10 months ago

Yeah, my bad. I don't necessarily think that's true. I just reworded it to give you a clearer picture of what we're trying to track. It now reads:

I'll leave you with a new installment of the sacred percentage wheel, which, based on my conversations with people around the league, gauges (at this point) how likely the Big 12 is to move to expand in the next several months:

Sorry for the confusion. Didn't mean to startle you!

kuguardgrl13 1 year, 10 months ago

Since we're talking so much about ACC schools...

Pitt is about ready to leave the Big East and head into the ACC. They probably didn't consider this when the deal was signed, but they're going from one failing conference to another. Their old rival WVU is now in the Big 12 as is TCU who at one point was going to the Big East. Does Pitt really want to head into the mess that is the ACC should Maryland get out somewhat unscathed? Probably not. That means they will probably look elsewhere. As an AAU school, the SEC is out. The culture is completely wrong. Big 12 and B1G are much better fits. B1G is AAU strong and brings Pitt and Penn State back together after ages apart. Although maybe Pitt wants to keep the distance there. The Big 12 has former rival WVU. For us, Pitt brings more market in the northeast, Heinz Field (Pitt's home as well as the Steelers) and the PGH airport, AAU status and decent academics all around, and a renowned med school and hospital system (really good for KU Med to partner with). They also have decent football and pretty good basketball. Pittsburgh is also home to the new Consol Energy Center. You may all remember a few years back when the Pittsburgh Penguins were being courted to play in the Sprint Center. Well, Pittsburgh and Mario Lemieux convinced them to stay with the Consol Energy Center. Pitt doesn't play there normally (it's the home of Duquesne University), but it's possible a deal could be worked out much like KU and the Sprint Center. But of course I'm only a student who can speculate.

Ironcity 1 year, 10 months ago

While they do play a couple of games at Consol Energy Center, Duquesne plays its home games at the Palumbo Center.

Jim Jackson 1 year, 10 months ago

Latech and NIU have as much a shot at joining the Big 12 as Harvard and Yale do.

I think we should add BYU and FSU. I think it was silly to let ACC get Louisville.

If not those 2 add SMU, they have smokin hot girls and a wealthy alumni base. Lol

texashawk10 1 year, 10 months ago

Matt, what's your gut feeling on Duke and Wake Forest and where those two schools end up when the ACC implodes?

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

Duke will be wherever UNC is. UNC privately has said that UNC and Duke stick together. Wake Forest is screwed!

Matt Tait 1 year, 10 months ago

Wake, I would think, would have the revamped, less-impressive Big East written all over them.

Duke's a different story and I think even though they'd be in a dangerous spot, they would have options

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

I agree, but no matter how much fans hate each other in the Duke/UNC rivalry down here in the Carolinas, UNC IMO isn't going anywhere without Duke.

UNC is definitely in a power of position here and they know that. I think behind the scenes Duke and UNC have a very good relationship and they understand the scope of what is going on. They (Duke and UNC) are either going to save the ACC or they will then look at their options. B1G doesn't want Duke, but UNC wants them. SEC wants UNC and Duke.

With that said, I think ACC prevails and UNC and Duke stay together or ACC falls apart and they both end up in SEC. Either scenario really doesn't hurt them academically, but the SEC would help them financially and athletically.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

A couple of things from reading the posts:

1) Big 12 will never get Virginia. Their academics, AAU standing, and geography don't fit Big 12. Big 10 Network currently is not in Virginia or Maryland (D.C.) and that is why Big 10 went after Maryland and are currently courting Virginia. From the rumorville I have read, Vriginia has filed for the application.

2) Big 10 wants UNC, but it's not mutual. Big 10 if can't get UNC will go after GT and BC in that order to get up to 16 and stop for now.

3) SEC wants UNC and is willing to take Duke to broaden their 'Basketball Branding". SEC doesn't want Miami, FSU, GT or Clemson and would consider NC State if it can't get UNC. VT is another option to get into Virginia. Then again it could be a front to fool the Big 12 again, which would not surprise me in the least.

4) On that final note in #3 above, when FSU reached out to Big 10, but Big 10 said no thanks, Big 12 officials finally got nervous again.

5) Big 12 may get up to 12 again, but FSU doesn't want to come without regional partners like Miami, Clemoson and any combination of GT, VT, and NC State. I think if Big 12 is able to accomplish anything it goes to 14 beause of FSU's request.

Matt Tait 1 year, 10 months ago

Nice summary. Maybe I should've used that! I like letting everyone read what's out there and figure this all out on their own, though. At least figure it out as much as anyone can.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

Matt, have you heard about the 60 Million deal for Miami and FSU to come to Big 12 and FOX would broadcast the CCG? I think that is great, but if FSU still wants it's regional partners and FOX so desperately wants into the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and or Virginia markets...why wouldn't FOX want to figure this out quickly and swiftly an not let ESPN come in from the backside and squander the deal?

Robert Brown 1 year, 10 months ago

An additional $60M per year at least does not dilute the contract. Currently, according to Matt, the Big 12 gets $26.2M per school or $262M per year as a conference. Add $60M and you get $322 per conference, but now with 12 schools and the total per school is $26.8M per school which is a little higher and would probably justify bringing the two teams in, but I bet that the current schools would expect more money if they expand and hold a championship game. But this would certainly justify the additional of two schools.

William Weissbeck 1 year, 10 months ago

OK, now with bowl season over, please someone tell me again why not adding Louisville and letting A&M go were good things? Granted they still have to play the games, but the scouting sources have A&M cleaning UT and OU's clocks on recruiting. And looking on the BB side of the ledger ND and Louisville to the ACC doesn't threaten KU and the Big 12 how? I see a big ESPN BB contract in the future that will make the ACC financially stable. Just like the Big 12, they only need two big dogs at the top of the FB world to survive. Florida State is one. They've got Louisville, Miami and Tech to compete for the other spot. We may now have to rely on Baylor to be our saviour?

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

I agree with you about Louisville. I still think they should have added the Cardinals to get to 11 and the conference would still be in the same current position they are.

However, most point to the extra 2 million per school you would lose by cutting the pie to Louisville. My thought is that 2 million is short-term thinking. Yes the GOR (Grant of Rights) is for the next 13 years, but the conference and it's executives should not be thinking about the next 13 years....they need to be thinking about the next 40 to 50 years and possibly the next century with these billion dollar contracts.

With that said, money always fuddles things up, but there are "People" (Not sure who) from different Universities in the conference that definitely feel that they missed out on Louisville.

With the so-called "Miss" with Lousivlle to the ACC temporarily and FSU's flirtation with the B1G last month (Nothing serious from B1G), Big 12 officials have just now started being "Proactive".

That's what I find humerous. Ya think? Ya think it's now time to be "Proactive"? ACC is hot for the picking right now and Fox is offering Miami and FSU 60 million to come to Big 12 supposedly. I say give FSU their wish of two more schools and FOX figure out the semantics to make it work. FOX wants in those markets so give up a little in the financial department to make it work. Simple business economics if you ask me. If Fox wants it that badly they will make it work. Concede some concessions in the short-term to make it "Big" in the long-run. If the Big 12, FOX, and FSU can figure this out then it's going to be very lucrative.

texashawk10 1 year, 10 months ago

Major conference realignment happens about once a decade. In the late 70's, the PAC 8 expandeed by adding Arizona and Arizona St. A little over 10 years later, the Big East added football, the SEC added Arkansas and South Carolina, the Big 10 added Penn St., and the SWC folded and the Big 12 was formed. Fast forward almost a decade and the ACC raided the Big East, finally fast forward again and we have the Big 12 getting raided by multiple conferences. It would to be able to have stability for as long as you suggest, but the reality is that for the past 4 decades, conference realignment has popped up roughly once a decade and that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.

jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

BigManU,

Hypothesis time again.

Louisville, in red, red, red, state Kentucky, was apparently farmed to the ACC to make sure it didn't go to the Big Ten, or get further embroiled in the political economy of the blue, blue, blue Big East states in the northeast.

Remember, Kentucky is the largest auto assembly state in the USA. Thus it has complicated ties to both the Big Three in Big Ten country and to Japanese and German companies gaining greater and greater influence through the American southeast.

I believe Louisville was sent tot he ACC by the state of Kentucky for the same reason Texas A&M was sent to the SEC by the state of Texas. The state of Texas wanted political economic influence in two regional alliances of states: the Big 12 AND the SEC. Kentucky wanted Kentucky wanted political economic in two regional alliances of states, also: the ACC and SEC.

Kentucky is a hard red state.

I suspect Senator McConnell can deliver the state of Kentucky, and even UK, into the Northeast Super Corridor process any time proponents of that corridor decide to make their move again, based on his power derived from his longevity in the Senate. Moving Louisville into the ACC gives Kentucky and McConnell some voting power in what the ACC does. And what the ACC does about Super Corridor extention from West Virginia through Virginia, is strategically and tactically significant. Just as it is significant in issues of running the gas pipe up the eastern seaboard from Florida. Its got to go through ACC country. And its supposed to hook up eventually with the Northeast Super Corridor extention. Louisville gives the red state of Kentucky a vote in what goes on in the Mid Atlantic states and their ACC conference alliance.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

Jaybate, with all due respect and I love ya, I don't agree with any of that. In terms of TV markets and Geography nobody wants the state of Kentucky. UK has a home in the SEC so they were never worried in the least about losing their position because the SEC is a Top 2 conference with expanding growth because of their future SEC Network.

Louisville on the other hand is a commuter school, not the greatest academically, not an AAU affiliate (Big 10 would have never considered them anyway) and even though IMO they do have potential in football, an excellent athletic department, and a Top 10 Branding in Basketball...Louisville is not coveted by many and they will never share the same conference as UK.

ACC tried to show strength to their "Football Schools" by the additions of Pitt, Syracuse and Louisville, but I don't think that worked at all in the eyes of the Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, and VT.

If Fox and Big 12 can get their act together they can get their "Football Schools" they want.

It's pretty simple if you ask me:

1) B1G covets TV markets-They didn't have New Jersey/New York so they get Rutgers. They didn't have D.C. area so they get Maryland. They don't have Virginia so they currently are going after Virginia.

All 3 of those schools meet every criteria of the B1G's academic and AAU standards. That is why B1G is going after UNC. If that doesn't happen they will take the Atlanta and AAU affiliate GT. If that doesn't work they will take the Boston market and the AAU affiliate BC.

B1G has money, academics, markets, and in due time will have the athletics to go with it football wise.

2)SEC covets markets as well, but in a different manner. Sure they are starting their SEC Network in a couple of years, but they also want contiguous states to help the SEC Branding. SEC has Football, money, and plenty of potential. What they don't have is academics and branding in basketball which they could get in Duke/UNC.

3) Big 12 covets "Football". That may sound strange, but the Big 12 needs to expand their football profile. The ACC doesn't covet Football because the conference is run by basketball powers Duke/UNC. The Big 12 needs to sweep up the rest of the Football centric Universities from the ACC to keep their 25 percent of the pie not just for the next 13 years (That is solidified), but for the next century.

Big 12 has money, athletics (Could be more with ACC football schools), and some academics. Big 12 needs to expand their geographic branding based on football. Hopefully, Fox will help the conference out with that need. Texas is such a drain on all of this though. Hopefully, Bowlsby doesn't cave to the Texas demands.

I appreciate the conspiracy theory, but I am not buying it! It's good entertainment though. Have a good one buddy.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

I agree! That's why I said they have some academics because as a whole they aren't very good. There are a couple of schools that are good academically.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

I think you should be asking yourself that question. 4 posts above it clearly says, "I agree" by me and 5 posts above it clearly says "I disagree" by you. Hmmmm

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

One Correction: Boston College is not AAU. I just looked up! I thought they were but I guess not.

Ryan Gerstner 1 year, 10 months ago

I can tell you're a newbie when it comes to this stuff. ACC has a new TV deal and it's by far the smallest per team of all the conferences. That's one of the reasons that league is teetering on the edge of survival and pretty much every one of their schools is talking to another league. When it comes to TV contracts, 70-80% of the money is football money so that's why football matters so much. Where basketball comes into play is that it's valuable content for leagues that have a conference network, which neither the Big 12 or ACC have. The individual matchups don't mean as much, but you need to have enough attractive content that you can drive subscriptions. So it doesn't matter if people are watching or not because you're in large markets where you have a lot of subscriptions. Football, on the other hand, is a far more watched sport, which is why those national telecasts are so important and networks pay so much to have them.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

Miami and FSU accountants laugh in your face.

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

No, Miami and FSU laugh in your face about being "Stable". If FOX wants in that area they will make it lucrative enough for it to happen. If they don't then ESPN prevails, ACC survives, and Big 12 stays at 10 like you suggest.

HawksWin 1 year, 10 months ago

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DB Ashton 1 year, 10 months ago

I'm not even slightly up-to-date and I deplore all these dollar-driven shifts away from traditional rivalries and geographical/educational affinities. But I've been on the Arkansas bandwagon since the Big 7, I have gut feeling Oklahoma and Texas will ultimately settle in the west and I've long believed KU and MU would be more naturally placed in what was the Big 10. Is it not nuts to contemplate a traveling circus that might include the likes of BYU, Texas, Florida State and West Virginia? Is this not obviously and simply absurd? Even dismissing the academic interests of the athletes, the expense, and the university's alleged mission -- clearly no longer of interest to almost anyone?

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

I just hope that KU and OSU can stay in the same conference. This is my favorite basketball rivalry.

Kevin Huffman 1 year, 10 months ago

Bill Self, maybe? Although EASILY the place that his teams have struggled most (Stillwater)! :(

actorman 1 year, 10 months ago

I'm with you, sandy. The whole thing is nauseating. But sadly, I'm also with McNeil. We covered all this three years ago, and it ain't gonna change.

Matt summed it up beautifully: "Here's a look at a few other articles that might be of interest, at least to those of you who, like me, find all of this equal parts fascinating, maddening and twisted."

jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

"Hypothesis Time Again in the jaybate School of Real Athletik Politik and Economik"

First, regardless of where Notre Dame sides in the short term, ND remains a wild card with a football team that could yet jump anywhere at a moment's notice anytime to achieve maximum political economic benefit for the school and the church it is affiliated with.

Why?

Notre Dame is unbelievably crucial in this particular issue of political economy, because it wields large political influence in Indiana, the lone red state in the Big Ten. Indiana is the only political economic chink in the Big Ten alliance of states. And it is a red state in a sea of blue, through which a lateral of the eventual Northeast Super Corridor can be routed directly to Lake Michigan (from the Ohio Valley) and into the state of Michigan, where huge monies are still being spent by TOKWVEA (Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/West Virginia Energy Alliance) in pursuit of regime change.

Both red and blue axes of private oligarchy are apparently fighting hard to land Notre Dame and its ally the Catholic Church in this region of the country.

Nothing is settled about Notre Dame yet IMHO. It waits to see who is going to be the most powerful axis of private oligarchy before it chooses sides both in conference and in political alignment vis a vis the laying of the 21st Century North American energy and distribution infrastructure. Why does it care about this sort of thing? For the same reason all other large players do. Whoever privatizes control of the North American energy and distribution infrastructure will become indefinitely the king of North America. You don't want to be on the wrong side of the king.

I have said since the election, when Virginia went blue, and well before anyone was mentioning Virginia as a Big Ten prospect, that the Big Ten would make a big play for Virginia for sure. The only way to completely block the Northeast Super Corridor extension in to mid eastern seaboard, and to completely stonewall the northerly extension of the eastern seaboard gas pipe, which already extends from from Grand Bahamas to south Florida, and needs to go up the eastern seaboard to eventually connect up with the Northeast Super Corridor Extension, is for the Big Ten states to take Virginia into regional alliance permanently. Part of doing that is to take Virginia's major university as a pork conduit. If the Big Ten does this, then this cuts off the Northeast Super Corridor's passage from West Virginia through Virginia to east coast ports in the mid atlantic states, and to connecting up with the gas pipe out of Florida.

sphealey 1 year, 10 months ago

But what about the new unit of currency to replace the dollar, the Jaymero? Where does THAT fit in?!? You're not telling us everything - there's a secret component to this deal!!!

jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

But Virginia is a very tough get. Its traditions and political independence depend largely on staying in the ACC alliance of states unless the Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/West Virginia Energy Alliance (TOKWVEA) can drive a wedge into the ACC states by adding Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson and NC State and sooner, or later, Virginia. These are the teams the Big 12 has to add to create a viable eastern time zone footprint necessary to hold WVU, and these are the states the TOKWVEA has to have regime change in in order to impose their control on the 21st Century energy and distribution corridor both axes of private oligarchy--the red and the blue--are competing for private control of.

Bowlsby's position is this. We are happy at 10, but want to expand.

Sure. That's why it still calls itself the Big 12. That's why the Big 12 expanded to 12 in the first place. Umm, Bowlsby has to talk out of both sides of his mouth while the powers that be figure out whether to keep stalling for a Republican President, or get out their check books and start buying universities and states now to create an eastern time zone footprint.

Put another way, Bowlsby's words appear to be a way of saying that right now the TOKWVEA will stand pat and wait for the next Presidential election to really start throwing its weight around again, or it will go to war right now, if anyone takes further steps to make its life more difficult down the road.

And remember that all of this is unfolding during the run-up to a potentially massive war in the Middle East. A massive war in the Middle East, i.e., the covert war in Syria erupting first into an Iranian War, and then into a central Asian war for the Caspian Basin and the Stans, also. A major war on this scale could force the reds and the blues in private oligarchy to have to "cooperate" in controlling the creation and formation of the North American energy and distribution super corridor that would become imperative for fighting such a war. But if peaceful solutions are found to Iran and the Caspian Basin, then the reds and the blues will go back to fighting each other tooth and nail to see who gets to control the privatization of energy and distribution infrastructures in North America.

So: both red and blue axes of private oligarchy have to sort out when and how big the war in the Middle East is going to be before they can get back to domestic issues of who gets to control the privatized energy and distribution infrastructure, and in turn which states, and their universities, have to be realigned in order for one side, or the other to prevail.

So: conference expansion hangs in limbo with a lot of contingencies being negotiated behind the scenes.

Next.

jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

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jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

There is huge money and power at stake in this realignment debate.

HUUUUUUGE!

jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

And I didn't use one bit of foul language. :-)

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Missed it...an 8 minute window is hard to hit.

jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

Let me restate what I said about McNeil's POV perhaps in a way more acceptable to the online editor.

He's been wrong again and again about what drives realignment.

And he runs around challenging other's opining, and trying to discredit other's POVs, without offering anything remotely successful in explaining conference realignment.

He almost seems like he is spinning.

And regardless, I'm am perfectly sanguine to continue to advance my hypothesis, since it keeps predicting with reasonable accuracy the actions of the players regarding realignment.

:-)

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Did you not want Tulane in the Big 12, or am I confusing you with MANGINOHURLZ?

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Apparently MANGINOHURLZ had less than half a brain...

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

KU Track and Field sure seems to be on the rise lately. Hopefully this will bring the Kansas Relays back to national prominence. This is a good justification for leaving the track in Memorial Stadium.

Having a major track event at KU every year has got to make us more attractive to other conferences.

jaybate 1 year, 10 months ago

Phoghorn,

Of course it does. McNeil operates on oxygen starved thinking.

The next big move for collegiate sports is into the Olympic sports including track and field and its logical TV tie in to Olympic sports.

Over the next 20 years, football and basketball are fully matured TV markets.

This beast of D1 athletics has to have a growth market, or it will flatten and implode.

My hypothesis is that realignment has only two drivers:

a) building regional state alliances in the fight to see who controls privatization of energy and distribution infrastructures; and

b) stealing existing sports revenues.

There is no real revenue growth being achieved by realignment. What is happening is that since football and basketball are matured TV sports markets that aren't going to grow substantially more (i.e., faster than the rate of population growth), the only way to grow is by eating up your opposition. Each major is skimming out some cream, where it can.

Olympic sports, including the track and field segment you rightly mention, is the huge growth potential in D1 sports revenues.

Everyone with half a brain and sufficient oxygen can figure this one out without a calculator. :-)

What realignment does (outside of building the political economic alliances for certain critical energy and distribution infrastructure via privatization, is to line up the big football, and basketball schools, so that they are ready to largely corner the development of Olympic sports at the D1 level.

NCAA Olympic sports will become a highly profitable feeder system for the Olympics, and other World Games, just as football feeds the NFL and basketball feeds the NBA and all the other pro leagues around the world.

Really, McNeil can't think his way out of a paper bag with a machete. :-)

Don't let him deter you from your good sense, whether you agree with my hypotheses regarding infrastructure expansions tie with conference realignment, or not.

Rock Chalk!

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

The bell you hear ringing is the signal that Jaybate has delivered a knockout punch. I know that REALDEAL_WITH_MANGINOHURLZ must not have been following KU for too long or he would not have admitted to never hearing anybody claim that KU-OSU was their favorite rivalry. That rivalry was HUGE during the Hank Iba - Phog Allen years.

Guess who won the Big 12 before KU started its 8 straight? Yeah, OSU. Who gave us Coach Self? No, not Illinois, it was OSU. Where did Coach Sutton grow up? Yeah, Bucklin, KS. Who recruited him? Coach Phog Allen and Coach Hank Iba.

While OSU has been down since Coach Sutton left, they still beat KU on a regular basis in Gallagher-Iba Arena.

Oh, and lest we forget, OSU has one of the classiest fan bases you will ever see. Good folks.

ROCK CHALK!

Phoghorn 1 year, 10 months ago

Lincoln wanted KU to join the B1G. (From a source).

Eric Dawson 1 year, 10 months ago

Phoghorn, everything about your post is right except "This is a good justification for leaving the track in Memorial Stadium," which is so wrong.

The Relays are a good justification for getting the track out of Memorial and into Rock Chalk Park. Building a top flight track there (one matching only a handful of track facilities nationwide) will actually attract not only the Relays but other big meets, perhaps even Olympic trials. THAT is the type of thing that will make KANSAS more attractive to everyone.

And as a result, with the old track no longer at issue, Memorial Stadium can be renovated and expanded in order to keep working on the CFB improvements that Zenger has shown he is determined to achieve.

ahpersecoachingexperience 1 year, 10 months ago

Wrong again Jaybate! X games and mma are where it's at. Turn the hill into a snow pipe, wesco into a skate park, and let Hudy train any pencil neck geek into a clone of Brock Lessnar and conferences will be at our doorstep!

Bruce Bertsch 1 year, 10 months ago

About the B1G...Why would they want Pitt when they already have PSU? One is much more valuable than the other even after the scandals.

Why is everyone enamored with FSU? All you get is Tallahassee and a slightly above average program. This isn't the old Bobby Bowden FSU, its Jimbo version which is more akin to Iowa State than OU or Texas.

IMHO West Virginia was a mistake. If you want TV viewers, forget playing on Sundays and go get BYU.

Please get rid of the "Everyone wants to recruit Texas" attitude. Ask Big Game Bob in Norman how is Texas recruiting is going lately. With the emergence of aTm and the addition of two more D1 programs what is really left? If you think that Alabama or Georgia is creaming their jeans to get at Texas recruits, I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.

Bottom line is that nothing should happen until the ACC v Maryland is resolved. I see it heading to Federal Court and everything hinging upon whether or not exit fees are an illegal restraint that violates anti-trust law. BTW, if the turtles win on that basis, realignment will be a free-for-all as it also likely would mean that the GOR is not valid.

Robert Brown 1 year, 10 months ago

West Virigina wasn't a mistake; TCU was a mistake. We would be better off with Louisville and West Virginia. TCU adds no value to a media contract and because it is now in a major conference become a desireable location for 3 and 4 star athletes because of its location is the middle of a fertile recruiting area.

PeterGriffin 1 year, 10 months ago

However,typing West Virigina in your opening sentence was a glaring mistake. All in fun no malice intended .

jgkojak 1 year, 10 months ago

I think Penn State is without power right now - they're lucky the B1G didn't kick them to the curb. So if they want Pitt now is the time - PSU couldn't say squat.

Tony Bandle 1 year, 10 months ago

We're discussing leaving the track in Memorial?? YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING!!

Tell you what..let's leave the track in Memorial and build a new football stadium in Rock Chalk Park. We can put a retractable roof, hang a 100,000 s.f. four sided video board and charge $50 for a pizza!!

This idea is no dumber than the first one!!!

IT MUST BE FRIDAY!!!

Brian Skelly 1 year, 10 months ago

"Big 12 picks last". Thats the reality in my estimation. Not truly last, but certainly after the Big 10 or SEC. I think it beheaves us to think that way. That doesnt mean it will be that way. Maybe Bevo throws its @#$% around to the benefit of the conference and convinces all 2,4,6 teams we want that the Big 12(14,16) is the place to be.

I still think the ideas of Big 10 goes after the ACC AAU schools -- UVA, UNC, GaTech, BC -- makes sense. All moves expand their TV base... which as they have show is really what they are after. Yes, I know KU is an AAU school. It's also bring in KC which is dwarfed by the markets those other 4 could bring. Lets just be honest about that part and not keep hope alive here with this idea. I think the 'good' for the Big 12 is here is none of those schools are likely targets... with exception of GaTech because of Atlanta.

The SEC is a different animal here. If they decided the wanted FSU and/or Clemson they'd get them. The Georgia, Florida, South Carolina resistances to those guys is real and not false. But to get what is likely the best and likely 2nd (or close) best program that is 'on the list' (im not counting Notre Dame here) my guess is there could be some movement there. If not? The VaTech / NC State thing to me still has tons of merit. New markets and geographical continuity.

The reality in my mind is that IF they go East and get FSU / Clemson they wont stop there. Getting those guys to join likely requires a move to 14 or 16. As to whom that would be? My guess is any of those who arent picked prior are in play. After those two Id try to go get GaTech and Miami. Yea or nea? Try NC State / Va Tech. Next? Id go get Louisville -- they should have done that before -- and/or some combo of Pitt/Cincy... Id even gun for Syracuse, but my guess is they'd never do it.

There are going to options whichever what this falls. The question is will be they great options (maybe) or lesser options (possibly). Again, I just dont think we have much pull unless Bevo decides this is happening -- and lets face it, thats whats needed here -- we maybe on to something.

Robert Brown 1 year, 10 months ago

Boston University is on the AAU, not Boston College

Kevin Huffman 1 year, 10 months ago

I think the Big Ten would go to 16 and the SEC would go to 16. I still think that we'd only go to 12 most likely.

I mean what is the ACC at right now w/ Maryland leaving. They're at 14 right now themselves, right?

IF there are players this is how I would see it going down:

1st step - Big Ten adds BC & UVA. 2nd step - SEC adds N.C. State & Va. Tech.....some have said UNC & Duke, but they always want to add more Southern "football" type of schools.

That reduces the ACC right there down to 10.

I think both of those would happen rather rapidly, back-to-back.

ACC reacts by adding Cincinnati, UConn, South Florida & Temple...back to that same 14.

THEN I think the Big XII jumps and adds FSU & Clemson before everything's hunky-dorey.

BOTH the ACC & Big XII at 12, SEC & Big Ten at 16 and PAC at 12.

That's three with 12 and two with 16.

jhawkrulz 1 year, 10 months ago

I always think the Big XII is the most vulnerable conference. When you look at each conference, now specifically the ACC and Big XII, the schools in each are way better in the ACC. When you look at the Big XII, we have OSU, KSU, ISU, Baylor, and TCU, which no other major (BCS) conference would want. If TV markets are driving the decision, there are half of the schools in the Big XII that people won't be going after. I actually think the ACC will stick together, they might lose a NC State, or one other team, but the Big Ten will go to 16 (and will be the first). If the offer is made to KU. Accept it, and work out the fees just like the rest of the schools did.

AirCapJay 1 year, 10 months ago

I agree with that. I think KU would ultimately be better off in the Big Ten.

Kyle Sybesma 1 year, 10 months ago

Maybe it's in a post somewhere but I didn't see anything on the impact of Notre Dame. If the SEC strikes with NC State & V Tech or the B1G strikes again at UNC & G Tech I think it would cause a domino effect putting Notre Dame on the table again. Florida State has W Virginia as a travel partner and Notre Dame makes 12 IF that's as far as they want to go but since the ACC is falling apart the Big 12 may as well go to the magic 16. Add Syracuse, Clemson, Pittsburgh and Boston College. (Other possibilities: Duke, Louisville, UConn, Virginia)

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

Are you sure Miami and FSU feel the same way?

David Gisi 1 year, 10 months ago

Don't be fooled into thinking that ND is any more committed to the ACC than they were to the Big East. It's basically 1 more game of commitment. With Pitt's move to the ACC, ND has 2 longtime rivals in Pitt and BC. This year they also played Miami and Wake. So they jump from 4 games to 5. Only concern for them is they want (and need) to maintain games with B1G (especially Michigan). If Michigan (and the rest of the B1G) pushes away from scheduling ND, they would probably have to go all in with ACC. And it has been rumored that Michigan has considered pulling the plug on that scheduling. ND needs Michigan more than Michigan needs ND.

Chris Gilbertson 1 year, 10 months ago

I'm pretty sure that after I think it's 2014 that ND and Michigan will no longer be playing each other, I could be wrong, but I'm about 80% sure of it though

Chris Gilbertson 1 year, 10 months ago

I just googled it and there is an espn.com article saying that the ND v Michigan series will be ending in 2014 http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/59833/poll-end-of-michigan-nd-series

Woody Cragg 1 year, 10 months ago

You guys all have waaaaaaaaaaay too much time on your hands. Occaisionally I resort to a book or hobby to further my somewhat trivial existance. Just saying...

Chris1955 1 year, 10 months ago

Global, you have to understand that conference realignment is the 3rd season after football and basketball. Why else would this article receive 130+ comments when nothing that we know of is going on?

Chris Shaw 1 year, 10 months ago

BTW, if you guys like "Rumors" and you enjoy reading about this stuff. Calhawk and Alex on theshiver have done a really good job over the last 3 months of posting the latest rumorville stuff going on. Take it however you want, but at least it keeps you up to speed with the main blogs across the country and what their saying.

http://theshiver.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15366&page=15

PeterGriffin 1 year, 10 months ago

I'd rathet have Topuka Hayden than Topuka High.

mahkmood 1 year, 10 months ago

I think there are going to be only 3 "super conferences" instead of 4. The 3 super conferences will each have their own network and be rich: PAC, B1G, SEC. The B12, ACC, and BigEast dissolve. The B12 has good teams, but too many small markets for a network... bye. The ACC has too many wanted markets sandwiched between B1G and SEC networks... bye.

B1G picks up: UNC, GT, UT, KU, FSU, UVA SEC picks up: OU, NCST, VT, WVU PAC jumps east: Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, ND, BC

Some other schools will get lucky and fall in to one of these big 3 conferences. The leftovers will join the not so super "Super Conference USA", or be independents.

Kyle Sybesma 1 year, 10 months ago

It will be four 16 team conferences with an eight team playoff starting with the conference championship. Those four champions will play in a semifinal and then the National Championship.

mahkmood 1 year, 10 months ago

What happens to the likes of Boise State, San Diego State, Houston, Army, Navy... maybe even Baylor, KSU, TT, TCU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Louisville which possibly get left out of the 4 x 16 conferences. I don't see the 4 x 16 conference playoff scenario happening. There are too many big universities that will get left out.

jhawkrulz 1 year, 10 months ago

Were you going to give any examples of Big Universities? Make sure they include a TV demographic.

JayHawkFanToo 1 year, 10 months ago

If we are going to have three super conferences, why not just two? or one Super Conference with all the current BCS teams as members and the top 8 have a playoff to determine the champion in football?

The Big 12 has absolutely optimized revenue and member teams get the highest share of any conference, why change that? To maintain the revenue, any team that comes to the conference would have to bring close to $30M per year in additional revenue to the conference just to maintain the status quo; I just don't see that many schools that would add that much income.

In addition , the conference footprint, West Virginia notwithstanding, is better than most, meaning shorter trips for the teams and fans.

Also, no one has come up with a better number of teams for a conference. With 10 members you play everybody in FBall leaving schools 3 out of conference games, and in BBall you play and home and away games with all conference schools. With a larger number of teams you just cannot do this.

Bigger is not necessarily better, and change for the sake of change is not that much better either, Why change something that seems to be working well for its members? Coach Self has said pretty much the same thing.

mahkmood 1 year, 10 months ago

Wait... my previous post won't happen because the U.S. government crashes treasury bills by Q4 2014. Financial armageddon and political polarization results in the succession of the state of Texas, which creates its own country and currency (100% backed by gold with Ron Paul's face on the bills)... which expands by absorbing the other red states. The Orange Bloods finally get what they have wanted all along... Austin is the national capitol of the Peoples Republic of Texas, characterized by: Guns, beer, gas-guzzlers, cattle-ranches, NASCAR, country music, fast-food, Wal-Mart, bible thumpin, and the Texas Network (UT, OU, OSU, KU, KSU, NU, MU, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, MissState, Tenn, UK, Hoosiers, Georgia, GT, UNC, USouthCarolina, Duke, NCST, Notre Dame, WVU, Clemson)

Kevin Huffman 1 year, 10 months ago

Pretty easy. Just destroy current conferences and realign by geography.

West, South Midwest East

16 for out West = UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Orgeon State, Washington, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas & Texas Tech (PAC-12 & SW Big XII stalwarts)

16 for in the South = Florida, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas A&M & Kentucky (mixture of SEC & southern ACC schools (south of NC)

16 for in the Midwest = Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri & Arkansas (MOST of Big Ten, Northern Big XII schools + former Big XII MU & former SWC school Arkansas)

16 for in the East = UConn, Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt, Penn State, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Duke, Notre Dame & Cincinnati (mostly ACC including some potential future ACC current Big East schools)

I think in the scenario I have above only a VERY few schools get screwed....namely the ones I can see right away are Baylor, Vandy, South Florida & TCU. They could be the start of an 8 to 12 team "Off Chance" league....IN CASE one of them could out of the clear blue be in contention. Maybe some other schools like BYU, Temple, San Diego State & Houston could constitute that conference or something.

mahkmood 1 year, 10 months ago

That seems really logical, but UCLA, Stanford, and Cal academia will have nothing to do with the likes of TT and Okie State. KSU and Arkansas academics in the B1G, not going to get approval. Your idea makes great geographical sense, but there's more than geography at play, and that isn't going to change. B1G is the AAU conference. PAC is primarily a blue state conference philosophically, and that's why I see the PAC jumping over the midwest to the northeast if the ACC implodes.

jhawkrulz 1 year, 10 months ago

You state west, and you have Oklahoma and Oklahome State...I'm confused.

Also, from a TV perspective, there is absolutely no reason to have those two in the same conference.

Look at Iowa as the state that figured it out. Iowa State and Iowa one in the Big Ten one in the Big XII. Why they can cash in on two networks.

KU/KSU and OU/OSU would be better served in two separate conferences.

If/When it goes into superconferences. KSU and OSU would be better serviving on their own, then taggin along with their bigger sibblings.

mahkmood 1 year, 10 months ago

I saw some articles that speculated the PAC was one of the "two other conferences", but I'm wondering if the two other conferences are the Big East FB + newly formed Big East Catholic BB. This would create a 28 team FB alliance, and a 35 team BB alliance. The BB talent would dwarf the B1G, PAC, and SEC. The FB would be good but still trail behind the SEC and B1G in my opinion. Wondering how much the tv networks would pay into such an alliance. Would need to be something like $840 million plus another $100 for the 7 BB only schools? Approaches $1 billion total payout needed.

jgkojak 1 year, 10 months ago

CBS article is interesting - that tells me the B12s big play is to enter into some sort of agreement that makes it less profitable to re-align than to stay put - which makes total sense.

I still think in that climate WVU was a mistake and we would have been better off with BYU - we become kind of like the Pac-12 - separate from all that eastern stuff going on and they pretty much leave us alone.

Heck, they probably should have done a 20 team conference --

The Big 20 - the east and west divisions play complete round-robin bball and football (as the Big 12 does now) and they play a champ game between the two divisions -

EAST ISU, KU, KSU, OU, OSU, Texas, Baylor, TTCH, Colorado, Utah

WEST Old Pac-10

hotrodm 1 year, 10 months ago

The Big 12 fell asleep and watched Louisvile go to the ACC. That was a big mistake, thank Texas for that scew up. Expand or die Big 12. Go after FSU and Clemson now and let them join the lawsuit against the ACC, with Maryland on the exit fee. Get to at least 12 schools ASAP, before it is too late.

Ryan Gerstner 1 year, 10 months ago

Not really. It depends what your goal is. If your goal is to only add schools, then yeah, they blew it because Louisville is a pretty decent athletic add. If you think league finances matter, then the league made the right decision. It supposedly would have cost about $2 million per school/yr. so if you think KU should have given up $20 million over the next 10 years to call Louisville a league member, then I would say it's a mistake. What people forget is that the league had the choice between WV and Louisville. Football money is 70-80% of TV contracts and WV is a way better football brand than Louisville.

mahkmood 1 year, 10 months ago

I don't see how Clemson is more valuable than Syracuse or Miami. I don't like Clemson. I don't like TCU either. I hope the Clemson talk goes away.

Ryan Gerstner 1 year, 10 months ago

Clemson is a better football school than both of those choices (at the moment). The other thing you have to look at is geographic proximity to FSU. I personally think Miami is a better long term play because they'll eventually get football going again and Miami would bring tremendous attention to the league. Miami is a little bit toxic at the moment because they look bad because of their recent cheating transgressions.

jhawkrulz 1 year, 10 months ago

Things that matter:

1) Academics

2) TV Markets

3) National Brand

Things that don't matter:

1) Geography

2) Rivalries

3) How good they are in Football

CrystalJones 1 year, 10 months ago

I don't care what happens to us, as long as we don't have to deal with KSU fans anymore. Just like another poster said, I am so sick of them lording it over us in football for the past 20 years. We had a brief moment of success, but now they're back to steamrolling us.

And I know we dominate everybody in basketball, and that's nice...but, hell, Butler and Gonzaga are basketball schools. I wish we were also a football school. I can't stand the farmers down the road, and I hate it that they won another conference championship and then look down their noses at us.

Let's just separate ourselves from the farmers...getting really tired of those jerks. Maybe Charlie can start kicking their butts.

Robert Brown 1 year, 9 months ago

Then get better. Don't give up the fight.

Josh Galler 1 year, 9 months ago

Big 12 and ACC Merge with 5 teams after Big 10 adds UVA and GA Tech SEC adds NC State and Va Tech, Big 12 adds FSU, Miami, Clemson, Louisville, Pitt, BYU, then the remainding ACC Teams, Syracuse, UNC, Duke, SC, BC, Wake adds Cincy, Temple, USF, UCONN, ND (FB agmt still in tact), and UCF for 12 teams, Pac 12 adds Boise State, SDSU, SMU and Houston

Using KU as sample, KU plays all 15 teams for the conference season, one season play all home games vs your division and road gams vs the other division and alternate each year, and for the 16th conference game would be against your "rival" so KU play all 14 games vs one team, and then play home and home vs KSU. in FB for the you play 7 games in division and your rival home and home and then have a true championship game vs the other division, and team can schedule 4 non-con winnable games

The rivals for this possibility be these of course some of rivals be what? ISU-BYU KU-KSU OU-OSU UT-Tech TCU-Baylor WVU-Pitt FSU-Miami Louisville-Clemson

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